多晶硅：预计盘面宽幅震荡态势：工业硅：逢高布空思路，关注供应扰动

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon: Adopt a strategy of shorting at high prices and pay attention to supply disturbances. The market is expected to be in a situation of weak supply and demand, with short - term emotional speculation potentially driving up the price, but the upside space is limited [1][7]. - Polysilicon: The futures market is expected to experience wide - range oscillations. The supply - demand pattern is also weak, and although the establishment of a platform company boosts market confidence, the upside is restricted due to weak demand [2][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - Industrial silicon: From December 1 to December 19, 2025, the reference prices of mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices of three major ports/warehouses for different grades of industrial silicon remained relatively stable, with only minor price adjustments on a few days [11]. 2. Industrial Silicon Supply Side - Smelting and Raw Material Ends - Supply: This week, the weekly production of industrial silicon decreased slightly. In December, the reduction in production in the southwest region increased, and although some factories in Xinjiang resumed production, the overall production from November to December decreased. The social inventory decreased by 0.8 million tons, the factory inventory increased by 0.55 million tons, and the overall industry inventory decreased by 0.25 million tons [3]. - Demand: The downstream demand for industrial silicon is weak. In the polysilicon sector, the weekly production schedule has decreased; in the organic silicon sector, although the weekly production has increased and some monomer plants have resumed production after maintenance, the price - support logic is difficult to sustain due to the off - season and high inventory; in the aluminum alloy sector, the procurement behavior is rational; the export volume in the fourth quarter has shrunk significantly [3]. 3. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Polysilicon - Supply: The weekly production of polysilicon decreased slightly in the short term. In December, some manufacturers reduced production, while others resumed production, so the monthly production did not show a significant decrease. The inventory of silicon material manufacturers has reached 300,000 tons, and the cost may continue to rise [4]. - Demand: The weekly production schedule of silicon wafers decreased. In December, the production schedule decreased due to the decline in terminal demand, but the silicon wafer price is expected to stabilize and rise [4]. 4. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Organic Silicon - The average price of DMC has shown a certain trend of change, and the monthly operating rate of the DMC industry has also fluctuated over time. The monthly production of DMC and its year - on - year change, as well as the factory inventory, all have their own seasonal characteristics. The export volume of primary - form polysiloxane and its year - on - year change, and the profit calculation of the DMC industry also reflect the industry's operating conditions [27][31]. 5. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Aluminum Alloy - The price of recycled aluminum ADC12 has seasonal characteristics, and the monthly operating rate of the recycled aluminum industry has also changed over time. The profit calculation of the recycled aluminum industry and the monthly sales volume of domestic automobiles also show certain trends [31][33].