1月市场和行业有何日历效应？

Core Insights - The macroeconomic data for November continues to show a slowdown, with the U.S. non-farm payroll data weakening but within market expectations, leading to a sustained high-level market fluctuation. The AI industry chain remains the core focus for investment, along with sectors experiencing supply-demand recovery and upward trends, such as storage and energy storage chains [2][3]. Market Perspectives - The U.S. unemployment rate rose from 4.44% to 4.56% in November, surpassing the natural unemployment rate level set by the Congressional Budget Office. This marginal change was anticipated by the market, thus not significantly altering the interest rate cut trajectory, which remains limited in its positive impact [3][12]. - The macroeconomic data for November indicates a continued marginal slowdown, with domestic effective demand being a key issue. The GDP growth rate for October-November is estimated at around 4.4%, showing a decline compared to the second quarter and October [4][14]. Industry Allocation - The current phase is seen as a layout period, with a strong emphasis on the AI industry chain and sectors experiencing upward trends. The consumer sector saw a recent uptick due to prior stagnation and the catalyst of Hainan Island's official closure, but the sustainability of this rise is questioned due to weak consumer expectations [5][25]. - The analysis of January's market and industry calendar effects reveals significant volatility in major indices, with the A-share and Shanghai Composite indices showing fluctuations close to or exceeding 5%. Financial sectors are expected to perform strongly, while growth sectors may remain weak [6][30]. Specific Sector Insights - The consumer sector's recent performance is attributed to a combination of prior stagnation and event-driven catalysts, but the overall sustainability of this growth is deemed weak due to low consumer expectations and limited improvement in the economic backdrop [5][25]. - The AI industry chain is identified as a core investment focus, with specific attention on computing power (TPU/GPU/CPO/PCB), supporting components (fiber optics/liquid cooling/power supply), and applications (robots/games/software). The current market conditions are seen as a normal adjustment phase, providing a good opportunity for future investments [37][38].