格林大华期货早盘提示-20251222

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Friday, driven by external markets, the major indices of the two markets in China showed strong performance, with growth - style indices rebounding more strongly. Global investors are regaining confidence in China's long - term growth due to China's technological breakthroughs, cost advantages in AI and other fields, and its resilience in the face of external pressures. In 2026, factors such as incremental macro - policies, declining risk - free rates, the transfer of household savings to the stock market, and continuous inflow of long - term funds will boost the valuation of the A - share market. Global funds are re - increasing their positions in the Chinese stock market, and the Chinese technology sector is becoming a new destination for global funds to layout AI. The risk of a significant rise in the Chinese stock market in 2026 is much higher than that of a significant decline [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Friday, the major indices of the two markets ran strongly, with the CSI 500 up 0.97%, the CSI 300 up 0.34%, the CSI 1000 up 0.79%, and the SSE 50 up 0.19%. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.72 trillion yuan, showing a slight increase. Among industry and theme ETFs, tourism, aerospace, intelligent connected vehicle, industrial non - ferrous, and grain ETFs led the gains, while energy, science and technology innovation board artificial intelligence, and chip equipment ETFs led the losses. Among sector indices, Hainan Free Trade, general retail, sports, planting, and duty - free concept indices led the gains, while forestry, components, glass fiber, national banks, and oil and gas exploration indices led the losses. The CSI 500, CSI 300, CSI 1000, and SSE 50 index futures saw net inflows of 37, 31, 24, and 14 billion yuan respectively [1] 3.2 Important News - The Academic Committee of the China Capital Market Society was established to provide theoretical support for the construction of a strong capital market. From December 12th to 18th, the daily trading volume of the A500ETF in the entire market exceeded 40 billion yuan for five consecutive trading days. On December 17th, the total net inflow of stock ETFs was 16.29 billion yuan, with 45 A500ETFs attracting 11.159 billion yuan, accounting for 68.5%. On December 18th, the "investment gold price" display in Shuibei disappeared, and the gold price was shown as the "jewelry gold price". The Bank of Japan Governor said that if the economic outlook is achieved, the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates. According to a Deutsche Bank survey, 57% of respondents listed the burst of the technology bubble as the top risk. European Central Bank officials expect the current interest - rate cut cycle to end. The White House economic advisor said that the CPI report was excellent, and the Fed has room to cut interest rates. OpenAI is planning a new round of up to $100 billion in financing. Meta is developing new AI models. The $63 trillion shadow banking system and the $1.8 trillion private credit market are potential risks to the global financial market. Major oilfield service companies are entering the data center field. In October, foreign holdings of US Treasury bonds decreased by $5.8 billion. The US state of Michigan approved power support for data center projects of Oracle and OpenAI [1][2] 3.3 Market Logic - Driven by external markets, the major indices of the two markets in China showed strong performance. Global investors are regaining confidence in China's long - term growth. The social security fund will carry out asset allocation scientifically. In 2025, the stock market had a net inflow of 2.26 trillion yuan. In 2026, insurance, wealth management, and pension funds will be the three major sources of incremental funds, with institutional incremental funds reaching 3.1 trillion yuan. The scale of public fixed - income + products will at least double. International funds are turning to the AI track outside the US, and the Chinese technology sector is becoming a new destination for global funds to layout AI [1][2][3] 3.4 Market Outlook - Driven by external markets, the major indices of the two markets in China showed strong performance. The social security fund will play the role of long - term funds. Global funds are re - increasing their positions in the Chinese stock market. The risk of a significant rise in the Chinese stock market in 2026 is much higher than that of a significant decline. Google plans to increase AI computing power. The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine will accelerate the flow of global funds to the Chinese capital market. The Fed will cut interest rates and expand its balance sheet. The major indices of the two markets were strongly sorted on Friday, and the main funds protected the market at the 3800 - point level of the Shanghai Composite Index. The market is expected to enter a sideways - shock phase to wait for new opportunities [1][2][3] 3.5 Trading Strategies - For stock index futures directional trading, the market is expected to enter a sideways - shock phase to wait for new opportunities. For stock index option trading, as the market is expected to enter a sideways - shock phase, do not participate in stock index call options for the time being [3]