PVC：趋势偏弱，烧碱：后期仍有压力

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1烧碱 - The later stage of caustic soda still faces pressure. The supply side has high production and inventory, and the winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, resulting in large supply pressure. The demand side is affected by the low profit of alumina, seasonal decline in non - aluminum downstream demand, and weak export, making it difficult to support the overall demand. The valuation of caustic soda is suppressed by the alumina production reduction expectation, and it is difficult to rebound significantly without production reduction by manufacturers [5][6]. 2.2 PVC - The trend of PVC is weak. The high - production structure of PVC is difficult to change in the short term. The export market competition pressure increases in 2025, and the domestic demand related to real estate is weak. Although there may be phased rebounds, the space is limited. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term, but the supply - side production reduction in the maintenance peak season in the next year can be expected [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Caustic Soda Price and Spread - The main logic of short - sellers includes high supply, high inventory, continuous expectation of alumina production reduction, new capacity in the next year, slowdown in export growth, and changes in delivery areas and delivery premiums. The main logic of long - sellers includes anti - deflation and anti - involution trends, large losses in integrated profits of caustic soda and PVC, and expansion of the export market due to overseas plant shutdowns [13]. - The basis of caustic soda 01 fluctuates, and the 1 - 5 month spread weakens [16]. - The export market of caustic soda still has support but also faces structural adjustment. In October 2025, China's liquid caustic soda export volume was 330,000 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 10.39% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.90%. The cumulative export volume from January to October was 2.944 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 41.93%. The cumulative export of caustic soda from January to October was 3.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 41.7%. It is expected that the annual export in 2025 will increase by at least 30% year - on - year and exceed 4 million tons [20][23]. - The regional arbitrage space between Shandong and Guangdong is acceptable, and the spread between flake caustic soda and liquid caustic soda declines, which is negative for caustic soda. The spread between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda also declines, which is negative for caustic soda [31][34][36]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Supply - The market structure shows a decline in production and an increase in inventory. The average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China is 84.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5%. The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country is 464,700 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 1.66% and a year - on - year increase of 52.34% [43][44][45]. - Attention should be paid to the significant reduction in maintenance after December. There are many enterprises in different regions with maintenance plans [49]. - Caustic soda will continue to be put into production in 2025 and 2026, with a capacity growth rate of over 3%. In 2025, the planned production capacity is 1.9 million tons, and in 2026, the planned and under - construction production capacity that can be put into production is 2.56 million tons [51]. - In December, the large - scale industrial electricity price in Shandong Province is reduced, and the cost of caustic soda is difficult to support. The price of liquid chlorine does not provide significant subsidies, and the cost support for caustic soda is limited [52][56]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Demand - In 2025, the alumina capacity expands greatly, with an expected new capacity of 9.5 million tons. As of November 2025, 8.3 million tons of new alumina production capacity has been put into operation. It is expected that there will still be 1.7 million tons of capacity to be put into operation in 2025, but the specific progress needs to be followed up. In 2026, the new alumina production capacity is expected to reach 13.9 million tons, with 76% in the southern market and 24% in the northern market [74][75][76]. - The alumina industry has a negative impact on caustic soda. The low profit of alumina leads to cautious procurement of caustic soda by alumina plants, a decrease in inventory levels, and difficulty in transferring caustic soda inventory downstream, resulting in a decline in caustic soda prices [90]. - The demand in the pulp industry is in the off - season, and the terminal profit is continuously compressed. The new capacity of pulp continues to be put into production, with 3.901 million tons in 2025 and 3.496 million tons in 2026 [91][97]. - The开工 rate of viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing industries declines, the water treatment industry has stable operation, and the output of the ternary precursor industry declines [103][105][107]. 3.4 PVC Price and Spread - The main contract of PVC changes, the basis fluctuates and strengthens, and the 1 - 5 month spread fluctuates and weakens [112]. 3.5 PVC Supply and Demand - The PVC production enterprises' capacity utilization rate is 77.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.05% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.23%. The ethylene - based method is 76.54%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.36% and a year - on - year increase of 0.22%. The calcium carbide - based method is 77.74%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.92% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.04% [118][119]. - In December 2025, the maintenance of PVC decreases. There are long - term parking, maintenance, and temporary parking, as well as later - planned maintenance situations in different regions [121]. - As of 2025, 2.2 million tons of new PVC production capacity has been put into operation, and there is no new production capacity in 2026 [122]. - The chlor - alkali plants in Shandong are in a loss situation, reaching the cash - flow cost. The integrated profit of the northwest chlor - alkali plants is at a low level, and the impact of profit on supply is weakened in winter [124][127]. - PVC production enterprises have a slight inventory build - up, and the social inventory is at a high level. The real - estate terminal demand has not significantly recovered, and the overall downstream PVC开工 rate decreases month - on - month [128][133][139]. - In October 2025, the PVC export volume is 312,100 tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to October is 3.2338 million tons. The single - month export volume decreases by 9.91% month - on - month, increases by 34.28% year - on - year compared with the same month of last year, and the cumulative export volume increases by 48.88% year - on - year. India is still the most important destination for China's PVC exports [146]. - The PVC warehouse receipts decline but are still at a high level [148].