油脂周报：油脂呈现震荡偏弱，整体仍缺乏驱动-20251222

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, the overall trend of oils and fats has been oscillating and weakening, lacking positive drivers. The final US biodiesel plan may be postponed until next year, and the inventory of Malaysian palm oil remains high with slow destocking, which is unfavorable for the rise of oils and fats. However, after a significant decline, the downside space is expected to be limited, so it is recommended to be cautious about short - chasing [4][26]. - The inventory inflection point of domestic soybean oil has arrived, and it is currently in a state of continuous small - scale destocking, but the overall inventory is not in short supply. The price of soybean oil mainly fluctuates following the overall trend of oils and fats. With sufficient rapeseed oil supply, the price of rapeseed oil is expected to face pressure [4][26]. Summary by Directory First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation International Market - Indonesian Palm Oil: In October, the production increased to 476,000 tons, still lower than last year's same - period level and the 5 - year average. Exports increased but remained at a low level. Domestic consumption was stable and high, leading to inventory destocking to 233,000 tons, which is still at a low level compared to the historical same - period. The CPO tender price is oscillating weakly around $850, significantly lower than last year's same - period. In November, exports decreased by 13% to 1.75 million tons, mainly due to large declines in exports to Africa and the Asia - Pacific region [10]. - Indian Market: In November, the import of edible oils was 1.15 million tons, a 13% month - on - month decrease, at a relatively low level compared to the historical same - period. Among them, palm oil imports slightly increased to 630,000 tons, while soybean and sunflower oil imports decreased to 370,000 tons and 140,000 tons respectively, but soybean oil imports were still high. The port inventory of edible oils in November was at a high level of 1.02 million tons, with palm oil inventory increasing to 630,000 tons. It is expected that India's edible oil imports in the 25/26 fiscal year will continue to increase to over 17 million tons, with a possible decrease in soybean oil imports but still at a relatively high level, and palm oil imports will increase from 7.5 million tons to 9.3 million tons. There are rumors of cargo cancellation for Argentine and Chinese soybean oil [13]. Domestic Market - Palm Oil: As of December 12, 2025 (week 50), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 652,700 tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 4.53%. The origin's quotation was stable, the import profit inversion widened to around - 200. There were rumors of near - month purchases this week, and the basis was stable. In the short term, palm oil lacks obvious drivers, maintaining an oscillating and weakening trend. After a significant decline, the downside space is limited. It is recommended to be cautious about short - chasing. Palm oil can consider betting on a rebound after stabilizing, but the rebound height may be limited, and the idea of shorting after the rebound is maintained [16]. - Soybean Oil: As of December 12, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 1.1374 million tons, a decrease of 25,600 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 2.20%. The inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the historical same - period, but the inventory inflection point has arrived, and the basis is stable with a slight decline. This week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.1306 million tons, and the operating rate was 58.61%, an increase from the previous week. The market trading was light, and some oil mills stopped production due to a shortage of soybeans. In the later stage, as soybean arrivals gradually decrease, soybean crushing will decline from the high level, and soybean oil inventory may slightly destock, but the overall inventory is not in short supply. In the short term, domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient, and it lacks obvious drivers, expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend, mainly following the overall situation of oils and fats [21]. - Rapeseed Oil: As of December 12, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 336,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons, still at a high level compared to the historical same - period, but the inventory is continuously destocking. The FOB quotation of European rapeseed oil is stable around $1100, and the import profit inversion of European rapeseed oil has widened to around - 1500. This week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, and the operating rate was 0%, with rapeseed inventory reaching the bottom. Currently, the clearance of Australian rapeseed by COFCO is relatively smooth. The market is worried about the commercial opening of Australian rapeseed. Coupled with the weakening of international rapeseed prices and good import crushing profits, funds are shorting the crushing margin, causing the futures price to continue to weaken. With sufficient rapeseed oil supply, the price of rapeseed oil is expected to face pressure. At the same time, the market is still focused on the clearance speed and crushing situation after the arrival of Australian rapeseed. The continuous destocking of rapeseed oil provides some support for its price [24]. Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral Strategy: Palm oil can consider betting on a rebound after stabilizing, but the rebound height may be limited. The idea of shorting after the rebound is maintained. Soybean oil lacks drivers and may follow the overall trend of oils and fats. The core issue of rapeseed oil lies in policy changes, and it is recommended to wait and see. - Arbitrage Strategy: Wait and see. - Option Strategy: Wait and see. Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking - Malaysian Palm Oil Supply and Demand: Data on monthly production, exports, and inventory of Malaysian palm oil are presented in charts, showing the trends over different years [32][33]. - Indonesian Palm Oil Supply and Demand: Data on monthly production, exports, and inventory of Indonesian palm oil are presented in charts, showing the trends over different years [38]. - International Soybean Oil Market: Data on NOPA's US soybean crushing volume, US soybean oil monthly inventory, Brazilian soybean monthly crushing volume, Brazilian soybean oil monthly inventory, Argentine soybean monthly crushing volume, and Argentine soybean oil inventory are presented in charts, showing the trends over different years [43]. - Indian Oil Supply and Demand: Data on Indian edible oil monthly consumption, monthly imports, palm oil monthly imports, sunflower oil monthly imports, soybean oil monthly imports, and edible oil port inventory are presented in charts, showing the trends over different years [47]. - Domestic Rapeseed Oil Import Profit: Data on the import profit of European rapeseed oil over different years are presented in a chart [59]. - Domestic Oils and Fats Supply and Demand: Data on domestic soybean weekly crushing volume, soybean oil weekly consumption, soybean oil weekly trading volume, palm oil monthly import volume, palm oil monthly sales volume, palm oil weekly trading volume, domestic rapeseed weekly crushing volume, domestic rapeseed oil import volume, domestic rapeseed oil monthly consumption, and domestic oils and fats spot basis are presented in charts, showing the trends over different years [63][65][67]. - Domestic Oils and Fats Commercial Inventory: Data on domestic port rapeseed oil inventory, total domestic oils and fats inventory, domestic soybean oil commercial inventory, domestic palm oil commercial inventory, and the inventory of the three major oils and fats are presented in charts, showing the trends over different years [75].