南华期货煤焦产业周报：关注冬储需求释放-20251221

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradiction in the coking coal and coke market lies in the divergence in coking coal production data, weak replenishment demand from coking enterprises, and the potential for further price cuts in coke. However, with the approaching winter storage, the inventory structure of coking coal is expected to improve, and the downward space of the coking coal futures market may be limited. For coke, after the third round of price cuts, the driving force for valuation repair may weaken, and end - users can consider selling hedging opportunities at low basis levels. The overall trend is expected to be in a volatile consolidation phase [1][11]. - The price ranges are predicted as follows: JM2605 is expected to trade between 1050 - 1198, and J2605 is expected to trade between 1680 - 1768 [9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Coking coal production data from Fenwei and Steel Union diverge. Steel Union data shows mine production increase and inventory accumulation, while Fenwei data shows production decrease and inventory accumulation. Coking enterprises are less enthusiastic about replenishing inventory due to expected price cuts, and the inventory structure of coking coal continues to deteriorate [1]. - The average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal this week exceeded 1500 vehicles per day. The Australian coal price index was stable with a slight increase. The price difference between domestic and international coal is severely inverted, and the import window for seaborne coal is narrowing, so the subsequent arrival of coking coal at ports may decline [1]. - The third - round price cut of coke has officially started. The current immediate coking profit is near the break - even point. After the third - round price cut, some coking enterprises are expected to face slight losses. The coking enterprise operating rate decreased slightly due to environmental protection restrictions, and the demand for coke shrank as blast furnace hot metal production decreased rapidly, leading to a marginal deterioration of the coke fundamentals [1]. 1.2 Market Positioning - The price range of JM2605 is predicted to be 1050 - 1198, and that of J2605 is predicted to be 1680 - 1768. The current 20 - day rolling volatility of coking coal is 37.95%, with a historical percentile of 74.63%. The current 20 - day rolling volatility of coke is 33.24%, with a historical percentile of 72.10% [9]. 1.3 Basic Data Overview - In terms of coking coal supply, the operating rate of 523 coking coal mines increased by 1.31 percentage points week - on - week, and the average daily raw coal production increased by 2.91 tons. The average daily clean coal production of 314 coal washing plants decreased by 0.63 tons [9]. - In terms of coking coal inventory, the total sample inventory increased by 29.11 tons week - on - week. The inventory of 523 mine raw coal and 523 mine clean coal increased, while the inventory of 314 coal washing plant clean coal decreased [9]. - In terms of coke supply, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises decreased by 1.11 percentage points week - on - week, and the average daily coke production decreased by 0.98 tons [9]. - In terms of coke inventory, the total sample inventory decreased by 3.32 tons week - on - week. The inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises increased, while the inventory of 247 steel mills and ports decreased [9]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: Indonesia plans to impose a 1 - 5% export tax on coal from 2026; relevant departments issued the "Benchmark and Baseline Levels for Key Areas of Clean and Efficient Coal Utilization (2025 Edition)"; the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to expand domestic demand and promote consumption; and market - related departments emphasized the construction of a unified national market and the control of high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects [20]. - Negative Information: Some steel products were included in the export license management scope; in November, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size was 4.8%, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 1.3%, and the year - on - year decline of national fixed asset investment from January to November was 2.6% [22][23]. 2.2 Next Week's Key Events - On Monday, pay attention to China's one - year loan prime rate as of December 22. - On Tuesday, pay attention to the preliminary value of the annualized quarterly rate of the US core PCE price index in the third quarter. - On Wednesday, pay attention to the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending December 20. - The 19th session of the 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee will be held from December 22 to 27 [24]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Analysis - Unilateral Trend: From a technical analysis perspective, after getting support near 1000 points, the main coking coal futures contract rebounded rapidly driven by improved sentiment and basis repair. If there is no new driving force in the future, the JM05 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1050 - 1198. The coke trend still follows coking coal, and the J05 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1680 - 1768 [25]. - Calendar Spread Structure: This week, the 1 - 5 reverse spread of coking coal strengthened, and the 1 - 5 positive spread of coke strengthened. The term structure remains in a deep C - shape, indicating an over - supplied industrial pattern [29]. - Basis Structure: This week, the main coking coal futures contract rebounded strongly. The prices of Mongolian coal at ports and some coal types in Shanxi followed the increase, and the 05 basis shrank. Currently, the coking coal basis is moderately high. From the perspective of valuation repair, the rebound space of the coking coal futures market may be larger than that of coke. The spot price of coke has started the third - round price cut, and the futures market rebounded rapidly following coking coal. Currently, the coke futures market has a premium over the dry - quenched coke warehouse receipt after the third - round price cut, and industrial customers with open positions are advised to sell for hedging [33]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream - Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - This week, the prices of Mongolian coal at ports and some coal types in Shanxi increased following the futures market. With the upcoming third - round price cut of coke, the immediate coking profit is expected to continue to shrink. As the iron ore spot price rebounded following the futures market, the profitability of downstream steel mills decreased slightly [36]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - This week, the minimum customs clearance at the 288 port was about 1491 vehicles, and the maximum was 1637 vehicles, with an average daily customs clearance of over 1500 vehicles. In terms of profit, the Mongolian coal quotation fluctuated following the futures market, and the long - term contract trade profit first decreased and then increased. Recently, the Australian coal price has been firm. Although the spot price of some domestic coking coal has rebounded following the futures market, the price difference between domestic and international coal is still inverted, and the subsequent arrival of coking coal at ports is expected to decline [39][45]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Side Projection - Limited by over - production checks and safety supervision, the production increase space of coking coal mines in the fourth quarter may be limited. According to the seasonal forecast of the operating rate, the average weekly production of coking coal in December is expected to be around 948 - 950 tons. In terms of imports, based on the customs clearance of Mongolian coal and the shipping volume of seaborne coal, the average weekly net import volume of coking coal in December is estimated to be about 240 tons. Due to stricter environmental protection restrictions in some areas recently, the coke production capacity has declined marginally, and the weekly coke production in December is expected to remain at 768 - 770 tons [60][62]. 5.2 Demand - Side Projection - Based on the SMM maintenance data, the estimated daily hot metal production next week is 222.74 tons, and the hot metal production the week after next is expected to be 224.05 tons [65]. 5.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - The coking coal and coke supply - demand balance sheets show the production, net import, total supply, supply - converted theoretical hot metal, actual hot metal, explicit inventory, and the difference between theoretical and actual hot metal and inventory changes in each week from Week 40, 2025, to Week 53, 2026 [67].