南华期货玻璃纯碱产业周报：低位震荡，等待为主-20251221

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradictions affecting the trends of glass and soda ash are the potential cold - repair of some glass production lines from December to the Spring Festival, the influence of policy on supply, the near - month delivery logic and cost - based pricing of soda ash, and the need to digest the high inventory of glass in the middle reaches and the expected oversupply of soda ash [1]. - The short - term trend is unclear and oscillatory. It is recommended to observe and wait, with the 01 contract mainly focusing on warehouse receipt games and the 05 contract more on expectations [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - From December to the Spring Festival, some glass production lines may undergo cold - repair, affecting far - month pricing and market expectations. Policy influence on supply cannot be ruled out, and attention should be paid to changes in next year's supply expectations [1]. - The near - month 01 glass contract follows delivery logic, mainly involving warehouse receipt games. Soda ash is priced based on cost. With new production capacity to be put into operation and high - medium production levels, its valuation has limited upward potential without a trend of production reduction. The expected cold - repair of glass may lead to a decline in soda ash's rigid demand [1]. - Currently, the high inventory of glass in the middle reaches needs to be digested. Soda ash is expected to face oversupply due to new production capacity [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: There are still differences in near - term spot prices. Cold - repair expectations and high inventory in the middle reaches require observation of the persistence of unexpected cold - repair and spot price feedback. Cost and supply expectations affect far - month pricing. - Strategy suggestion: The 01 contract focuses on warehouse receipt games, and the 05 contract is more about expectations. The short - term trend is unclear and oscillatory, so it's advisable to observe [5]. 3.1.3 Basic Data Overview - Glass Spot Prices: The average price of glass in Shahe on December 20, 2025, was 1008 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton from the previous day. The prices in most regions remained stable, with only a few showing slight declines [7][8]. - Glass Futures Prices: On December 19, 2025, compared with the previous day, the glass 05 contract decreased by 21 yuan/ton (- 1.98%), the 09 contract decreased by 18 yuan/ton (- 1.56%), and the 01 contract decreased by 12 yuan/ton (- 1.26%) [8]. - Glass Daily Sales and Production: The sales - to - production ratios in different regions showed fluctuations, with some regions having stable or slightly decreased ratios [9]. - Soda Ash Spot Prices: The prices of heavy and light soda ash in most regions remained stable on December 19, 2025, compared with the previous day [9]. - Soda Ash Futures Prices: On December 19, 2025, compared with the previous day, the soda ash 05 contract decreased by 17 yuan/ton (- 1.42%), the 09 contract decreased by 14 yuan/ton (- 1.12%), and the 01 contract decreased by 17 yuan/ton (- 1.5%) [10][11]. 3.2 Market Information 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: Some glass production lines are expected to undergo cold - repair in December, and the National Development and Reform Commission plans to effectively control high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects starting next year, which may lead to market expectations of supply - side policies [11]. - Negative Information: The high inventory of glass in the middle reaches persists, putting pressure on spot prices. New production capacity of soda ash is expected to be put into operation, increasing long - term supply pressure, and the expected cold - repair of glass may affect the rigid demand for soda ash [12]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Whether the industrial policy will have further clear instructions. - The sales, production, and spot prices of glass, as well as the spot trading volume of soda ash [17]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Unilateral Trends and Capital Movements - The long - short game of the glass 01 contract may continue until near the delivery date. The increase in near - term cold - repair of glass and high inventory in the middle reaches lead to differences in the spot market. The far - month market has expectations of supply reduction and cost increase, which may affect market pricing and expectations [14]. 3.3.2 Basis and Spread Structure - Glass: The 1 - 5 spread of glass has narrowed this week, mainly because of the low valuation of the near - month contract, causing short - sellers to shift to the far - month contract [19]. - Soda Ash: The overall structure of soda ash remains in a C - structure, and the long - term situation may worsen with the release of new production capacity [20]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain - Glass: Natural gas - based glass production lines are in the red, while petroleum - coke and coal - gas production lines have slight profits [33]. - Soda Ash: The cash - flow cost of the ammonia - soda process in Shandong is around 1210 yuan/ton, and that of the combined - soda process (mainly in Central China) is around 1110 yuan/ton [35]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Analysis - Glass: The average monthly net export of float glass is 6 - 7 tons, accounting for 1.4% of the apparent demand, with a limited impact [37]. - Soda Ash: The average monthly net export of soda ash is 18 - 21 tons, accounting for 5.8% of the apparent demand, and the export in November was close to 19 tons, maintaining high - level expectations [37]. 3.5 Supply, Demand, and Inventory 3.5.1 Supply - side and Projection - Glass Supply: The daily melting volume of glass has dropped to around 155,000 tons, and some cold - repair production lines are yet to be realized in December, with an expected further decline in daily melting volume [44]. - Soda Ash Supply: The current daily production of soda ash fluctuates around 102,000 tons. The first 1 - million - ton production line of Alxa Phase II (total 2.8 million tons) started trial production on December 9, and the 700,000 - ton new production capacity of Yingcheng Xindu may be put into operation in mid - to - late December [47]. 3.5.2 Demand - side and Projection - Glass Demand: The high inventory of glass in the middle reaches persists, and the terminal demand remains weak. As of mid - December, the deep - processing orders of glass were 9.7 days, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.6%. The deep - processing raw material inventory was 9 days, a month - on - month decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.1%. The cumulative apparent demand from January to December is estimated to decline by 6.9 - 7% [50]. - Soda Ash Demand: The current rigid demand for soda ash remains stable, with downstream enterprises mainly replenishing inventory at low prices. The combined daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass is 243,700 tons, with a daily rigid demand for soda ash of about 48,800 tons. However, due to the expected cold - repair of glass, the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken. The inventory of photovoltaic glass is continuously increasing, and attention should be paid to the cold - repair expectations of photovoltaic glass. The cumulative apparent demand for soda ash from January to November is estimated to decline by 0.05% [60][61]. 3.5.3 Inventory Analysis - Glass: According to Longzhong data, the total inventory of glass manufacturers is 58.558 million weight - boxes, a month - on - month increase of 331,000 weight - boxes (+ 0.57%) and a year - on - year increase of 25.73%. The inventory days are 26.5 days, an increase of 0.2 days from the previous period. The middle - reach inventories in Shahe and Hubei remain at a high level [67]. - Soda Ash: The total inventory of soda ash is 1.4993 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,000 tons. Among them, the light - soda ash inventory is 727,600 tons (a month - on - month increase of 23,800 tons), and the heavy - soda ash inventory is 771,700 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 18,800 tons). The inventory in delivery warehouses is 450,300 tons (a decrease of 54,300 tons). The combined inventory of factories and delivery warehouses is 1.9496 million tons, with the upstream inventory being depleted and the downstream mainly replenishing inventory at low prices [67].