国泰君安期货·能源化工石油沥青周度报告-20251221

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (Dec 11 - 17, 2025), the capacity utilization rate of 92 asphalt refineries in China was 29.2%, a 0.7% week - on - week decrease. The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 27.6%, a 0.2% week - on - week decrease. Although some refineries in East and South China resumed or increased production, a refinery in Shandong intermittently switched to producing residual oil, leading to the decline [4]. - From Dec 10 - 16, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 350,000 tons, an 8.9% week - on - week decrease. Shipments in East and Shandong China decreased significantly. In Shandong, refineries stopped asphalt production, and snow and rain affected demand. In East China, major refineries intermittently reduced production, and high prices curbed purchasing enthusiasm [4]. - Crude oil rebounded significantly this week, but the situation in Venezuela heated up. Traders were worried about geopolitical risks and reduced提货, leading to significant inventory accumulation and a sharp decline in the discount. Asphalt deviated from the strong oil price and remained low [4]. - The average weekly theoretical profit of domestic asphalt processing was - 355 yuan/ton, a 98 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase. The spot price of the asphalt market fluctuated between 3081 - 3086 yuan/ton, with a slowdown in the decline and a narrowing of the price fluctuation range. Five regions saw price drops of 0.9% - 5.4%, with the highest in the Northwest at 5.4%. Only one region, Northeast China, saw a price increase [4]. - Strategies: 1) Unilateral: -; 2) Inter - period: -; 3) Inter - variety: The BU - SC crack spread remained low [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - The report analyzes the supply, demand, price, valuation, and strategies of the asphalt market in the week of Dec 11 - 17, 2025, and points out that asphalt deviated from the strong oil price and remained low due to the situation in Venezuela [4]. 3.2 Price & Spread - Cost Structure: The cost of asphalt is affected by factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma瑞 crude oil. Some raw materials have advantages like not requiring crude oil quotas and being exempt from consumption tax. Different crude oils have different asphalt yields, e.g., Ma瑞 crude oil has a yield of 55% - 60% [7]. - Price and Spread Charts: There are charts showing the relationship between futures and spot prices, such as the relationship between Brent, WTI, SC, and asphalt prices, and the differences between different regions' asphalt prices and production margins [11][12]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Demand - Consumption Distribution: The demand for asphalt mainly comes from the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), the waterproof market, the ship - fuel market, the coking market, and the export market. Seasonal factors also have an impact, although the impact of some markets is limited [20]. - Downstream Shipment: From Dec 10 - 16, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 350,000 tons, an 8.9% week - on - week decrease. The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 7.7%, a 1.3% week - on - week decrease and a 0.6% year - on - year increase [25]. 3.3.2 Supply - Supply Pattern: The supply of asphalt comes from domestic refineries (including state - owned and local refineries) and imports (from countries like South Korea and Singapore). The main supply indicators include inventory, production start - up, production profit, maintenance plans, and monthly production schedules [26]. - Output, Maintenance, and Raw Materials: In January 2026, the planned production volume of domestic asphalt refineries was 1.058 million tons, a 12.4% month - on - month decrease and a 21.5% year - on - year decrease. As of Dec 18, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample refineries was 635,000 tons, a 1.6% increase compared to Dec 15. The inventory of 104 social asphalt warehouses was 1.023 million tons, a 0.6% decrease compared to Dec 15 [29]. - Start - up: There are charts showing the weekly start - up rates of 77 major asphalt refineries in different regions over the years [32][33][35]. - Inventory: There are charts showing the weekly inventory rates of asphalt refineries and the asphalt market in different regions over the years [41].