南华期货铁合金周报：短期震荡偏强，下方亦有支撑，但上涨空间或有限-20251221

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The ferroalloy market showed a bottom - up rebound last week, mainly due to the impact of the news about accelerating the comprehensive green and low - carbon transformation and controlling high - energy - consumption and high - emission projects from next year, as well as the continuous production cut under profit losses and cost support. The fundamentals of ferroalloy are characterized by weak supply and demand. The future production of ferroalloy is likely to decrease further, and the demand will decline as the molten iron production continues to decrease. The inventory of ferroalloy is at a high level. The upward space of ferroalloy prices is limited, but the downward space is also restricted by cost support [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestion 3.1.1 Core Contradiction - Positive factors: The news of controlling high - energy - consumption and high - emission projects from next year, continuous production cut under profit losses, cost support with some regions raising electricity prices, and the start of destocking of ferrosilicon enterprise inventory (with a week - on - week decrease of 16.28%) [2]. - Negative factors: The molten iron production decreased last week due to the decline of steel mill profitability and seasonal laws, and is expected to continue to decline slightly in the future. The inventory of five major steel products needs to be reduced through production cut, so the demand for ferroalloy is expected to decline. The profitability of steel enterprises has fallen below 40%, and the risk of negative feedback is gradually increasing. The inventory of silicomanganese enterprises continued to increase (with a week - on - week increase of 0.6%), although the inventory accumulation speed slowed down significantly [2][5]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Suggestions - Trend judgment: Range - bound oscillation. The price range of the main contract 2603 of ferrosilicon is 5300 - 5800, and that of the main contract 2603 of silicomanganese is 5500 - 6000 [5]. - Base - spread, month - spread and hedging arbitrage strategy suggestions: All strategies suggest waiting and seeing [5]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - Price range forecast: The monthly price range forecast of ferrosilicon is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.49% and a historical percentile of 17.5% (3 - year). The monthly price range forecast of silicomanganese is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 8.99% and a historical percentile of 3.3% (3 - year) [5]. - Hedging suggestions: For inventory management, if the finished - product inventory is high, enterprises can short ferroalloy futures (SF2603, SM2603) with a hedging ratio of 15% when the price of ferrosilicon is in the range of 5800 - 6000 and that of silicomanganese is in the range of 6000 - 6200 to prevent inventory depreciation losses. For procurement management, if the regular procurement inventory is low, enterprises can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2603, SM2603) with a hedging ratio of 25% when the price of ferrosilicon is in the range of 5200 - 5300 and that of silicomanganese is in the range of 5300 - 5400 to lock in procurement costs in advance [5]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: Ferroalloy has maintained a production - cut trend recently, and the magnesium ingot output in November increased by 7.7% month - on - month, continuing the production - increase trend [6]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Next Monday: China's one - year loan prime rate and November social electricity consumption. Next Wednesday: The number of initial jobless claims in the US. Next Friday: Japan's November unemployment rate [13]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation - Price - volume and capital interpretation: Analyzed the unilateral trends and capital movements of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, as well as their price - volume relationships and historical data [11]. - Base - spread and month - spread structure: Considered factors such as the improvement of downstream steel profits, the control of high - energy - consumption and high - emission projects, the production cut of ferrosilicon inventory, the slowdown of silicomanganese inventory accumulation, the decline of steel mill profitability, and the decrease of molten iron production and its impact on ferroalloy demand [12]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain - The downstream demand is gradually weakening. Steel mills purchase on demand, and the profit of ferroalloy production enterprises is gradually in the red. Due to the decline of ferroalloy production profit and seasonal laws, the market has little expectation for the continued increase of ferroalloy production, and it is expected to maintain the production - cut trend [32]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - Analyzed the relationship between ferrosilicon export profit and export volume, and other related factors [62]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Supply side: The downstream demand has entered the off - season. The previous continuous decline of ferroalloy production profit does not support the continued increase of ferroalloy production, and the possibility of production - cut drive by manufacturers is increasing. It is expected that the ferroalloy production will decline [63]. - Demand side: The molten iron production decreased last week due to the decline of steel mill profitability and seasonal laws, and is expected to continue to decline slightly in the future. The inventory of five major steel products needs to be reduced through production cut, so the demand for ferroalloy is expected to decline. The high inventory of ferroalloy itself also further suppresses the demand [63]. - Inventory: The inventory of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprises is at the highest level in the past five years, with great inventory pressure. Inventory reduction may still need to be achieved through production cut [63]. 3.5.2 Supply Side and Deduction - Analyzed the historical and predicted data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese weekly production, and the relationship between production profit and production [66][67]. 3.5.3 Demand Side and Deduction - Analyzed the historical and predicted data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese demand from five major steel products, and the relationship between demand and factors such as molten iron production, magnesium ingot production, steel enterprise profitability, and steel product production profit [70][71]. 3.5.4 Inventory Side and Deduction - Analyzed the historical and predicted data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprise inventory, warehouse - receipt quantity, and total inventory, and their seasonal characteristics [85][86].