集运指数（欧线）观点：轻仓布多02做交割，04关注补贴水风险-20251221

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the 2602 contract, consider lightly building long positions around 1700 points or lower for delivery; for the 2604 contract, maintain rolling short - selling. The 2602 contract has three scenarios: neutral, optimistic, and pessimistic, and the price trend in week 3 is uncertain. The 2604 contract has a relatively higher probability of short - selling, and in the short - term, beware of the risk of premium water [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - This week's view on the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is to lightly build long positions in the 02 contract for delivery and pay attention to the premium water risk in the 04 contract. In the past week, the weekly average capacity in January remained at 318,000 TEU/week, and the number of pending voyages was reduced to 1. There were changes in different alliances' ship schedules. In February, there are currently 4 blank sailings and 8 pending voyages, with a weekly average capacity of 275,000 TEU/week, and there is still a large room for revision [4][5] 3.2 Demand - From the perspective of China's exports (valued in amount, updated to November), in November, China's year - on - year exports to the US declined from - 25.2% in October to - 28.6%, while the year - on - year growth rate of exports to the EU increased by 13.9 percentage points to 14.8%. Exports to ASEAN decreased from 11.0% to 8.2% but still showed resilience, and exports to Africa further increased to 27.6%. In terms of Asian exports to Europe (updated to October) and North America (updated to October), there were different trends in container trade volumes in different months. The US import volume tracking (updated to December 11) also showed certain trends [33][36][39] 3.3 Supply 3.3.1 Supply Chain Risk Events - Geopolitical situation disturbances include the limited progress of the second - stage cease - fire talks in Gaza, the increased risk of internal conflict in Yemen, and the symbolic passage of Maersk's Sebarok through the Bab el - Mandeb Strait, which does not mean the full normalization of the Red Sea route [52] 3.3.2 European Line Ship Schedule - In the past week, the weekly average capacity in January remained at 318,000 TEU/week, and there were changes in different alliances' ship schedules. In February, there are currently 4 blank sailings and 8 pending voyages, with a weekly average capacity of 275,000 TEU/week, and there is still a large room for revision [54] 3.3.3 Turnover Efficiency - It includes aspects such as the sailing speed of container ships, the number of idle container ships, regional congestion situations (including ports in China, the UK/Europe, the Mediterranean/Black Sea, Southeast Asia, North America), and the congestion situations of major ports in Europe, North America, and Asia [63][67][69] 3.3.4 Static Capacity - In the past three months, there were new 12,000 + TEU container ships launched by the top ten liner companies, and there are also new ships to be delivered in the remaining months of 2025 and in 2026. The delivery plans of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 17,000 + TEU container ships from 2024 - 2026 are also summarized [80][83][85] 3.4 Price - For the 2512 contract, the delivery settlement price is the average of the SCFIS indices of weeks 50, 51, and 52. The SCFIS index of week 51 is expected to be between 1570 - 1630 points, and that of week 52 is expected to be between 1730 - 1780 points, with the delivery settlement price of the 2512 contract likely to be between 1600 - 1640 points. In January, based on the quotes of leading companies, the average FAK in the market in week 2 is expected to be around 2800 US dollars/FEU [16][17]