锌：多空因素交织，沪锌价格宽幅震荡

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The zinc market is currently influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, causing the Shanghai zinc price to fluctuate widely. In the short term, the expected reduction in domestic smelter production and the continuous decline in domestic social inventories support the zinc price. However, the weakening consumption and continuous inventory build - up overseas put pressure on the LME zinc price, which in turn affects the Shanghai zinc price. Traders should focus on the start - up of domestic smelters and macro factors [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy 3.1.1 Trading Logic - Supply - side: In the mining sector, domestic zinc concentrate processing fees have stabilized. The import window for zinc concentrate has reopened, and the price difference between imported and domestic zinc concentrates has narrowed, reducing the smelters' enthusiasm for domestic zinc concentrates. The trading volume of imported zinc ore has been light recently. On the smelting side, the reduction in zinc concentrate processing fees and lower zinc prices have shrunk the profits of most domestic smelters, and there is an expected further increase in the reduction of domestic refined zinc production in December [5]. - Demand - side: The operating rate of galvanized enterprises has continued to decline, while the operating rates of die - casting and zinc oxide enterprises are acceptable. Domestic refined zinc consumption has gradually weakened as the consumption season approaches [5]. - Inventory: As of December 18, the total zinc ingot inventory in seven major regions monitored by SMM was 122,200 tons, a decrease of 6,100 tons from December 11 and 3,500 tons from December 15. The continuous decline in domestic inventories provides some support for the zinc price [5]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy - Single - side trading: The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely. - Arbitrage trading: It is recommended to wait and see [5]. 3.2 Market Data - The report mentions aspects such as spot premiums, basis in major consumption areas, absolute prices, monthly spreads, trading volume, and open interest of Shanghai zinc, as well as social inventories, bonded area inventories, LME inventories, LME cancelled warrant ratios, and LME inventory distribution by region, but no specific numerical analysis is provided [7][13][16][17]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Zinc Ore Supply - Global and Domestic Production: From January to October 2025, global zinc concentrate production was 10.4892 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 737,600 tons or 7.56%. Overseas zinc concentrate production was 7.0222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 532,600 tons or 8.21%, and Chinese zinc concentrate production was 3.467 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 205,000 tons or 6.28%. In November, domestic zinc concentrate production was 311,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.86% and a year - on - year increase of 5.24%. It is expected that December production will increase by 2.76% month - on - month to 320,000 tons [28]. - Raw Material Inventory: As of November, domestic smelter raw material inventory increased by 0.48 days year - on - year to 20.8 days, but has been decreasing month by month recently. The inventory of zinc concentrates in major domestic ports increased by 12,000 tons month - on - month to 312,000 tons [28][43]. 3.3.2 Zinc Ore Import - Import Volume: In October 2025, the import volume of zinc concentrates was 340,900 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month decrease of 32.56% (164,500 physical tons) and a year - on - year increase of 2.97%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume of zinc concentrates was 4.3489 million tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 36.59%. In November, the import volume is expected to recover [30]. - Import Source: In October 2025, the top three import sources were Peru (95,700 physical tons, accounting for 28.1%), Australia (49,800 physical tons, accounting for 14.6%), and Russia (32,400 physical tons, accounting for 9.5%) [30]. 3.3.3 Domestic Ore Supply - Overall, domestic ore supply has decreased, and imported zinc concentrates are expected to decline. It is expected that the supply of domestic zinc concentrates in November may decrease [42]. 3.3.4 Zinc Ore Processing Fees - In December, the monthly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrates was 2,000 yuan/ton. On December 19, the weekly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrates was 1,600 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index was adjusted down by 0.43 US dollars/dry ton to 50.13 US dollars/dry ton [47]. 3.3.5 Global Refined Zinc Production - From January to October 2025, global refined zinc production was 11.5147 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 159,500 tons or 1.4%; consumption was 11.3905 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 102,900 tons or 0.91%. There was a cumulative surplus of 124,200 tons. In October, global refined zinc production was 1.2187 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.76%, and demand was 1.2193 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.76%, with a shortage of 600 tons [51]. 3.3.6 Domestic Refined Zinc Supply - Smelter Operating Rate: In November, the operating rate of domestic refined zinc enterprises was 87.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.06%. Large - scale enterprises had an operating rate of 91.56%, a month - on - month increase of 0.55%; medium - scale enterprises had an operating rate of 85.83%, a month - on - month decrease of 7.23%; small - scale enterprises had an operating rate of 76.05%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.81% [54]. - Production Volume: In November, SMM's domestic refined zinc production was 595,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.56% and a year - on - year increase of 16.75%. It is expected that December production will be 570,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.08% and a year - on - year increase of 10.49% [55]. 3.3.7 Zinc Ingot Import and Export - Import: In October 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 18,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 67.39%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 277,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 26.63%. - Export: In October, the export volume of refined zinc was 8,500 tons, with a net import of 10,300 tons. The export volume is expected to increase in December, which will alleviate the domestic surplus situation to some extent [58][59]. 3.3.8 Downstream Consumption - Primary Processing: The operating rate of galvanized enterprises has continued to decline, while the operating rates of die - casting and zinc oxide enterprises are acceptable. The report also mentions the raw material and finished product inventories of primary processing enterprises, but no specific data is provided [5][66][67]. - End - use Industries: The report covers real - estate construction data, infrastructure investment, domestic automobile production, and domestic white - goods production, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [73][84][94][97].