南华期货塑料产业周报：现货端未见好转，但装置负反馈增多-20251221

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly analysis of the plastic industry by Nanhua Futures, focusing on polyethylene (PE) [1][2] - It assesses the current market situation, provides trading strategies, and forecasts future trends Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The core driver of the current decline is the continuous pessimism in the spot market, leading to a negative cycle of price drops, weak sales, inventory accumulation, and further price drops [2] - Although PE demand is entering the off - season, supply pressure may ease due to increased device maintenance and potential production shifts, limiting the further decline of the futures market [2] - In the short - term, the space for further decline in the PE market is limited, but in the long - term, the large - scale production of non - standard products next year may suppress LLDPE prices [10][11] Group 4: Chapter 1 - Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The spot market's weakness drags down the futures market, but fundamental improvements in supply may limit further declines [2][10] 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: The short - term decline space may be limited, with the price range for L2605 between 6200 - 6500; recommend holding short positions but not adding new ones [13] - Arbitrage strategy: Short - term attention on narrowing the L - P spread; two previous L - P spread narrowing strategies, one to be closed next week, the other stopped out after the holiday [16] 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For inventory management, when product inventory is high, short plastic futures and sell call options to lock in profits and reduce costs; for procurement management, when inventory is low, buy plastic futures and sell put options to lock in procurement costs [17] Group 5: Chapter 2 - This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Shabic's Jubail plant outage (7.8 million tons of PE), Luqing's linear device shutdown due to profit issues, and Yulong's planned production shift of its full - density second - line to HDPE [23] - Bearish information: BASF's 500,000 - ton full - density plant is expected to start production by the end of the year [19] 2.2 Next Week's Important Events - No important events are expected next week [20] Group 6: Chapter 3 - Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: The PE futures market continues to decline; capital flow: 01 - contract positions decline, 05 - contract positions rise rapidly, and the net short positions of major profitable seats decrease slightly [25] - Basis structure: The spot price decline drives the futures down, and the basis weakens further. As of Friday, the basis in North China is - 90 yuan/ton, in East China is - 20 yuan/ton, and in South China is 30 yuan/ton [29] - Spread structure: Due to the low valuation of the 01 - contract and approaching delivery, short - term positive arbitrage opportunities emerge [33] Group 7: Chapter 4 - Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - With the continuous weakness of PE prices, production profits of all production lines are compressed [36] Group 8: Chapter 5 - Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - In December, the inventory reduction is limited. Supply increases due to limited planned maintenance, increased production capacity, and potential import growth; demand weakens as the agricultural film peak season ends [45] 5.2 Supply - Side and Projection - The current PE operating rate is 83.86% (- 0.25%). More devices are under maintenance this week, and several new devices are expected to start production soon [51] 5.3 Import - Export and Projection - PE imports from the US may decrease, but overall imports are expected to increase slightly at the end of this year and early next year. PE exports continue to grow [60] 5.4 Demand - Side and Projection - The average downstream operating rate of PE is 44.3% (- 0.55%), and all major downstream sectors show a downward trend, indicating a clear entry into the off - season [68]