招商期货-期货研究报告：商品期货早班车-20251222

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It offers market performance, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each sector, suggesting different investment approaches based on the specific market conditions of each commodity [1][2][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Gold - Market performance: International gold prices oscillated at high levels on Friday, and international silver prices reached $67 [1] - Fundamental analysis: New York Fed President Williams said there is no urgency for further rate cuts, and the November CPI data is somewhat distorted. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. The US intercepted a third oil tanker near Venezuela, and the French budget negotiation broke down. The Fed chair selection process continues. Domestic gold ETFs had a small outflow, and COMEX gold inventory decreased by 2 tons to 1119.8 tons, while Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory remained unchanged at 91.7 tons. SPDR gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 1052.5 tons. COMEX silver inventory increased by 17.1 tons to 14110.9 tons, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 11.5 tons to 899.6 tons, and iShares silver ETF holdings increased by 47.94 tons to 16,066.23 tons. London's silver inventory in November increased by 932 tons to 27183 tons, and India imported about 1000 tons of silver in October [1] - Trading strategy: With the Fed's expected rate cut, gold prices regained strength, and it is recommended to go long. For silver, the overseas market is tight, but there has been continuous inventory accumulation in the domestic market for many days, so it is suggested to take profit on long positions temporarily [1] Base Metals Copper - Market performance: Copper prices oscillated strongly on Friday [2] - Fundamental analysis: The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike was implemented on Friday, and the central bank officials' statements were relatively mild, so the market traded the fact that the negative impact was over. The US proposed the "Genesis" strategic plan, and the US stock market strengthened significantly, boosting market risk appetite. On the supply side, the tight situation of copper mines remains unchanged, and the annual processing fee is set at a low level of $0, in line with market expectations. The spot discounts of flat - water copper in East and South China were 190 yuan and 10 yuan respectively, the refined - scrap copper price difference was about 4000 yuan, and the scrap copper ticket point was around 7.5%. The price difference between US and London copper narrowed significantly [2] - Trading strategy: It is recommended to buy on dips [2] Aluminum - Market performance: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract on Friday increased by 1.05% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 22185 yuan/ton, the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 330 yuan/ton, and the LME price was $2931/ton [2] - Fundamental analysis: On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. On the demand side, the weekly aluminum product operating rate decreased slightly [2] - Trading strategy: The macro - environment is warm, social inventory continues to decline, and overseas supply disruptions support prices. However, in the consumption off - season, the downstream operating rate remains low, and high aluminum prices significantly suppress the consumption of scattered orders. The spot price has difficulty rising, and the discount supply tends to increase. With the balance of long and short factors, it is expected that aluminum prices will oscillate and consolidate within the current high - level range in the short term [2] Black Industry Rebar - Market performance: The main rebar 2605 contract closed at 3114 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from the night - session closing price of the previous trading day [5] - Fundamental analysis: The supply and demand of steel are weak, and the structural differentiation continues to be significant. The demand for building materials remains weak year - on - year, but fortunately, the supply has decreased significantly year - on - year, so the contradiction is limited. The demand for plates is stable, direct and indirect exports remain at a high level, the production has decreased rapidly, and the inventory reduction speed has marginally recovered. The rebar futures discount is large, and the valuation is low; the discount of hot - rolled coil futures is basically the same as the previous period, and the valuation is high. Steel mills continue to lose money, and production may continue to decline marginally and slightly. It is expected that the steel market will oscillate this week [5] - Trading strategy: Mainly wait and see, and try to short the rebar 2605 contract. The reference range for RB05 is 3080 - 3130 [5] Iron Ore - Market performance: The main iron ore 2605 contract closed at 779 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the night - session closing price of the previous trading day [5] - Fundamental analysis: The supply and demand of iron ore are weak. The molten iron production volume according to the Steel Union's statistics decreased by 2.7 tons week - on - week, showing a continuous decline for five weeks, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%. The third round of price cuts has been proposed but not yet implemented. Steel mills' profits are poor, and the subsequent blast furnace production may stabilize or decline. The supply side conforms to the seasonal pattern, with a slight year - on - year increase. The supply and demand of iron ore are marginally weakening. Iron ore maintains a forward discount structure, but the absolute level remains at a relatively low level in the same period of history, and the valuation is moderately high. It is expected that the iron ore market will oscillate this week [5] - Trading strategy: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 765 - 800 [5] Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market performance: Last Friday, CBOT soybeans continued to decline, trading on the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America and weak demand [6] - Fundamental analysis: On the supply side, there is a small - scale production reduction in the near term, and in the long term, South America is expected to have a large supply in a normal year, and the current sowing and growth are normal. On the demand side, US soybean crushing is strong, but the export progress is slow. In general, the global supply and demand are expected to be loose [6] - Trading strategy: US soybeans are weak, trading on the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America and weak exports. In China, the cost - side drive is downward in the short term [7] Corn - Market performance: Corn futures prices oscillated narrowly, and corn spot prices declined slightly [7] - Fundamental analysis: The national corn channel inventory is at a low level, with a need for inventory building, and the procurement is concentrated in the Northeast, leading to logistics tension and a short - term shortage of effective supply. However, the continuous rise in corn prices has intensified the losses of downstream deep - processing enterprises, and after the continuous inventory replenishment in the feed sector, the procurement enthusiasm will decline. It is expected that the short - term corn spot prices will be weak. Attention should be paid to changes in weather and policies [7] - Trading strategy: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the futures prices are expected to oscillate [7] Energy Chemicals LLDPE - Market performance: On Friday, the main LLDPE contract continued to decline slightly. The low - price spot quotation in North China was 6230 yuan/ton, the basis of the 01 contract was 40 (spot price minus futures price), the basis was stable, and the market trading performance was average. In the overseas market, the US dollar price decreased slightly, and the current import window is closed [9] - Fundamental analysis: On the supply side, new plants are put into operation, some plants have reduced loads and shut down, and the domestic supply pressure has eased. The import window remains closed, and it is expected that the subsequent import volume will decrease slightly. Overall, the domestic supply pressure is rising but at a slower pace. On the demand side, the current off - season for downstream agricultural films, and the demand is weakening month - on - month, while the demand in other fields remains stable [9] - Trading strategy: In the short term, the industrial chain inventory is slightly reduced, the basis is weak, and the supply and demand are weak. As it enters the delivery month, it is mainly expected to oscillate weakly, and the upside space is significantly restricted by the import window. In the long term, the new production capacity will decrease in the first half of next year, and the supply - demand pattern will improve. It is recommended to buy on dips in the far - month contracts [9]