烧碱：后期仍有压力，PVC：趋势偏弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Caustic Soda: The later period still faces pressure. Although there was a rebound driven by macro anti - involution sentiment and capital position transfer, fundamentally, it remains in a high - production and high - inventory pattern. Demand is weak due to low alumina profits, seasonal decline in non - aluminum downstream demand, and export pressure. Supply is under great pressure during the winter when chlor - alkali enterprises have a low - maintenance season, and enterprises face high - inventory pressure with the need to reduce prices to clear inventory before the Spring Festival. The valuation is suppressed by alumina production cut expectations, and without production cuts by manufacturers, it's difficult to have a significant rebound [5][6]. - PVC: The trend is weak. The high - production structure is difficult to change in the short term. In 2026, attention can be paid to the maintenance intensity in spring and summer. The export market competition pressure increased in 2025, and the growth rate of export demand may slow down. Domestic demand related to the real estate remains weak, and enterprises have low inventory - stocking willingness. Although there are short - term rebounds, the overall high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term, but supply - side production cuts in the maintenance peak season next year can be expected [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Caustic Soda Price and Spread - Contradiction between Bulls and Bears - Bears: High supply and high inventory, with sample enterprise inventory up 50% year - on - year and significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival; continuous alumina production cut expectations; about 3% increase in new capacity in the next year while most non - aluminum downstream demand only grows at 2 - 3%; slowdown in export growth and limited support from the 50 - alkali - 32 - alkali spread structure; changes in delivery areas and delivery premiums [13]. - Bulls: Anti - deflation and anti - involution trends, low profit, low absolute price, small contango in the far - month contracts, and high potential returns; significant losses in the integrated profit of caustic soda and PVC, with marginal plants in Shandong approaching cash - flow costs; shutdown of overseas chlor - alkali plants and continuous expansion of the export market [13]. - Spread Situation - The basis of caustic soda 01 fluctuates, and the 1 - 5 month spread weakens [16]. - The 50 - alkali - 32 - alkali spread and the flake - alkali - liquid - alkali spread decline, which is negative for caustic soda [34][36]. - The export market has support but also faces structural adjustment. In October 2025, China's liquid caustic soda exports were 330,000 tons, up 10.39% year - on - year and down 8.90% month - on - month. From January to October, the cumulative export of liquid caustic soda was 2.944 million tons, up 41.93% year - on - year, and the cumulative export of caustic soda was 3.49 million tons, up 41.7% year - on - year. It is expected that caustic soda exports will increase by at least 30% year - on - year in 2025, exceeding 4 million tons for the whole year [23]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Supply - Production and Inventory: The average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China is 84.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5%. The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above is 464,700 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 1.66% and a year - on - year increase of 52.34%. The capacity - to - inventory ratio is 29.41%, a week - on - week increase of 0.41% [44][45][47]. - New Capacity: There will be continuous production in 2025 and 2026, with a capacity growth rate of over 3%. In 2025, the planned new capacity is 1.9 million tons, and in 2026, it is expected to be 2.56 million tons [51]. - Cost: The large - scale industrial electricity price in Shandong Province decreased in December, and the cost of caustic soda has limited support. The cost calculation of marginal plants in Shandong is 2,235 yuan/ton [52][55]. - Chlorine - Consuming Downstream: The start - up of propylene oxide is stable with a small loss in profit; the start - up of epichlorohydrin increases with a recovery in profit; the start - up of dichloromethane and chloroform declines with low profit [58][64][69]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Demand - Alumina: In 2025, the alumina capacity expanded significantly, with new capacity of 9.5 million tons expected. As of November 2025, 8.3 million tons of new alumina capacity had been put into production, and it is expected that there will still be 1.7 million tons of planned production. In 2026, the new capacity may reach 13.9 million tons. Currently, the alumina start - up declines, inventory rises, and profit declines. The low - profit situation of alumina leads to cautious procurement of caustic soda, and it is difficult for the alumina industry to expand the demand for caustic soda [74][75][76]. - Other Industries: The pulp industry is in the off - season with compressed terminal profits; the viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing industries have a decline in start - up; the water treatment industry has a stable start - up; the ternary precursor industry has a decline in production [91][103][105][107]. 3.4 PVC Price and Spread - The main contract of PVC changes months, the basis fluctuates and strengthens, and the 1 - 5 month spread fluctuates weakly [112]. 3.5 PVC Supply and Demand - Supply - The start - up of PVC decreased week - on - week. The capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises is 77.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.05% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.23%. The ethylene - based method is at 76.54%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.36% and a year - on - year increase of 0.22%. The calcium - carbide - based method is at 77.74%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.92% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.04% [118][119]. - There will be 2.2 million tons of new PVC capacity put into production in 2025, and there is no new capacity in 2026. Currently, the Shandong chlor - alkali plant is in a loss situation, approaching the cash - flow cost [122][124]. - PVC production enterprises have a slight inventory accumulation, and the social inventory is at a high level [128]. - Demand - The real - estate terminal demand has not significantly recovered, and the overall start - up of PVC downstream industries decreased month - on - month [133][139]. - In October 2025, the PVC export volume was 312,100 tons, and the cumulative export from January to October was 3.2338 million tons. The single - month export decreased by 9.91% month - on - month and increased by 34.28% year - on - year, and the cumulative export increased by 48.88% year - on - year. India is still the most important destination for China's PVC exports [146]. - The PVC warehouse receipts decreased but are still at a high level [148].