Report Title - Weekly Report on Stock Index Futures: Stock Indexes Expected to Rise Again [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, the market first declined and then rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing the 3900-point mark. The performance of technology stocks was poor, while traditional industries such as retail strengthened. It is necessary to closely observe whether there will be a style switch, which will have a significant impact on stock indexes [5]. - At the beginning of this week, the market is expected to strengthen under the combined effect of the upward inertia of A-shares and the rebound of U.S. stocks. Each index is facing pressure at the integer mark. If there is a style switch, the stock index is still expected to reach a new level [5]. - The delivery of the 2512 contract of stock index futures was completed smoothly. After the contract change, the discount of each contract may widen. Recently, the short - side main force has significantly increased positions, possibly due to increased hedging needs [5]. Summary by Directory Part I: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendations - Weekly News Summary - In November in China, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size was 4.8%, lower than the expected 5%. From January to November, the year - on - year growth rate was 6.0%. The urban surveyed unemployment rate in November was 5.1%, the same as the previous month [4]. - From January to November in China, the year - on - year decline of fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2.6%, greater than the expected 2.2%. Real estate development investment was 7.8591 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decline of 15.9%, among which residential investment was 6.0432 trillion yuan, a decline of 15.0% [4]. - In November in China, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.3898 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. Excluding automobiles, the retail sales of consumer goods was 3.9444 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.5% [4]. - In November in the U.S., the year - on - year increase of CPI was 2.7%, significantly lower than the market expectation of 3.1%. The year - on - year increase of core CPI was 2.6%, also lower than the market expectation of 3% [4]. - In November in the U.S., the seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls increased by 64,000, higher than the expected 50,000. The unemployment rate was 4.6%, the highest since September 2021, higher than the expected 4.4% [4]. - Comprehensive Analysis - The market last week first declined and then rebounded. The performance of technology stocks was poor, while traditional industries strengthened. It is necessary to observe whether there will be a style switch [5]. - At the beginning of this week, the market is expected to strengthen. Each index is facing pressure at the integer mark. If there is a style switch, the stock index is still expected to rise [5]. - The delivery of the 2512 contract of stock index futures was completed smoothly. After the contract change, the discount may widen. Recently, the short - side main force has increased positions [5]. - Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: The market shows a volatile trend. Adopt the strategy of selling high and buying low [6]. - Arbitrage: Implement the spot - futures arbitrage strategy of going long on the 2603 contracts of IM and IC and shorting ETFs [6]. - Options: Adopt the double - buying strategy [6] Part II: Weekly Data Tracking - A - share Index Performance - Last week, the market showed a volatile trend. The CSI 300 declined by 0.28%, the SSE 50 rose by 0.32%, the CSI 500 declined by 0.003%, and the CSI 1000 declined by 0.56% [17]. - A - share Trading Volume - Last week, the trading volume in the A - share market shrank to 8.7 trillion yuan, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 10.1% compared with the previous week. The trading volume proportion of major indexes was stable, with the trading volume proportion of the CSI 300 slightly decreasing [22]. - A - share Stock Price Changes - Last week, stocks gradually showed a general upward trend, with the proportion of rising stocks on Friday reaching 82%, a recent high. The proportion of limit - down stocks significantly decreased, and the proportion of limit - up stocks exceeded 1% continuously from Wednesday. The proportion of limit - down stocks on Thursday and Friday was only 0.1% [23]. - A - share Margin Trading - Last week, the margin balance in the A - share market slightly declined, remaining at the level of 2.48 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.6% of the A - share floating market value. Since December 16, there has been continuous net margin repayment, but the amount is small. The proportion of margin trading in the A - share trading volume remains above 10% [33]. - A - share Industry Performance - Different industries showed different performance in terms of weekly gains and losses, with the highest weekly increase reaching 6.7% and the lowest reaching - 4.0% [36]. - A - share Industry Capital Flow - The net weekly capital inflow and net weekly margin trading inflow of different industries varied [40]. - Stock Index Futures Basis Changes - The basis of different stock index futures contracts showed different trends [46]. - Stock Index Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes - The trading volume and open interest of different stock index futures contracts changed over time [49]. - Comparison of Stock Index Futures and Spot Trading Volume - The trading volume of different stock index futures contracts and their corresponding spot indexes showed different relationships [52]. - Stock Index Futures Main Open Interest - The net short - position ratios of the top five and top ten holders of different stock index futures contracts were different [54]
股指期货周报：股指有望再度上行-20251222
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-12-22 01:00