南华期货LPG产业周报：近端仍有支撑，预期承压-20251221

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - LPG prices mostly fluctuate following the trends of external propane and crude oil. Recently, the domestic PG has been relatively strong, mainly influenced by its stable fundamentals. However, from an expected perspective, the trend is under pressure. Overseas supply remains resilient, and domestic PDH profits are severely pressured. There is short - term support, and marginal changes should be monitored [2]. - The near - term trading logic shows that the current situation is relatively neutral to strong, while the expectation is relatively weak. The long - term trading expectation is affected by multiple factors on both the supply and demand sides [5][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Cost - end: The international crude oil market is volatile, facing fundamental pressure of oversupply and geopolitical risks. It once fell below $60 this week but rebounded later and remained weak overall [1]. - External propane: The overseas propane market is relatively strong. US production decline has led to inventory reduction, and Middle - Eastern shipments are still low, with a tight supply pattern continuing [1]. - Domestic fundamentals: Supply - side arrivals are low this week, and port inventories are decreasing. On the chemical demand side, PDH's operating rate has risen to 75% but is in deep - loss, and there are rumors of some enterprises' planned maintenance [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Market positioning: The market is in a volatile state, with the PG02 price range at 3800 - 4400 [13]. - Strategy suggestions: The basis strategy and the calendar - spread strategy are both volatile. For the hedging and arbitrage strategy, narrow the internal - external price difference and widen the PP/PG ratio when the price is low [13]. - Recent strategy review: PG1 - 2 and PG3 - 4 reverse spreads have been closed with profits. The long - PP and short - PG position is under observation. It is expected that some enterprises will enter maintenance in the first quarter, and attention should be paid to widening the 05PP/03PG ratio [14]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - LPG price range forecast: The monthly price range is 3800 - 4400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.82% and a historical percentage of 39.18% in three years [15]. - Hedging strategy: Different hedging strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management, including futures and options hedging, with specific suggestions on the trading direction, hedging ratio, and entry range [15]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Six departments have issued a notice to promote the clean and efficient utilization of coal projects and eliminate backward production capacity. Geopolitical factors support oil prices, and domestic fundamentals are relatively strong, with port inventories decreasing and PDH demand stable in the short - term [16]. - Bearish information: No bearish information is provided in the report. 3.2.2 Next Week's Focus Events - December 22: China's December LPR. - December 23: The revised value of the annualized quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate of the US real GDP in the third quarter [22]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Domestic market: The PG01 contract fluctuated upward this week. There were minor changes in the net positions of major profit - making seats, long - 5 and short - 5 positions in the top - 10 list, and net positions of powerful seats, foreign investors, and retail investors [19]. - Technical analysis: The PG01 contract fluctuated upward this week, oscillating between 4000 - 4200 on the daily chart [20]. - Basis and calendar - spread structure: The LPG calendar - spread still shows a BACK structure, with the 1 - 2 month spread at 119 yuan/ton (+35) [24]. 3.3.2 External Market - Unilateral trend: FEI M1 closed at $512/ton (-2), CP M1 at $498/ton (-9), and MB M1 at $339/ton (-9). The swap market weakened along with crude oil, and there were many cancellations of Chinese tenders for January - February [27]. - Calendar - spread structure: This week, the FEI M1 - M2 spread was $20/ton (+1), CP M1 - M2 was $6/ton (-3), and MB M1 - M2 was $1.3/ton (-1.6) [35]. - Regional price - difference tracking: US propane demand weakened recently, and the FEI - MB and CP - MB price differences strengthened [37]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream Profits - This week, the gross profit of major refineries was 614 yuan/ton (-31), and that of Shandong local refineries was 471 yuan/ton (+29). Profit fluctuations were small [40]. 3.4.2 Downstream Profits - PDH profits calculated by FEI and CP were - 289 yuan/ton (-46) and - 430 yuan/ton (+122) respectively, indicating continuous losses. MTBE gas - fractionation profit, isomerization profit, and alkylation oil profit were - 80 yuan/ton (-17), - 265 yuan/ton (-77), and - 510 yuan/ton (-37) respectively, with small recent fluctuations [42]. - Import profits: External spot prices weakened slightly this week, while domestic import gas prices remained stable, leading to the restoration of import profits [45]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory 3.5.1 Overseas Supply - Demand - US supply - demand: This week, production declined slightly, demand was weak, and inventory was slowly decreasing. From January to November, US LPG exports totaled 62,703 kt, a year - on - year increase of 3.09%, with exports to China decreasing by 40% [49][56]. - Middle - Eastern supply: From January to November, Middle - Eastern LPG exports totaled 44,850 kt, a year - on - year increase of 2.88%. Exports to India decreased by 1.55%, while those to China increased by 27%. Shipments have been low recently [59]. - Indian supply - demand: From January to November, India's LPG demand totaled 30,101 kt, a year - on - year increase of 6.26%, and imports totaled 21,048 kt, a year - on - year increase of 7.49%. The second half of the year is the seasonal peak, with high demand and imports [64]. - South Korean supply - demand: South Korea's LPG demand has no obvious seasonality. Imports were high from May to September. Currently, propane cracking profits are still better than naphtha, and imports are expected to remain relatively high [73]. - Japanese supply - demand: Japan is highly dependent on imported LPG, and its demand and imports have obvious seasonality. With the cooling weather, imports are expected to increase [83]. 3.5.2 Domestic Supply - Demand - Supply: With high refinery profits, domestic LPG production is expected to remain high, but external sales volume is not high. Import volume is also not high [87]. - Demand: Chemical demand decreases, while combustion demand increases. Chemical demand in the fourth quarter is better than expected [87]. - Inventory: Overall, inventory decreased slightly, mainly at ports [87].