Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-12-21 12:13Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [3][4]. Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to experience a restructuring in the spandex sector, with a potential upward trend in market conditions. The EU has decided not to impose anti-dumping measures on Chinese tires, which does not alter the competitive advantages for companies expanding overseas [3][4]. - The report highlights the macroeconomic conditions affecting the chemical sector, including stable oil prices, easing pressures in the coal market, and potential reductions in natural gas import costs due to increased export facility construction in the U.S. [3][4]. - The report suggests focusing on specific companies within the spandex, tire, and agricultural chemical sectors, indicating a positive outlook for companies like Huafeng Chemical, Xinxiang Chemical Fiber, and SaiLun Tire [3][4]. Summary by Sections Chemical Macro Judgment - Oil supply is tightening due to OPEC+ production delays and peak shale oil output, while demand is stabilizing with global economic improvements. Brent oil prices are expected to remain in the range of $55-70 per barrel [3][4]. - Coal prices are anticipated to stabilize at a low level, and natural gas costs may decrease as the U.S. accelerates its export infrastructure [3][4]. Spandex Industry Outlook - The spandex industry is currently operating at an 84% utilization rate, with a significant price gap remaining at historical lows. The report anticipates a recovery in market conditions as outdated capacities are phased out [3][4]. - Companies to watch include Huafeng Chemical, Xinxiang Chemical Fiber, and Taihe New Materials [3][4]. Tire Industry Insights - The EU's decision to delay anti-dumping measures on Chinese tires is seen as a positive for companies like Sailun Tire and Zhongce Rubber, as it allows for safer procurement from Southeast Asia or overseas bases [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of global supply chain strategies in light of changing trade barriers [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a diversified investment approach across various chemical sectors, including textiles, agricultural chemicals, and export-oriented products, highlighting specific companies for potential investment [3][4]. - Key materials for growth are identified, including semiconductor materials and OLED panel materials, with specific companies suggested for each category [3][4].