金信期货日刊-20251222

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The rise of coking coal is a rebound driven by short - term sentiment and winter storage expectations. Medium - to long - term, investors can gradually build long positions on dips, while in the short term, they should strictly control positions [2][3][4]. - For A - shares, the market had a small decline after a short - term rise. The 15 - minute cycle rebound has just started, and it is expected to rise next week. It is recommended to buy on dips rather than chase the rise [6]. - Gold shows signs of upward movement after a period of sideways trading, and investors can try to go long [8]. - Iron ore is in the process of finding a bottom with weak domestic demand support. It is recommended to trade within a wide range by selling high and buying low [10][11]. - For glass, it weakened today, and whether the rebound has ended needs further observation. In the short term, it can be treated as a sideways market [15][16]. - For palm oil, as the production area enters the production - reduction season, if Malaysian palm oil exports remain weak, there may be inventory accumulation in December. Investors should seize short - selling opportunities [18]. - For pulp, with domestic policies boosting domestic demand, overseas pulp mills reducing production, and backward papermaking capacity being phased out, the demand for commercial pulp is expected to improve. It is expected to trade sideways [20]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Drivers: Since December, environmental protection warnings in the north have led to 20% - 35% production cuts in coking enterprises; year - end coal mine maintenance, policy "anti - involution" boost sentiment, and winter storage replenishment expectations are rising; relevant departments have released new standards for clean and efficient coal utilization [3]. - Supply and Demand: Mongolian coal imports are at a high level, and domestic high - quality production capacity is steadily increasing, with a loose supply pattern. Real estate has dragged down steel demand, and steel mill hot metal production is low, making it difficult for the rigid demand for coking coal to recover significantly [4]. - Key Levels: On December 18, the main contract reached a maximum of 1,136.5 yuan. 1,200 yuan is a strong resistance level, 1,050 yuan is a short - term support level, and the 1,000 - yuan integer level has cost support [3]. - Operation Suggestion: Medium - to long - term, gradually build long positions on dips; short - term, strictly control positions [4]. A - shares - Market Trend: The market had a small decline after a short - term rise. The financial and real estate sectors supported the market throughout the day, and the Shanghai Composite Index achieved three consecutive positive closes. The 15 - minute cycle rebound has just started [6]. - Operation Suggestion: Next week, it is recommended to buy on dips rather than chase the rise [6]. Gold - Market Trend: After a period of sideways trading, it shows signs of upward movement [8]. - Operation Suggestion: Try to go long [8]. Iron Ore - Market Trend: It is in the process of finding a bottom with weak domestic demand support [10][11]. - Operation Suggestion: Trade within a wide range by selling high and buying low [10]. Glass - Market Trend: It weakened today, and whether the rebound has ended needs further observation [15][16]. - Operation Suggestion: In the short term, treat it as a sideways market [15]. Palm Oil - Market Trend: As the production area enters the production - reduction season, if Malaysian palm oil exports remain weak, there may be inventory accumulation in December [18]. - Operation Suggestion: Seize short - selling opportunities [18]. Pulp - Market Trend: With domestic policies boosting domestic demand, overseas pulp mills reducing production, and backward papermaking capacity being phased out, the demand for commercial pulp is expected to improve [20]. - Operation Suggestion: It is expected to trade sideways [20].