策略周报20251221：重启震荡上行-20251222

Core Viewpoints - The market is expected to restart a volatile upward trend, with a favorable layout for mid-cap blue chips and strong thematic directions [9][13][14]. Market Analysis - The market is likely to experience a rebound after a period of hesitation, with the recent interest rate hike in Japan further reducing uncertainty. This sets the stage for a potential upward movement in the market [3][14]. Industry Comparison - From March 2023 to the present, the market has seen a consensus expectation for technology and dividend stocks. The report suggests that the trend of risk styles is nearing its end, with investment opportunities shifting towards mid-cap blue chips, which are expected to rise again after four years of dormancy [4][15]. Industry Allocation - Investment opportunities are identified in medium-risk stocks, focusing on three main lines to capitalize on mid-cap blue chips: 1. Cyclical Sector: Technology empowerment combined with supply constraints is leading to a re-evaluation of pricing. Attention is drawn to new materials, chemicals, and metals with improved supply-demand dynamics, as well as agricultural products [4][16]. 2. Consumer Sector: After years of stagnation, the consumer sector is at a turning point, with generally undervalued stocks and supply contraction suggesting potential price increases. Focus areas include technology-related consumption, new consumption trends, and traditional pharmaceutical consumption [4][16]. 3. Manufacturing Sector: The focus is shifting from mere "story speculation" to validating "orders and revenues." Key areas of interest include telecommunications, electronics, power equipment, and machinery with expected performance validation [4][16]. Thematic Investments - The report highlights several thematic investment areas to watch: - Aerospace and Satellites: The sector is expected to maintain strength, with potential catalysts from reusable rockets and accelerated IPO progress in satellite networks and commercial rockets [4][17]. - Artificial Intelligence: The AI theme is currently influenced by U.S. market narratives and may see short-term performance improvements following recent developments [5][17]. - Service Consumption: With significant recent gains, policies aimed at improving demand are expected to become a main theme by 2026, making service consumption a key area of focus [5][17]. - Autonomous Driving: Developments in domestic L3 licensing and profitability milestones for companies like Pony.ai, along with international validation phases for robotaxis, suggest a renewed focus on this sector [5][17]. - Nuclear Fusion: The nuclear fusion sector is anticipated to experience a series of industrial catalysts, transitioning from theoretical research to practical engineering, which is expected to generate substantial investment demand [5][18]. - Semiconductor Expansion and Domestic Substitution: Expectations for domestic wafer fabs to expand production next year, along with the capitalization of major domestic memory chip manufacturers, highlight opportunities in domestic chip manufacturing and related materials [5][19]. - Upstream Price Increases: The report notes a continuing trend of price increases in the short term, driven by supply constraints and structural demand growth, particularly in non-ferrous metals and the new energy sector [6][19].