南华期货2026年聚酯年度展望：TA仰望星空，EG脚踏实地

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the polyester production growth rate is expected to gradually slow down, but the demand growth rate is still estimated to reach around 4.5%, maintaining resilience. The terminal weaving orders have declined comprehensively, and the demand negative feedback will gradually spread upstream. The polyester load is expected to decline from late December, with the monthly average polyester load in January - March estimated at 89%, 84%, and 89.5% respectively. In the off - season, the demand side is difficult to drive prices upward [1]. - For MEG in 2026, the main trend will return to a pattern of oscillating and bottom - grinding. With the successive launch of new production capacities, high - level operation and high valuation are difficult to maintain. After the inventory accumulation expectation, the valuation has been rapidly compressed. Although the static supply - demand balance has improved, the cost side may bring additional negative factors. The over - supply expectation will continue to suppress the valuation to clear marginal production capacities, and the "reversal" may depend on macro - narrative drivers [1][19]. - PTA's production cut since the fourth quarter of 2025 has exceeded market expectations, alleviating the PX - TA structural contradiction. In 2026, there are plans to launch two PX production facilities with a total capacity of 5 million tons, expected to be put into operation after the third quarter, while PTA is not expected to have new capacity launches. In the first half of 2026, PTA's supply is expected to be tight against downstream demand, but the final inventory reduction depends on PTA's production cut intensity. PX's supply - demand pattern is favorable, and it is expected to be prone to rising and difficult to fall. However, before the upward driver appears, there may be a phased correction [2][26]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 2: Market Review 3.1.1 MEG Market Review - In Q1 2025, MEG prices dropped significantly due to cost collapse and weakening supply - demand patterns. In January, prices oscillated at a high level; in February, they rebounded slightly and then fell; in March, they were in low - level consolidation [3]. - In Q2 2025, macro and geopolitical factors dominated. The price once hit a low of 3956 yuan/ton and then rebounded. The geopolitical events in June led to price fluctuations [4]. - In Q3 2025, the "anti - involution" sentiment affected prices. The price reached a high of 4580 yuan/ton and then oscillated [4]. - In Q4 2025, MEG's valuation was continuously compressed with inventory accumulation and weak cost, and the price showed an oscillating downward trend [4][5]. 3.1.2 PTA Market Review - In Q1 2025, PTA prices mainly fluctuated with the cost, oscillating between 4700 - 5350 yuan/ton [8]. - In Q2 2025, macro and geopolitical factors dominated. The price once dropped to 4016 yuan/ton and then rebounded [9]. - In Q3 2025, PTA prices oscillated widely between 4500 - 5000 yuan/ton under the influence of cost and macro factors [10]. - In Q4 2025, PTA prices lacked a core driver after a rebound, oscillating narrowly between 4550 - 4800 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Chapter 3: Core Focus Points 3.2.1 MEG - In 2026, MEG will be in an oscillating and bottom - grinding pattern. The short - term weak pattern will continue, with port inventory expected to reach over 1.1 million tons in Q1 2026. The demand negative feedback will spread upstream, and the cost side remains weak [19][20]. - The "anti - involution" as a macro - mainline trading focus may repeatedly dominate the commodity market. The risk points for upward rebound mainly include unexpected reduction in large - scale production facilities, macro - policy benefits, and significant cost increase [23]. 3.2.2 PTA - PTA's production cut since Q4 2025 has alleviated the PX - TA structural contradiction. In 2026, PX has new capacity launch plans, while PTA has none. In H1 2026, PTA supply is tight against downstream demand, and PX is expected to be in a favorable supply - demand pattern, prone to rising and difficult to fall [2][26]. - In the near - term, the negative feedback from the terminal will spread upstream, and PX's valuation may correct. In the long - term, PX is expected to maintain an upward - prone pattern, and PTA's processing fee may be further repaired, but the supply - benefit dynamic balance will be the long - term main logic [28][29]. 3.3 Chapter 4: MEG Industry Analysis 3.3.1 MEG Industry Pattern Analysis - China's MEG production capacity has increased rapidly in recent years, changing from supply shortage to over - supply. In 2025, new capacity launches led to inventory accumulation expectations and a decline in valuation [33]. - Currently, the total MEG production capacity in the Chinese mainland is 30.275 million tons, with ethylene - based capacity accounting for 63% and coal - based capacity accounting for 37%. The production efficiency of coal - based MEG has improved, but it is expected to face pressure in 2026 [33][34]. 3.3.2 MEG Supply Analysis - In 2025, China's MEG production increased mainly due to the increase in operating rates. However, after the launch of new capacity in September, the valuation was under pressure, and the production profit of coal - based MEG was compressed in Q4 [36]. - In terms of product switching, some enterprises switched production between EO and EG based on production efficiency. In 2026, under the background of loose supply - demand, the MEG load is expected to decrease year - on - year [37]. - In 2025, the MEG import volume increased year - on - year, and the import source concentration increased. If India's anti - dumping policy is implemented, the global MEG logistics pattern may be reconstructed [48][49]. 3.3.3 MEG Balance Sheet Analysis - In Q1 2026, MEG is expected to have a slight over - supply, with an estimated cumulative over - supply of about 350,000 tons. In Q2, if the maintenance plans are implemented as scheduled and the polyester demand is in the peak season, there may be a supply - demand gap of about 300,000 tons. The annual demand growth rate is estimated at around 4.5% [57]. 3.4 Chapter 5: PTA Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.4.1 PX - PTA Industry Pattern Analysis - China's PX production capacity expansion has paused since 2024, while PTA has maintained a high - speed growth trend. The PX supply - demand pattern is relatively tight, while PTA has an over - supply problem, and the clearing of backward production capacities and the increase in exports are the main focuses for improving the supply - demand structure [59]. 3.4.2 PTA Supply Analysis and Valuation Feedback - In 2025, PTA's processing fee showed significant fluctuations. In Q4, due to production cuts, the processing fee was repaired, but in the long - term, it is expected to remain under pressure. In 2026, the supply - benefit dynamic balance is expected to be maintained, and the processing fee's upward space is limited [63][64]. 3.4.3 PTA Export Demand Analysis - In 2025, PTA exports decreased year - on - year, mainly due to the new production capacity in Turkey. The export reduction was partially transferred to other countries [67]. 3.4.4 PTA Balance Sheet Analysis - In 2026, the polyester load is expected to decline seasonally. In Q1, PTA is expected to have a slight over - supply of 100,000 - 150,000 tons, and in Q2, there will be a large supply - demand gap. The actual inventory reduction depends on the restart plans of PTA production facilities [74][75]. 3.5 Chapter 6: Polyester Demand Analysis 3.5.1 Start - up Performance - In 2025, polyester production increased by 7.4% year - on - year, and the production capacity growth rate slowed down. Currently, the terminal orders have declined, and the polyester demand load is expected to decline from late December. In Q1 2026, the polyester load is estimated at 89%, 84%, and 89.5% in January - March respectively [77]. 3.5.2 Macro - demand - In 2025, China's social consumer goods retail sales increased by 4% year - on - year, while textile and clothing consumption maintained a low - speed growth. The export demand was affected by international situations, with the growth rate decreasing in the second half of the year [98][103].