国泰君安期货·能源化工尿素周度报告-20251221

Report Information - Report Title: Urea Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: December 21, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Yang Honghan [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Urea prices will fluctuate. Medium - term: There is support for urea prices. The driving force is neutral currently, and whether it turns positive depends on the continuity of mid - stream restocking. [2][3][4] Summary by Directory Supply Domestic Supply - Capacity: The expansion pattern of urea production capacity continued in 2025. In 2024, the total new production capacity was 3920000 tons, and in 2025, it was 6640000 tons. There are still plans for new capacity in 2026. [26] - Production: From December 11 - 17, 2025, China's urea production was 1.3659 million tons, a decrease of 19500 tons or 1.41% compared to the previous period. Next week, the weekly production is expected to be around 1.37 million tons, with a slight increase possible in the next cycle. [2] - Cost: Raw material prices have stabilized, and the factory's cash - flow cost line has risen. For example, the cash - flow cost and full cost of fixed - bed plants in Shanxi have changed in recent days due to coal price and cost factor fluctuations. [32] - Profit: Urea cash - flow cost - corresponding profit is currently in a profitable state. [37] - Net Import (Export): During the reserve period, export policies have tightened. The export volume in 2025 (E) shows certain trends, with significant increases in some months. [43] Production Enterprise Maintenance Plan - Many enterprises carried out maintenance in November and December 2025, including Yangmei Fengxi Fertilizer Industry, Linggu Chemical Group, etc. Some maintenance is routine, and some is due to cost - related losses. [28] Demand Domestic Demand - Agricultural Demand: Seasonally, agricultural demand is strengthening. High - standard farmland construction has increased the demand for urea from corn. The production cost, inventory, and production profit of compound fertilizers also reflect the demand situation. [49][52][56] - Industrial Demand: - Compound Fertilizer: The production capacity utilization rate, production cost, inventory, and production profit of compound fertilizers show the industry's fundamentals. [58] - Melamine: The production profit, market price, production volume, and production capacity utilization rate of melamine are presented. [59][60][61] - Real Estate: The demand from the real estate industry for panels has limited support, but panel exports are resilient. [62] Inventory - Factory Inventory: On December 17, 2025, China's total urea enterprise inventory was 1.1797 million tons, a decrease of 54500 tons or 4.42% compared to the previous week. De - stocking was mainly concentrated in North, Northeast, and Northwest China, while some main production and sales areas had slight inventory accumulation. [3][68] - Port Inventory: As of December 18, 2025 (week 51), China's urea port sample inventory was 138000 tons, an increase of 15000 tons or 12.20% compared to the previous period. [3][68] International Urea - Price: The report shows the price trends of Chinese large - granular urea FOB, Baltic large - granular urea FOB, Middle East large - granular urea FOB, and Brazilian large - granular urea CFR from 2018 - 2025. [71][72][73][74][75] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term fluctuating, medium - term bullish. Near the time point of the trading peak - season expectation. - Spread: The 1 - 5 month spread is gradually entering a fluctuating pattern. After the premium of the 05 contract is compressed, it is recommended to take a long position in the 5 - 9 spread at low levels. - Cross - variety: Not available currently. [4]