美联储官员鹰派表态降息，中国国常会部署稳经济工作

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no relevant information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's hawkish officials indicate no interest rate cuts, and the dollar will fluctuate in the short term. The U.S. stock market is expected to fluctuate strongly, A-shares may maintain a high-level narrow-range shock in the cross-year market, and the long-term varieties of treasury bond futures are expected to recover moderately. In the commodity market, the prices of various products have different trends and investment suggestions based on their respective fundamentals [13][18][21][23]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Fed's hawkish officials suggest no interest rate cuts, and the dollar will fluctuate in the short term. The investment advice is to maintain the dollar index's shock [13][14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The inflation data has not soared as expected, and the consumer confidence index has improved slightly. The Fed officials have significant internal differences, and the U.S. stock market is expected to fluctuate strongly. The investment advice is to take a long position [18][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - During the recent macro window period, the A-share market is stable, and the cross-year market may maintain a high-level narrow-range shock. The investment advice is to evenly allocate long positions in each stock index [21][22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations, and the probability of a significant decline in ultra-long-term varieties is decreasing. The investment advice is to pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities of contracts such as TF2603 [23][25]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal is expected to continue to decline, and attention should be paid to possible policy changes after the price reaches 700 yuan [26][27]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - The iron ore price will continue to fluctuate, and the short-term is weak while the medium-term is neutral [28][30]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The cost and supply-demand side lack positive factors. If there is no major abnormal reduction in South America, the May contract of soybean meal should be shorted on rallies [32]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The oil market is weak. The supply pressure of palm oil in December is still large, and the prices of soybean oil and rapeseed oil are difficult to rise [34][35]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Although there is no major downward drive in the short term, chasing up should be cautious. Attention should be paid to downstream transmission and macro dynamics [39][40]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to have limited downward space, but the short-term bearish sentiment is still being released. It is recommended to wait and see [45][46]. 2.7 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot-Rolled Coil) - The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and it is recommended to treat it with a shock mindset [50][51]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The short-term rice-flour price difference may not have the fundamental basis to deviate significantly from the processing fee, and it may widen again after approaching the previous low [52]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Contracts 03 and 05 are expected to maintain a weak shock [53][54]. 2.10 Non-Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Macro factors will support the price in the short term, but the weak short-term fundamentals will limit the upward elasticity. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [58][59]. 2.11 Non-Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The current production cut scale is insufficient to reverse the inventory accumulation pattern. It is recommended to pay attention to shorting opportunities on rallies [62]. 2.12 Non-Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The spot price is expected to be difficult to fall, and new prices need to be transmitted downstream. It is recommended that investors hold positions cautiously [64][66]. 2.13 Non-Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - If cobalt pricing is implemented, long positions can be considered at low levels. If the RKAB is set at 250 million wet tons, the nickel price will rise significantly. Otherwise, shorting on rallies is recommended [68][69]. 2.14 Non-Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - In the short term, the strong de-stocking trend and the delay of large factory restart support the bullish sentiment. After the restart, the price may回调, and it is recommended to buy on dips in the medium and long term [73][74]. 2.15 Non-Ferrous Metals (Lead) - In the context of weak supply and demand, the lead price is difficult to have a unilateral market. It is recommended to wait and see [75][76]. 2.16 Non-Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - In the short term, the zinc price will follow the macro and next year's expectations. In the medium term, it is still easy to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended to buy on dips [77]. 2.17 Non-Ferrous Metals (Tin) - Resource nationalism will bring long-term supply constraints, and inventory accumulation is the main pressure on the short-term price increase. Attention should be paid to the risk of price decline [79][80]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [82][83]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The crude oil price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [85][86]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The previous long positions of PTA and PX can be held for observation. Attention should be paid to the weak crude oil price and the restart progress of PTA devices [88]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - With the commissioning of new devices and the restart of previous maintenance devices, the processing fee pressure of bottle chips may increase [92].