去库斜率放缓，关注淡季供需变化

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lithium carbonate is "Volatile" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (12/15 - 12/19), lithium salt prices showed a strong trend. The closing prices of LC2601 and LC2605 increased by 14.4% and 14% respectively. SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot average prices rose by 3.3%. The price of lithium hydroxide also increased, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate decreased [1][11]. - The sharp rise in lithium carbonate prices was due to two factors: the publicity of canceling 27 expired mining licenses by Yichun Natural Resources Bureau and the first environmental assessment publicity of the Jianxiawo lithium mine project. However, the environmental assessment is a normal approval process, and the time required may be shorter if post - evaluation is used. The SMM weekly social inventory continued to decline, but the de - stocking slope slowed down significantly to 1044 tons, and the trading sector continued to accumulate inventory. The weekly output increased by 47 tons, with a slight decrease in mica and small increases in spodumene and salt lakes. Before the resumption of production at Jianxiawo, the supply side is expected to have no significant increase. The rapid rise in the futures market made it difficult for spot transactions to keep up, and downstream buyers were resistant to high - priced lithium salts. If large manufacturers resume production, the de - stocking slope will slow down and turn to inventory accumulation, and prices may回调, but the depth of the回调 needs to be observed. In the medium - and long - term, the strategy of buying on dips is recommended [2][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Supply - side Resumption Projects Delayed, and the Futures Market Rose Strongly - Last week (12/15 - 12/19), lithium salt prices showed a strong trend. LC2601 and LC2605 closing prices increased, and SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot average prices rose. The price of lithium hydroxide also increased, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate decreased [1][11]. - The sharp rise in lithium carbonate prices was due to the publicity of canceling 27 expired mining licenses by Yichun Natural Resources Bureau and the first environmental assessment publicity of the Jianxiawo lithium mine project. The SMM weekly social inventory continued to decline, but the de - stocking slope slowed down significantly. The weekly output increased slightly, and before the resumption of production at Jianxiawo, the supply side is expected to have no significant increase. The rapid rise in the futures market made it difficult for spot transactions to keep up, and downstream buyers were resistant to high - priced lithium salts. If large manufacturers resume production, the de - stocking slope will slow down and turn to inventory accumulation, and prices may回调, but the depth of the回调 needs to be observed. In the medium - and long - term, the strategy of buying on dips is recommended [2][14] 3.2 Weekly Industry News Review - Since early December, the new energy industry chain has seen price fluctuations, and lithium iron phosphate cathode material manufacturers have raised prices collectively. Some leading enterprises have proposed price increases of 2000 - 3000 yuan/ton, and the price increase trend is expected to continue until the fourth quarter of next year [15]. - Yichun Natural Resources Bureau announced the proposed cancellation of 27 mining rights, and Jiangte Motor has submitted an objection application for the mining right of the Shiziling lithium - containing porcelain stone mine in Yifeng County, Jiangxi Province [15]. - On December 19, the first environmental assessment information of the lithium mine project in Zhenkouli - Fengxin County, Yichun was publicized. After the environmental assessment process, the resumption of production of the Jianxiawo lithium mine by CATL still needs to obtain permits from different departments [16]. - Tianqi Lithium announced that the third - phase expansion project of chemical - grade lithium concentrate of Talison has been completed and put into trial operation. After the project is put into production, the total production capacity of Talison's lithium concentrate project will reach 2.14 million tons/year [16]. 3.3 Key High - frequency Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain 3.3.1 Resource End: Lithium Concentrate Prices Rose with the Futures Market - The spot average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased from $1220/ton to $1318/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 8.0% [12] 3.3.2 Lithium Salt: Output Increased Slightly, and the De - stocking Slope Slowed Down Marginally - The SMM weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate continued to decline, but the de - stocking slope slowed down significantly to 1044 tons, and the trading sector continued to accumulate inventory. The weekly output increased by 47 tons, with a slight decrease in mica and small increases in spodumene and salt lakes. Before the resumption of production at Jianxiawo, the supply side is expected to have no significant increase [2][14] 3.3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Lithium Iron Phosphate Prices are Expected to Continue to Rise - Since early December, lithium iron phosphate cathode material manufacturers have raised prices collectively. Some leading enterprises have proposed price increases of 2000 - 3000 yuan/ton, and the price increase trend is expected to continue until the fourth quarter of next year [15] 3.3.4 Terminal: Power Battery Installation Maintained High Growth - The power battery installation in China maintained high growth [60]