合成橡胶周度报告-20251221

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report - Report Date: December 21, 2025 - Report Author: Yang Honghan - Report Institution: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report Core Viewpoints - Synthetic Rubber: In the short term, it enters a volatile pattern. The previous continuous rise was due to the improvement of butadiene fundamentals and strong expectations for the far - month. However, this week, due to the marginal weakening of overall fundamentals of butadiene and synthetic rubber and the large premium of futures over spot, the speculative nature of futures prices has weakened, leading to a correction. But due to the strong expectations of butadiene still bringing some speculation, it enters a volatile pattern in the short term [4][5] - Butadiene: In the short term, the relatively low absolute price drives downstream periodic replenishment, and the trading situation improves. Overall, butadiene rebounds in the short term, but there is still high - supply pressure in the medium term [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Synthetic Rubber 3.1.1 Supply - Production: The production of high - cis butadiene rubber this cycle is 30,600 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month increase of 7.89%, and the capacity utilization rate is 76.26%, a month - on - month increase of 5.57 percentage points. Next cycle, it is expected that there will be limited changes in domestic butadiene rubber plants [4] - Cost and Profit: The theoretical static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 10,300 - 11,100 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to move up slightly. The valuation logic has switched from cost - side support to NR - BR spread support [4] - Inventory: As of December 17, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory is 34,000 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month increase of 6.45% [4] 3.1.2 Demand - Tire Demand: This week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises has decreased slightly. Currently, the shipment rhythm of each enterprise is slow, the finished product inventory continues to rise, and under the pressure of production and sales, enterprises continue to control production flexibly. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will continue to operate weakly next cycle [4] - Substitute Demand: Currently, the spread between NR - BR main contracts remains at a high level, and the substitute demand remains at a high level. Therefore, the overall demand side of butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4] 3.2 Butadiene 3.2.1 Supply - Production: This cycle (from December 12 to December 18, 2025), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises is 112,400 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 0.87%. Next week, it is expected that the weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises will be about 112,600 tons, a slight increase compared with this cycle [7] - Capacity Expansion: To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and butadiene rubber, butadiene is also in a state of continuous expansion, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries in stages [14][16] 3.2.2 Demand - Synthetic Rubber: In the medium term, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain at a high level, and the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. In the short term, with the reduction of butadiene rubber plant overhauls in December, it is expected that the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber will increase [9] - ABS: The inventory pressure is relatively large, and it is expected that the demand for butadiene will only maintain a constant level, with limited incremental demand [9] - SBS: The operating rate has increased slightly, and it maintains rigid demand for butadiene, with little change [9] 3.2.3 Inventory - This cycle (from December 11 to December 17, 2025), the domestic butadiene inventory has fluctuated slightly, and the total sample inventory has increased by 0.49% compared with last week. Among them, the sample enterprise inventory has increased by 0.73% compared with last week, and the sample port inventory has increased by 0.28% compared with last week [9]