铁水下行叠加堆存成本上升,矿价延续区间调整

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for different products in the iron ore and related industries, the ratings are as follows: - Iron ore: The short - term view is neutral, with an expected wide - range consolidation within a certain price range [3]. - Coking coal: Neutral [6]. - Coke: Neutral [6]. - Rebar: Neutral [6]. - Hot - rolled coil: Neutral [6]. Core View of the Report - The iron ore market is under dual pressure from supply and demand. Supply - side factors include high shipping and arrival volumes, and rising port inventory. Demand - side factors involve a decline in molten iron production and cautious procurement by steel mills. Policy disturbances mainly reshape the cost structure rather than causing immediate selling pressure. The market sentiment is cautious, and it is expected that iron ore prices will fluctuate widely within a range. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction rhythm and restocking signals from steel mills after the policy implementation in January [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview - This week, the global iron ore shipping volume was 35.925 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.239 million tons (+6.65%); Australian shipping volume was 20.526 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.852 million tons (+4.33%); Brazilian shipping volume was 9.129 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.25 million tons (+32.71%); the combined shipping volume of Australia and Brazil was 29.655 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.102 million tons (+11.68%). The arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 27.234 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.429 million tons (+9.79%) [3][37][54]. - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 84.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.99% (-1.15%); the daily average molten iron production was 2.2655 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0265 million tons (-1.10%); the profit ratio was 35.93%, unchanged from the previous week (+0.00%) [3][65]. - The iron ore inventory at 45 ports in China was 155.1263 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.8121 million tons (+0.53%); the iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 162.2553 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.1406 million tons (+0.71%) [3][88]. - The settlement price of the main iron ore futures contract was 777.00 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 17.00 yuan/ton (+2.24%); the basis was 31.81 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.26 yuan/ton (-14.19%); the Platts iron ore price index was 108.35 US dollars/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.35 US dollars/dry ton (+3.19%); the rebar - to - iron - ore ratio of the main contract was 4.008 [3][7]. 2. Key News and Industry Chain Dynamics - Steel mill dynamics: AMNS India plans to increase its steel production capacity to 25 - 26 million tons by 2030 [4]. - Mine dynamics: Rio Tinto and its joint - venture partner invested 191 million US dollars to start the feasibility study of the Rhodes Ridge iron ore mine in Australia; the iron ore project in Amapá, Brazil, plans to restart in 2026; Australian mining company Genmin completed a 17 - million - US - dollar financing to accelerate the Baniaka iron ore project in Gabon; India's SAIL signed a 28 - year mining contract for the Rowghat iron ore mine with Kalunga Company; US mining company MagIron obtained the first hematite mining lease in Minnesota [4]. - Macroeconomic news: Fed officials made various statements on monetary policy, and relevant economic data such as non - farm payrolls and manufacturing PMI were released [4]. 3. Futures Market - Main contract: The settlement price of the main contract was 777.00 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 17.00 yuan/ton (+2.24%); the basis was 31.81 yuan/ton (-14.19%); the Platts iron ore price index was 108.85 US dollars/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.35 US dollars/dry ton (+3.19%); the rebar - to - iron - ore ratio of the main contract was 4.008 [7]. - Spread: The 9 - 1 spread was 40.00 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread was 18.00 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was 22.00 yuan/ton. The narrowing trend of spreads between near - and far - month contracts was emerging [3][9]. 4. Spot Market - Iron ore spot price: The report presents price trends of the Platts iron ore index, port spot prices, and Tangshan 66% iron concentrate powder [18][20][23]. - Block - to - powder spread: The report shows the spread between different types of iron ore powders and block - to - powder spreads [24][27]. - Spread between different grades: The report analyzes spreads between medium - and low - grade ores, medium - and high - grade ores, and other grade combinations [30][31]. 5. Supply - Global shipping volume: This week, the global iron ore shipping volume increased, with significant increases in Australian and Brazilian shipping volumes [3][37]. - Shipping volume of the four major mines: The report shows the weekly average shipping volumes of the four major mines in Australia and Brazil and their shipping volumes to China [45][48]. - Shipping costs: The shipping cost from Western Australia to Qingdao was 10.50 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.37 US dollars/ton (+3.65%); the shipping cost from Brazil to Qingdao was 24.07 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.06 US dollars/ton (+9.36%) [52]. - Domestic mines: The capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines was 59.72%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45% (-0.75%); the daily output of iron concentrate powder was 37.71 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 tons (-0.74%) [56]. 6. Demand - Steel enterprise production: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate, molten iron production, and profit ratio of steel mills showed certain changes, with a decline in molten iron production and stable profit ratio [3][65]. - Sinter powder consumption and charging ratio: The daily average consumption of domestic and imported sinter powders decreased, and the report also shows the charging ratios of block ore, sinter ore, and pellet ore in steel mills [67][68]. - Global steel production: The report presents the production of blast furnace pig iron and crude steel globally, in China, and in other regions [74][77][80]. - Port clearance: The port clearance volume and spot trading volume showed certain trends [85]. 7. Inventory - Port inventory: The iron ore inventory at 45 and 47 ports in China increased, and the report also shows the inventory of different types of iron ore such as iron concentrate powder, block ore, and pellet ore at ports [88][90]. - Steel mill inventory: The imported ore inventory and imported sinter powder inventory of 247 sample steel mills decreased [95]. 8. Profit - The profit of Tangshan rebar was - 134.63 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8.51 yuan/ton (+6.75%); the profit of Tangshan hot - rolled coil was - 130.47 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.46 yuan/ton (-6.76%) [101].