宏观量化经济指数周报20251221：政策退坡和基数抬升下商品消费延续承压-20251221

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 49.95%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.84%, down 0.01 percentage points[8] - The monthly ECI supply index for December is at 49.94%, down 0.02 percentage points from November, and the demand index is at 49.85%, down 0.03 percentage points[9] - The ECI investment index is at 49.86%, down 0.02 percentage points from November, and the consumption index is at 49.66%, down 0.01 percentage points[9] Consumer Trends - Retail sales of passenger cars from December 1-14 decreased by 24.0% year-on-year, with a total of 764,000 units sold[24] - Sales of durable goods like refrigerators and air conditioners saw a decline of over 30% year-on-year due to policy withdrawal and high base effects[9] - The average wholesale price of pork is recorded at 17.45 yuan/kg, down 0.19 yuan/kg from the previous week[42] Investment and Production - The operating rate for oil asphalt plants is at 27.60%, down 0.20 percentage points week-on-week, but up 1.70 percentage points year-on-year[30] - The cement dispatch rate is at 31.62%, up 1.53 percentage points week-on-week, but down 0.03 percentage points year-on-year[30] - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by 17.65% week-on-week, totaling 230.81 million square meters[34] Export Performance - The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) is at 1552.92 points, up 46.46 points from the previous week[41] - South Korea's export growth for the first ten days of December is at 17.30%, an increase of 11.10 percentage points from November[36] Monetary Policy - The ELI index is at -0.44%, up 0.10 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight improvement in liquidity conditions[13] - The central bank conducted 657.5 billion yuan in reverse repos, resulting in a net withdrawal of 110 billion yuan for the week[48]