南华期货工业硅产业周报：下方空间有限-20251221

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, there is no driving force, and the market shows a weak and volatile pattern, but winter environmental protection speculation should be vigilant. In the medium - to - long - term, the downward space of industrial silicon prices is limited, and it is cost - effective to lay out forward contracts for peak seasons at low prices. Also, industrial silicon prices are closely linked to the price fluctuations of related varieties such as polysilicon and coking coal [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core driving logic of industrial silicon futures price trends will focus on factors such as the progress of eliminating backward production capacity under the "anti - involution" background, supply - side production cuts due to environmental protection constraints or cost increases, and demand - side production cut expectations due to weak terminal shipments. The industry has expectations for eliminating backward production capacity, but due to the large number of private enterprises and scattered layout, there is insufficient confidence in effective capacity clearance through industry self - discipline. The power cost accounts for 30% of the production cost of industrial silicon, and coal price fluctuations affect the power cost and then the industrial silicon price. In December, there is an expected decline in the start - up rate of industrial silicon production enterprises on the supply side, and downstream polysilicon industry has production cuts, downstream silicone monomer plants have maintenance plans, while the aluminum alloy industry maintains a stable start - up rate [2] 1.2 Industry Operation Suggestions - Sales Management: For enterprises with plans to produce industrial silicon in the future and worried about price drops during sales, the recommended hedging ratio is 20% for selling corresponding futures contracts and 20% for a combined options strategy (buying put options + selling call options) [6] - Procurement Management: For enterprises with plans to produce polysilicon/silicone/aluminum alloy in the future and worried about cost increases when purchasing industrial silicon, if the product price has no correlation, the recommended hedging ratio is 30% for buying corresponding futures contracts and 10% for a combined options strategy (selling put options + buying call options); if the product price is correlated, the recommended hedging ratio is 20% for selling corresponding futures contracts and 20% for a combined futures contract strategy (buying put options + selling call options) [6] - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high industrial silicon inventories and worried about inventory depreciation due to price drops, the recommended hedging ratio is 20% for selling the main futures contract and 10% for a combined options strategy (selling call options + buying put options) [6] 2. Important Information and Events to Watch - No important information was reviewed this week [7] 3. Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Futures Trends: This week, the closing price of the industrial silicon futures weighted index contract on Friday was 8,677 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.15%. The trading volume was 382,100 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 38.35%, and the open interest was 407,000 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 53,000 lots. The month - spread between SI2602 and SI2605 was in a Contango structure, a week - on - week decrease of 60 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts was 9,019 lots, a week - on - week increase of 400 lots. The MACD and moving averages (daily level) show a pattern of "short - position reduction and price increase", and the current price has risen from near the lower - rail of the Bollinger Band to near the middle - rail, with the bandwidth showing signs of widening. Attention should be paid to the support level of 8,000 yuan/ton and the pressure level near the middle - rail of the Bollinger Band [9] - Option Situation: The 20 - day historical volatility of industrial silicon has been fluctuating recently, indicating that the actual price fluctuation range has been gradually expanding. The implied volatility of at - the - money options has been strengthening. The PCR of option open interest has been declining, indicating that the proportion of put option open interest relative to call option open interest has decreased, and the market's bearish sentiment is gradually receding [12] - Capital Trends: The net short - position of key industrial silicon seats has decreased recently, indicating that some institutions are closing their short positions [14] - Month - Spread Structure: The term structure of industrial silicon futures shows a back structure, which is relatively stable [16] - Basis Structure: The basis of the main industrial silicon contract is generally at a normal level [18] 3.3 Spot Data of the Silicon Industry Chain - The prices of various grades of industrial silicon in different regions, industrial silicon powder, and downstream products such as trichlorosilane, polysilicon N - type price index, silicone DMC, and aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged this week, except that the price of aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.23% [20][21] 4. Valuation and Profit 4.1 Tracking of Upstream and Downstream Profits in the Industry Chain - Since reaching the profit low in May, the average profit of the industrial silicon industry has been in a continuous recovery channel. The profit of the polysilicon industry is currently stable. The profit of the aluminum alloy industry is showing a weakening trend, while the profit level of the silicone industry is showing a warming trend [22] 5. Fundamental Analysis 5.1 Upstream - Industrial Silicon - Production and Start - up Rate: The weekly production and start - up rate data of industrial silicon samples in different regions show that there are different degrees of changes. For example, the weekly production of BAIINFO's industrial silicon increased by 400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.64%, and the start - up rate of Shanghai Steel Union's industrial silicon decreased by 0.01%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.79% [25][27] - Inventory: There are various inventory data for industrial silicon in different regions and types, such as the weekly inventory of industrial silicon in Xinjiang, Yunnan, Sichuan, and social inventories in ports like Kunming, Huangpu, and Tianjin [35][36] 5.2 Downstream - Polysilicon - Production and Start - up Rate: The weekly production of domestic polysilicon decreased, with SMM's weekly production decreasing by 100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.40%, and BAIINFO's weekly production decreasing by 140 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.53%. The start - up rate also decreased, with BAIINFO's weekly start - up rate decreasing by 1%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0238 [40] - Inventory: The weekly inventory data of domestic polysilicon shows that the total inventory is 512,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.015%, and there are also changes in the inventories of production enterprises, silicon wafer enterprises, and warehouse receipts [42] 5.3 Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Production and Start - up Rate: The weekly start - up rates of primary and secondary aluminum alloys remained stable, with the start - up rate of primary aluminum alloy unchanged at 60%, and that of secondary aluminum alloy unchanged at 59.8%. The weekly inventory of primary aluminum alloy decreased by 0.13 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.38%, and that of secondary aluminum alloy decreased by 100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.51% [45] 5.4 Downstream - Organic Silicon - The weekly production of organic silicon DMC decreased by 0.07 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.43% [49] 5.5 Terminal - There are data on China's total commercial housing sales area (residential + office + shops), monthly automobile production, and monthly new photovoltaic installed capacity [52]