南华期货碳酸锂产业周报：把握中长期价值-20251221

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market showed a wide - range and strong - side oscillatory trend this week. In the future, the driving logic of lithium carbonate futures prices will focus on factors such as the tightness of domestic lithium ore inventory, the resumption progress of Jianxiawo, the restocking rhythm of downstream enterprises, and the production schedule of downstream in Q1. In the medium - to - long - term, the long - term value supported by the industry fundamentals remains unchanged. There are opportunities for long - position building on dips. It is recommended that investors focus on structural long - position opportunities after price corrections, anchor a reasonable valuation range based on fundamentals for batch layout, and avoid short - term volatility risks caused by blind chasing of highs [1][2]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The lithium carbonate market showed a wide - range and strong - side oscillatory trend this week. The future price of lithium carbonate futures is driven by factors including the tightness of domestic lithium ore inventory, the resumption progress of Jianxiawo, the restocking rhythm of downstream enterprises, and the production schedule of downstream in Q1. The domestic available lithium concentrate inventory is still tight. The resumption progress of Jianxiawo is a key variable. If it exceeds market expectations, it will increase lithium salt supply and suppress prices. The demand side is strong, with overall market inventory continuously decreasing, especially significant drops in downstream inventory. In December, the production schedules of downstream cathode materials and power cells increased slightly month - on - month, and market demand remained strong. However, downstream enterprises' willingness to purchase high - priced lithium carbonate decreased during the price increase period, mainly consuming their own inventory. If subsequent rigid - demand restocking needs are gradually released, the spot basis is expected to strengthen. Technically, there is significant correction pressure [1]. - Near - end trading logic (before the end of 2025): includes the tightness of domestic lithium ore inventory, the resumption progress of Jianxiawo lithium ore, and the restocking rhythm of downstream enterprises. Distant - end trading logic (after January 1, 2026): not elaborated in detail in this part [7][8]. 1.2 Industry Customer Strategy Recommendations - Lithium carbonate futures price range: The strong support level of the lithium carbonate main contract is 85,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 45.9% and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 78.0% [9]. - Risk - management strategy recommendations for lithium - battery enterprises: Different strategies are recommended for procurement management, sales management, and inventory management under different scenarios, including using futures contracts and option combination strategies, with corresponding recommended hedging ratios [9]. Chapter 2: Market Information - This week's main information includes: on December 15, the 2.4 million - ton/year mining construction project of Inner Mongolia Weilasituo Mining Co., Ltd.'s lithium - tin polymetallic ore was officially approved; on December 17, LG Energy Solution terminated a long - term battery supply contract with Ford Motor Company worth about 45.7 billion yuan; on December 18, the Ministry of Commerce stated that China and the EU are conducting consultations on the electric vehicle case; on December 19, the environmental impact assessment information of the Jianxiawo lithium ore mining project in Yichun was publicly announced [10]. Chapter 3: Futures and Price Data 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Futures trend: This week, the lithium carbonate futures price showed an oscillatory and strengthening trend. The closing price of the weighted index contract on Friday was 111,307 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 14.28%; the trading volume was about 1.2015 million lots, with a week - on - week increase of 28.70%; the open interest was about 1.052 million lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 million lots. The LC2605 - LC2609 monthly spread showed a contango structure, with a week - on - week decrease of 720 yuan/ton; the number of warehouse receipts was 15,511 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 461 lots. In the short - term, the lithium carbonate price is in a strong - side operation, and in the long - term, it is still in an upward trend [11][12]. - Option situation: The 20 - day historical volatility of lithium carbonate futures showed an oscillatory correction trend in the past week, indicating that the actual price fluctuation is still at a high level. The implied volatility of at - the - money options showed an oscillatory strengthening trend, indicating that market participants expect future price fluctuations to be large. The PCR of option open interest showed an upward trend, indicating increasing bearish sentiment in the market [15][16]. - Capital movement: The long - position scale showed an upward trend this week [18]. - Monthly spread structure: The current lithium carbonate futures contract distribution still shows an overall contango structure. The resumption of production in Ningde suppresses the near - term price, and the traditional off - season in Q1 and the maintenance of material factories are expected to weaken market demand and affect the near - term price. The long - term positive logic supports the far - term price, including the growth of the domestic energy - storage industry and the increase in the penetration rate of new - energy vehicles. In the medium - to - long - term, the support for far - term contracts will be stronger than that for near - term contracts, and the contango structure is likely to deepen [20]. - CME lithium - spodumene and lithium - hydroxide futures: Data on CME lithium - hydroxide futures are provided, showing price changes in different months [32]. - LME lithium - hydroxide futures: No specific content is provided. - Basis structure: The basis of the lithium carbonate main contract fluctuated widely this week. Currently, the basis is at an extremely low level, and going long on the basis can be considered [37]. - Spot price data: The prices of various products in the lithium - battery industry chain showed different trends. For example, the prices of lithium ore, lithium salt, cathode materials, and electrolytes all had certain increases or decreases [39]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry - Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Recently, the demand for lithium - iron - phosphate batteries and ternary batteries has been strong, driving up the prosperity of the entire lithium - battery industry chain. The production start - up rates of upstream lithium - salt enterprises and downstream cathode - material enterprises are at high levels, and the profits of each link have improved marginally. However, the profit of lithium - carbonate production lines using externally purchased lithium ore has weakened marginally, as well as that of lithium - hydroxide production lines, mainly due to the shortage of available lithium - ore inventory and the higher increase in ore prices than in lithium - carbonate prices. Among cathode materials, the profit of lithium - iron - phosphate has a marginal strengthening trend, the profit of ternary materials has turned positive, and the profits of cobalt - acid lithium and manganese - acid lithium are in an oscillatory range but still positive. The profit of lithium hexafluorophosphate has increased significantly [40]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit - This week, the import profit of lithium carbonate showed a marginal upward trend due to market shipping - schedule time locks. The export profit of lithium hydroxide showed a marginal weakening trend [47]. Chapter 5: Fundamental Situation 5.1 Lithium Ore Supply - Domestic mine output: The report provides seasonal production data of sample pyroxene mines and lithium - mica mines in China [51]. - Overseas mine imports: Data on the import volume of lithium concentrate and lithium - spodumene from different countries are provided [53]. - Lithium ore inventory: The current available total inventory of lithium ore, the inventory of lithium - ore traders, and the inventory in domestic warehouses, as well as the port inventory, are presented. The available total inventory of lithium ore and the inventory of traders increased this week, while the inventory in warehouses decreased [54][55]. 5.2 Upstream Lithium - Salt Supply - Lithium carbonate supply: The total start - up rate of sample enterprises is 51.4%, with different start - up rates for lithium - spodumene, lithium - mica, salt - lake, and recycling production lines. The total production of sample enterprises is 22,045 tons, with different production volumes from different sources [57]. - Lithium carbonate net export: Seasonal data on lithium carbonate net export are provided [74]. - Lithium carbonate inventory: The total weekly inventory of lithium carbonate is 110,425 tons, with decreases in smelter and downstream inventories and an increase in other inventories. The inventory days also changed accordingly [75]. - Lithium hydroxide supply: Data on the monthly production of lithium hydroxide by different processes, including the total production, production at the smelting end, and production at the causticizing end, are provided [84]. 5.3 Mid - Stream Material Factory Supply - Material factory output: The weekly production data of battery - material factories, including the production and start - up rates of lithium - iron - phosphate, ternary materials, cobalt - acid lithium, manganese - acid lithium, and lithium hexafluorophosphate, are provided. The production of lithium - iron - phosphate and lithium hexafluorophosphate increased, while that of ternary materials, cobalt - acid lithium, and manganese - acid lithium decreased [88]. - Material factory inventory: Seasonal inventory data of different materials in material factories are provided [101]. 5.4 Downstream Cell Supply - China's power - cell production: The weekly production of power cells is 29.34 GWh, with decreases in both iron - lithium - type and ternary - type power - cell production [102]. - China's lithium - battery installation volume: Seasonal data on China's total lithium - battery installation volume and the installation volume of power lithium - batteries by vehicle type are provided [106]. 5.5 New - Energy Vehicles - New - energy vehicle production and sales: Data on the production and sales of new - energy vehicles, including the production of Chinese new - energy vehicles, global sales by country, and the sales of new - energy passenger and commercial vehicles, are provided. The sales of domestic new - energy passenger vehicles increased this week, and the penetration rate also increased slightly [108][109][111]. - Automobile inventory: Seasonal data on the inventory - warning index of domestic automobile dealers are provided [121]. 5.6 Energy Storage - Data on the total winning - bid power scale and capacity scale of energy - storage projects, as well as the seasonal data of the total winning - bid capacity scale, are provided [123].