东方证券煤炭行业周报：焦煤价格如期反弹，动力煤关注港口库存拐点-20251221

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - Coking coal prices are rebounding due to seasonal restocking in downstream sectors, indicating a strong short-term outlook for coking coal prices [3][7] - Attention is required on the turning point of thermal coal port inventories, as prices are expected to stabilize after this point [3][7] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Current coking coal prices are supported by seasonal restocking, suggesting investment opportunities in the coking coal sector [3][60] - Thermal coal requires close monitoring of port inventory turning points, with potential price stabilization expected post-turning point. Recommended stocks include China Shenhua (601088, Buy), China Coal Energy (601898, Buy), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225, Buy), and Jincheng Anthracite Mining Group (601001, Buy) [3][60] Industry Fundamentals - Coking coal inventory trends show a shift from midstream to downstream, with sample steel mills' coking coal inventory at 8.05 million tons (up 1.30% MoM) and independent coking plants at 8.81 million tons (down 0.22% MoM) [7] - As of December 19, coking coal futures closed at 1,108 RMB/ton (up 9.00% MoM) [7] - Thermal coal demand remains weak, with port inventories at seasonal highs affecting railway shipment volumes [7] - The supply side shows coal mine operating rates at low levels, with 462 thermal coal mines operating at 90.4% capacity (down 2.1 percentage points MoM) [7][27] Price Trends and Valuation - The price ratio of coking coal to thermal coal has significantly rebounded, with the ratio at 1.40 as of December 19, compared to 1.20 the previous week [7] - The coal industry index PB is at 1.44 times, indicating a historical median valuation level [7][56]