Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2025-12-21 13:16Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Views - Copper prices are experiencing high volatility, supported by macroeconomic factors such as the unexpected rise in the US unemployment rate and lower-than-expected CPI, which have increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] - The supply-demand dynamics for copper are tightening, with capital expenditures on copper mines insufficient and frequent supply disruptions expected to lead to a shift from a tight balance to a shortage [4] - The aluminum market is characterized by a slight accumulation of domestic inventory, with prices remaining high due to stable demand and limited supply growth [4] - The lithium sector is witnessing strong demand, with lithium prices entering an upward cycle as inventory continues to deplete [4] - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to a tight supply of raw materials, despite some easing of export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The US unemployment rate for November was reported at 4.6%, exceeding expectations, while non-farm employment increased by 64,000, also above forecasts [8] - The US retail sales for October were flat, and the CPI for November was reported at 2.7%, below expectations [8] 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 1.46% compared to a 0.03% rise in the index [10] - The sector's PE_TTM valuation is at 26.64 times, while the PB_LF valuation is at 3.29 times, indicating a premium over the broader market [19] 3. Copper - London copper prices increased by 0.36%, while Shanghai copper prices decreased by 0.96% [24] - Copper inventories in London decreased by 3.32%, while Shanghai inventories increased by 7.18% [24] 4. Aluminum - London aluminum prices rose by 2.37%, while Shanghai aluminum prices fell by 0.54% [36] - The aluminum industry is facing a slight increase in inventory, with production capacity nearing its limits [4] 5. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices rose by 3.33% to 97,650 CNY/ton, while lithium hydroxide prices increased by 3.91% to 86,280 CNY/ton [78] - The lithium sector is expected to see a profit turning point as demand continues to grow [4] 6. Cobalt - The price of MB cobalt rose by 0.51% to 24.45 USD/pound, with domestic cobalt prices increasing by 1.93% to 422,000 CNY/ton [90] - The supply of cobalt remains tight, with expectations for continued price increases [4]