Hopewind(SH:603063) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-12-21 14:04Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The core contradiction in the sugar market lies in the supply - demand differences between domestic and international markets, which leads to the current pattern of strong domestic and weak international prices [1]. - The 01 contract of domestic sugar is unlikely to have a large - scale rebound and may transition smoothly with the spot price; the 05 contract may face greater pressure and has the possibility of falling to a very low price [1]. - The international raw sugar price is expected to have limited rebound height in the near - term, and the game around 15.2 cents will continue [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Domestic Contracts: The 01 contract's pricing and the 05 contract's trend are key issues. The 01 contract is less likely to rebound significantly and may align with the spot price. The 05 contract has the greatest pressure due to increased domestic and imported sugar supply in the future and may fall to a low price [1]. - International Market: The international raw sugar price has fallen sharply, and it is difficult for it to firmly stand above 15 cents. The near - term rebound is limited, and the game around 15.2 cents will continue [2]. 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - Market Situation: The downward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar is slowing. Although the long - term structure is bearish, there is a short - term need for price to rebound and return to the 10 - day moving average [10]. - Strategy Review: Unilateral long position on SR2511 has been stopped out. There are also some basis, spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies [12]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price Forecast: The predicted price range of sugar is 5000 - 5300 yuan, with a current volatility of 7.29% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 2.2% [13]. - Hedging Strategies: For inventory management, enterprises with high finished - product inventory can short Zhengzhou sugar futures and sell call options. For procurement management, enterprises with low procurement inventory can long Zhengzhou sugar futures and sell put options [13]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: In November 2025, China's sugar imports decreased year - on - year, but the cumulative imports from January to November increased. The imports of syrup and premixed powder decreased. In the second half of November, Brazil's sugar production decreased. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports and the export volume in the first two weeks of December increased [14]. - Negative Information: In November 2025, China's dairy product production decreased year - on - year, and the number of sugar mills in Guangxi that started production decreased. India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season increased [16]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Monitor the weekly quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped and the number of ships in Brazilian ports (Thursday, Beijing time), Brazil's sugar export data for November (Tuesday, Beijing time), and India's sugar pressing progress [17][20]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - Domestic Market: The domestic sugar price fell by 2.42% this week. The position of the SR2605 contract increased seasonally and reached a historical high. The market shows a bearish technical pattern. The basis of the 01 contract is expected to repair to near - par, and the market presents a back structure with the 01 - 05 spread expanding [19][22]. - International Market: The international raw sugar price fell by 1.66% last week. Although it rebounded on Friday, it still closed below 15 cents. The CFTC non - commercial position maintained a large short position. The market shows a back structure, and there is pressure from hedging positions above 15.2 cents [24][26]. - Domestic - International Price Difference: Due to the quota system, the domestic and international sugar prices are related. Recently, the pattern has changed from strong domestic and weak international to weak domestic and strong international [29]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Import Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of sugar. Due to the quota system, the current out - of - quota import profit is very rich. The imports of syrup and premixed powder are relatively stable [32]. Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - In the 25/26 season, China's sugar production is expected to reach about 1156 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.56%. Other data in the supply - demand balance sheet are estimated based on the 24/25 season and the current situation [37].