铂钯交易热情高涨，连创上市以来新高

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall macro - environment is still relatively loose, with a mild slowdown in the employment market and no obvious signs of strong inflation, which is favorable for precious metal pricing [4]. - Platinum and palladium are in a tight - balance pattern. The demand gap for platinum will remain, while the demand gap for palladium is gradually improving [4]. - The news that the EU is preparing to relax the rules on banning internal combustion engine vehicles has boosted the future demand prospects of platinum and palladium, releasing price elasticity [5]. - Platinum and palladium may operate in the context of a tight fundamental situation and a loose macro - environment. It is not recommended to chase high prices, and the strategy of buying on dips along the MA5 daily line is suggested. Also, consider the opportunity to go long on platinum and short on palladium, and keep an eye on options [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Macro - aspect: This week, multiple important economic data were released, showing a continuous game between economic data and the Fed's policy. The US November non - farm payrolls slightly rebounded, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, reaching a four - year high. Weak PMI data on Wednesday strengthened the expectation of economic slowdown, boosting interest - rate cut trading. The unexpectedly slow CPI data on Thursday only brought a short - term market rally, and then officials questioned the data's authenticity due to the government shutdown. Fed "third - in - command" Williams' hawkish speech on Friday reversed the optimistic sentiment brought by the CPI data, pushing up the US dollar index. The uncertainty of the Fed chairperson's selection also affects the market. Overall, the employment market is cooling moderately, inflation shows no obvious signs of strengthening, and the macro - environment is still loose, which is beneficial for precious metal pricing [4]. - Fundamental - aspect: There is limited high - frequency fundamental data for platinum and palladium in the market. From a quarterly and annual perspective, platinum and palladium are in a tight - balance pattern. The demand gap for platinum will remain, while that for palladium is gradually improving [4]. - News - aspect: Bloomberg reported that the EU is preparing to relax the rules on banning internal combustion engine vehicles starting from 2035, which boosts the future demand prospects of platinum and palladium and releases price elasticity [5]. - Futures market: Due to the impact of news and capital allocation, the prices of non - ferrous metals in the overseas market fell on the evening of December 12, while the price of platinum soared. Affected by this, the domestic platinum price opened high and went higher on the 15th, and finally reached the first daily limit. Subsequently, the trading atmosphere in the market continued to heat up, and the trading volume increased significantly. It reached the daily limit again on the 17th, and the highest price on the 18th was close to the daily limit [5]. - Trading strategies: - Single - side trading: Platinum and palladium may operate in the context of a tight fundamental situation and a loose macro - environment. It is not recommended to chase high prices. The strategy of buying on dips along the MA5 daily line is suggested. Due to the large price fluctuations and high contract leverage, and the lack of night trading in the domestic market, there is a risk of gap - opening when the domestic market opens. It is recommended to manage positions well [5]. - Arbitrage: Consider the opportunity to go long on platinum and short on palladium [5]. - Options: Keep an eye on options [5]. 3.2 Trading and Arbitrage Data Tracking - Weekly trading data of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange: As of the close on Friday (December 19), the total positions of the PT contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 33,474 lots, a net increase of 22,304 lots compared with the previous week, and the weekly trading volume was approximately 273.94 billion yuan. The total positions of the PD contracts were 14,011 lots, a net increase of 10,548 lots compared with the previous week, and the weekly trading volume was approximately 143.09 billion yuan [24]. - Spot arbitrage: - Platinum: There are conditions for arbitrage by buying Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot and selling long - term Guangzhou Futures Exchange contracts for delivery, with a theoretical profit of 10.76 yuan/gram (compared with - 0.77 yuan/gram last week). There are also conditions for arbitrage by buying London platinum spot and selling long - term Guangzhou Futures Exchange contracts for delivery, with a theoretical profit of 45.98 yuan/gram (compared with 5.09 yuan/gram last week) [27]. - Palladium: There are conditions for arbitrage by buying domestic palladium spot and selling long - term Guangzhou Futures Exchange contracts for delivery, with a theoretical profit of 47.93 yuan/gram (compared with 0.97 yuan/gram last week). There are also conditions for arbitrage by buying London palladium spot and selling long - term Guangzhou Futures Exchange contracts for delivery, with a theoretical profit of 58.72 yuan/gram (compared with 0.87 yuan/gram last week) [26][27]. 3.3 Fundamental Data Tracking - Platinum supply and demand: - Supply: It is expected that in 2025, both supply and demand for platinum will decline. However, due to the different bases and decline rates in 2024, there will still be a supply - demand gap of 26 tons in the platinum market, causing the above - ground inventory to continue to decline for the third year to 93 tons, equivalent to about 4.5 months of demand [30][32]. - Demand: The demand structure of platinum is relatively healthy. Although the demand for platinum has increased rapidly in some areas, the demand in the main areas such as the automotive, chemical, and jewelry industries remains relatively stable. In the future, platinum prices may break through further if there is a more severe structural shortage of spot or further digestion of the current above - ground inventory, and market investors believe that platinum will experience continuous high - speed growth in specific areas [32][33]. - Palladium supply and demand: - Supply and demand situation: It is expected that in 2025, both the supply and demand of palladium will decline. The decline in the demand side is greater than that in the supply side, and there will be a supply - demand gap of 0.5 tons, resulting in a tight - balance state. The demand tension is relatively better than that of platinum [35][36]. - Inventory situation: According to WPIC, the above - ground inventory of palladium is estimated to be about 350 tons by 2024, which is the lowest level in more than half a century but still equivalent to 14 months of demand. From the perspective of supply - demand balance, although the palladium price is near the cost line and at the bottom of the cycle, the fundamental factors may provide limited support for the palladium price in the short term. In the future, the palladium price may fluctuate significantly due to factors such as the macro - environment, the linkage with platinum prices, market sentiment, and structural spot shortages [36]. - CFTC positions: - Platinum: As of December 9, the long positions of platinum asset management institutions in CFTC were 37,401 lots, the short positions were 22,507 lots, and the net long positions were 14,894 lots (a net increase of 4,528 lots compared with the previous period). The long positions of platinum commercial institutions were 16,228 lots, the short positions were 41,547 lots, and the net short positions were 25,319 lots (a net increase of 2,033 lots compared with the previous period) [38][39]. - Palladium: As of December 9, the long positions of palladium asset management institutions in CFTC were 7,832 lots, the short positions were 7,851 lots, and the net long positions were - 19 lots (a net increase of 695 lots compared with the previous period). The long positions of palladium commercial institutions were 5,818 lots, the short positions were 7,538 lots, and the net short positions were 1,720 lots (a net increase of 229 lots compared with the previous period) [41][47]. - Inventory situation: - Platinum: As of December 19, 2025, the total CME platinum inventory was 624,733.09 troy ounces, an increase of 10,171.75 troy ounces compared with December 12. The registered inventory remained unchanged, and the unregistered inventory increased by 10,171.746 troy ounces [48]. - Palladium: As of December 19, 2025, the total CME palladium inventory was 189,090.40 troy ounces, a decrease of 139.30 troy ounces compared with December 12. The registered inventory increased by 2,676.286 troy ounces, and the unregistered inventory decreased by 2,815.59 troy ounces [52]. - Lease rates: - Platinum: The report provides the annualized lease rates for one - month, three - month, six - month, and one - year platinum leases [56][57]. - Palladium: The report provides the annualized lease rates for one - month, three - month, six - month, and one - year palladium leases [59][60].