中国连续减持美债，美债收益率走陡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the long - end US Treasury yield continued to rise, and the curve steepened significantly. The 10 - year US Treasury yield reached 4.16%. The short - end was relatively stable due to easing and improved liquidity, but the long - end fluctuated more due to supply pressure, economic resilience, and rising risk premiums. China's continuous reduction of US Treasury holdings reflects a structural adjustment of re - allocating the internal structure of US dollar assets, shifting from US Treasuries to gold and other assets, rather than a concentrated sell - off or systematic withdrawal from the US Treasury market. The US Treasury has short - term resilience but is still constrained by high debt in the medium - to - long - term [4]. - The latest TIC data shows that in October, the scale of US Treasuries held by overseas investors declined slightly. China's holdings dropped to 68.8 trillion, the lowest since 2008, while Japan, the UK, Belgium and other countries continued to increase their holdings. This pattern of "East selling, West buying" indicates that the US Treasury has not been completely abandoned, but there is an obvious differentiation in the overseas holding structure. China's reduction is a long - term, rhythmic strategic adjustment, not a panic sell - off. Japan's increase in holdings hedges some of the demand gap in the short term, keeping the US Treasury price relatively stable. The US national debt has exceeded 38 trillion US dollars, and the debt - to - GDP ratio continues to rise. The medium - to - long - term supply pressure of US Treasuries is still accumulating. Although factors such as the Fed, overseas official sectors, and stablecoin expansion support the demand for US Treasuries in the short term, the deficit and debt path are important constraints on US Treasury valuation in the medium - to - long - term [11]. - China has been reducing its US Treasury holdings and increasing its gold holdings in recent years, mainly due to concerns about the rising credit risk of US Treasuries, geopolitical uncertainties, and asset safety. As the US debt scale expands rapidly, the fiscal deficit and interest payments continue to rise, and the safe - asset attribute of US Treasuries is being re - evaluated. By reducing reliance on a single US - dollar asset and increasing hard assets such as gold that are difficult to freeze, China aims to enhance the risk - resistance ability of its foreign exchange reserves, rather than short - term gaming operations on US Treasuries [11]. - The US dollar is still the core reserve currency, but its status as the sole anchor is being weakened. Countries tend to diversify risks through gold, local - currency settlement, and diversified asset allocation. This change does not impact the US Treasury market in the short term but reshapes the role of US Treasuries in the global financial system in a slow and structural way [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US Treasury Interest Rate Review - As of December 19, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 2bp in two weeks, reaching 4.16%. Compared with two weeks ago, the 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 8bp, and the 30 - year US Treasury yield increased by 3bp, making the yield curve steeper [5]. 3.2 US Treasury Market Changes - In terms of actual bond issuance, in mid - December, the duration of US Treasury issuance decreased slightly. The issuance of 3 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year US Treasuries was 57.2 billion, 12.94 billion, and 21.95 billion respectively. The US fiscal deficit in November was 173.28 billion US dollars, and the 12 - month cumulative deficit decreased slightly to 1.6 trillion US dollars [5]. 3.3 Derivatives Market Structure - The net short position in US Treasury futures decreased slightly. As of December 9, the net short positions of speculators, leveraged funds, asset management companies, and primary dealers rose to 5.67 million contracts, indicating that the short - hedging demand in the interest - rate market began to decline in the short term. Meanwhile, the federal funds rate futures market remained in a net short position, dropping to 306,300 contracts [5]. 3.4 US Dollar Liquidity and US Economy - Monetary Policy: The core feature of the December Fed meeting was the turning of the policy framework and increased internal differences. The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp for the third consecutive time, in line with expectations, but the dot - plot maintained the guidance of only one interest - rate cut next year, indicating that the pace of easing would slow down significantly. It also announced the start of monthly reserve management purchases of 40 billion US dollars (short - term Treasury bills), marking the shift of policy from the balance - sheet reduction stage to maintaining sufficient liquidity [6]. - Fiscal Policy: As of December 17, the US fiscal TGA deposit balance decreased by 104.1 billion US dollars in two weeks, and the Fed's reverse - repurchase tool decreased by 1.6 trillion US dollars in two weeks, reflecting that fiscal expenditure and capital return jointly promoted the net injection of market liquidity [6]. - Economic Situation: As of December 13, the Fed's weekly economic indicator was 2.29 (2.26 two weeks ago), showing short - term stability in the economic cycle [6].