投资策略周报：“春季躁动”行情的启动，需具备哪些必要条件？-20251221

Market Review - Global stock indices mostly declined this week, with the Korean Composite Index, Hang Seng Tech, and Nikkei 225 leading the losses. A-shares saw a decrease in trading volume, with the average daily turnover of the Wind All A Index falling to approximately 1.76 trillion yuan. Market sentiment has turned cautious, with the ChiNext 50 and ChiNext Index leading the declines, while funds rotated into dividend sectors. In terms of styles, the financial and consumer sectors rose, while growth styles fell, with the electronics and power equipment indices dropping over 3%. In the commodity market, COMEX silver surged by 8.7%, and copper and aluminum prices fluctuated upward, while coking coal rebounded from the bottom. In the foreign exchange market, after the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the yen depreciated against the dollar, while the renminbi continued to appreciate against the dollar [1][2]. Market Outlook - The "Spring Rally" is accumulating positive factors, with a focus on buying on dips. Historically, the initiation of the A-share "Spring Rally" typically requires reasonable valuation levels, a loose liquidity environment, and effective catalysts to boost risk appetite, such as domestic policies, industrial events, or external risk alleviation. Currently, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike have been implemented, easing concerns about the reversal of arbitrage trades. The subsequent appreciation of the renminbi is expected to attract foreign capital, and the "good start" of insurance premium income at the beginning of the year is also anticipated to bring incremental insurance funds into the market. Recently, stock ETFs have seen large-scale net subscriptions, with multiple broad-based ETFs experiencing increased trading volume, indicating that incremental funds are inclined to buy on dips [2][5]. Historical Review - A review of history shows that, except for 2021 and 2022, the A-share market has often exhibited a "Spring Rally" calendar effect over the past decade. At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the A-share market is in a "vacuum period" for economic data and corporate earnings reports, making it easier for the market to engage in thematic investments based on policy expectations and industrial trends. Since 2016, there have been 8 instances of "Spring Rally" in the A-share market. The timing of these rallies typically starts between December and January and lasts for 20 to 60 trading days [3][4]. Necessary Conditions for "Spring Rally" - The initiation of the "Spring Rally" requires several necessary conditions: 1) A reasonable market valuation range, as the elasticity of the rally is highly correlated with market valuation levels. In the years with the largest index gains during the past decade's Spring Rallies, the market had generally undergone sufficient adjustments beforehand. For instance, at the beginning of 2016, the "circuit breaker" triggered a liquidity feedback shock, leading to a sharp decline in major A-share indices; at the beginning of 2019, after previous declines, the price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 Index was only 10 times; and in early February 2024, liquidity shocks from products like Xueqiu and quantitative funds brought the CSI 300 Index's price-to-earnings ratio back to around 10 times [4]. 2) A sustained loose liquidity environment with inflows of incremental funds. For example, in early 2018, the central bank implemented targeted reserve requirement ratio cuts, and in early 2019 and 2020, the central bank conducted comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cuts to maintain macro liquidity. In early 2023, there was a significant inflow of foreign capital, and in early 2025, regulatory authorities are expected to promote the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market [4]. 3) Domestic policies, industrial event catalysts, or external risk alleviation that drive risk appetite upward. For example, in early 2016, supply-side reforms; in early 2019, progress in China-U.S. trade negotiations; in January 2020, the signing of the first-phase trade agreement between China and the U.S.; at the end of 2022, the optimization of epidemic prevention policies and the "three arrows" for real estate; in February 2024, an unexpected reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR); and in early 2025, catalysts from trends in industries like DeepSeek and robotics [4][5]. Accumulating Positive Conditions - Positive conditions for the "Spring Rally" are accumulating, with a focus on buying on dips: 1) In terms of overseas liquidity, the dovish interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan has been implemented, leading to a weaker yen against the dollar and easing pressures from arbitrage trades. The Federal Reserve's expected dovish rate cuts in December are closely tied to the leadership transition, with the overall market expectation for the Fed's policy direction remaining loose [5]. 2) Domestically, the Central Economic Work Conference has set the tone for "continuing to implement an appropriately loose monetary policy," indicating that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [5]. 3) On the micro liquidity front, this week saw large-scale net subscriptions for stock ETFs, with multiple broad-based ETFs experiencing increased trading volume, boosting market sentiment. The anticipated inflow of foreign capital driven by the appreciation of the renminbi and the incremental insurance funds from the "good start" of premium income at the beginning of the year can also be expected [5]. 4) In terms of valuation, the current price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 Index is 14 times, which is at the 76th percentile since 2010, below the historical median plus one standard deviation [5]. 5) From a policy perspective, the Central Economic Work Conference has laid a positive foundation, with 2026 marking the start of the "14th Five-Year Plan," and incremental policies in areas such as technological innovation, anti-involution, and expanding domestic demand are expected to continue to be introduced [5]. Industry Allocation Recommendations - It is recommended to focus on: 1) Growth directions benefiting from industrial policy support, such as domestic substitution, robotics, aerospace, innovative pharmaceuticals, and energy storage [5]. 2) Cyclical directions benefiting from "anti-involution" policies, such as chemicals, energy metals, and resource products [5]. 3) The deepening of consumption-promoting policies may bring short-term catalytic opportunities for the consumer sector [5].