商贸零售行业周报：多政策出台推进扩大内需，服务消费环比加速增长-20251221

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the retail industry, indicating a favorable investment environment supported by multiple policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [2][5]. Core Insights - The retail index increased by 6.66% from December 15 to December 19, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.94 percentage points, ranking first among Shenwan's primary industries [2][22]. - A series of policies have been implemented to promote domestic circulation and the construction of a domestic demand system, positioning the retail sector as a key focus for nurturing domestic demand [5][6]. - The retail sector is expected to benefit from systematic support for quality and service transformation during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with core companies likely to see earnings inflection points ahead of expectations [2][5]. - Offline retail formats are experiencing stable growth, with significant improvements in same-store sales due to the adoption of the "Fat Transformation" model [9][11]. - In November 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 1.3% year-on-year, below market expectations, influenced by high base effects from previous policies [12][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Views of the Week - Multiple policies are being coordinated to advance the construction of a domestic demand system, with offline retail formats continuing to recover [5][6]. - The retail sector is identified as a critical area for fostering domestic demand through innovative development [5][6]. 2. Market Performance - The retail index's performance of +6.66% positions it as the top performer among industries, while the social service index increased by 2.66% [22][23]. - Key stocks in the retail sector saw significant gains, with Baida Group up by 51.60%, Lihua Shares by 31.33%, and Shanghai Jiubai by 30.47% [25][34]. 3. Policy Developments - Recent policies focus on enhancing domestic demand and consumer spending, with specific measures to support the retail sector [6][19]. - The "Fat Transformation" model is being adopted by major retail companies to improve operational efficiency and profitability [9][10]. 4. Consumer Trends - The online retail growth rate has slowed due to the pre-emptive nature of the Double Eleven shopping festival, while offline retail is accelerating its transformation [14][19]. - The service retail sector continues to show robust growth, with a year-on-year increase of 4.2% in the service production index [15][19].