2025年12月22日：期货市场交易指引-20251222

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures are recommended to be bought on dips in the medium to long term; Treasury bonds are expected to trade in a range [1][5]. - Black Building Materials: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; Rebar is for range trading; Glass is recommended to be sold on rallies [1][8][10]. - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper, tin, and gold are for range trading; Aluminum is advised to be observed more closely; Nickel is recommended to be observed or sold on rallies; Silver is suggested to hold long positions and be cautious about new positions; Lithium carbonate is expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation [1][11][12][18]. - Energy and Chemicals: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; Caustic soda and soda ash are advised to be observed temporarily; Polyolefins are expected to be in a relatively weak oscillation [1][19][22][25]. - Cotton and Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation; PTA is expected to rise in an oscillatory manner; Apples and jujubes are expected to be in a relatively weak oscillation [1][29][30][31]. - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: For live pigs, short - term contracts are recommended to be sold on rallies, and long - term contracts should be bullish with caution; Eggs are expected to have limited upside; Corn is advised to be cautious about chasing highs in the short term and hedged on rallies by grain holders; For soybean meal, short - term contracts are to be treated strongly on dips, and long - term contracts are to be treated weakly; Oils are recommended to be cautious about short - chasing [1][31][33][36]. Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It analyzes the impact of factors such as international political situations, central bank policies, and industry supply - demand changes on different futures markets, and gives corresponding investment strategies [1][5][8]. Summary by Categories Macro Finance - Index Futures: Due to factors such as the Fed Chair competition, central bank policies, and international political situations, the market's main line rotates quickly. After the recent support from both positive and negative meetings ends, index futures are expected to trade in a range. In the medium to long term, they are bullish, and investors can buy on dips [5]. - Treasury Bonds: Considering factors like the capital market meeting and the upcoming release of the loan prime rate, if the ultra - long - term yield does not reach a new high and the capital rate remains stable, the short - and medium - term rates may stabilize. Treasury bonds are expected to trade in a range [5]. Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: The market is in a game between strong bearish realities and weak marginal support. With high inventory of imported Mongolian coal, weak demand from downstream steel mills, and potential support from domestic coal mine production cuts and cost lines, short - term trading is recommended, mainly using range - right - side trading [8]. - Rebar: After the important meetings, the market enters a policy vacuum period. Although there is a weakening expectation for steel exports, the current supply - demand contradiction is not significant. Steel prices have limited upside and downside, and range trading is recommended [8]. - Glass: With factors such as the increase in raw material prices, weak demand from downstream processing plants, and the failure of the expected cold - repair of production capacity, the glass market is under pressure. It is recommended to sell on rallies, and the near - term contracts are expected to continue to weaken [10]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The global copper concentrate supply is still tight, but factors such as year - end capital shortages and high copper prices suppressing spot purchases limit the upside. Copper prices are expected to trade in a high - level range, with the main contract of Shanghai copper expected to trade between 89,500 - 95,000 yuan/ton [11]. - Aluminum: With the increase in production capacity, the entry into the demand off - season, and the high - level volatility of aluminum prices suppressing demand, it is recommended to reduce long positions or observe [12]. - Nickel: Due to the possible loosening of nickel ore supply and the surplus pattern of refined nickel, it is recommended to observe or sell on rallies [16]. - Tin: With the tight supply of tin ore and the weak consumption of downstream consumer electronics and photovoltaics, tin prices are expected to continue to be in a relatively strong oscillation [17]. - Silver and Gold: Due to factors such as the increase in the US unemployment rate, the Fed's interest rate cut, and concerns about the US economy, the medium - term price centers of silver and gold are expected to rise. For silver, hold long positions and be cautious about new positions; for gold, use range trading and be cautious about chasing highs [18]. - Lithium Carbonate: With strong downstream demand and the continuation of the de - stocking trend, and considering the risks of mining certificates in Yichun, lithium carbonate prices are expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation [19]. Energy and Chemicals - PVC: With high开工, weak domestic demand, and uncertain export growth, PVC is expected to continue to trade in a low - level range, and attention should be paid to macro data, policies, and cost factors [19]. - Caustic Soda: With high inventory and the possible impact of alumina production cuts, it is recommended to observe temporarily and pay attention to the procurement volume of downstream industries and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [21]. - Styrene: Due to factors such as the accumulation of US gasoline inventory and the reduction of pure benzene demand, and the limited rebound space after the increase in factory load, styrene is expected to trade in a range, and attention should be paid to the price of pure benzene in January and the change of the crude oil pricing center [22]. - Rubber: With the high price of overseas raw materials and the large accumulation of domestic inventory, rubber prices are expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and the operating rate of tire enterprises [23]. - Urea: With the increase in maintenance devices and the decrease in daily output, but still high in the long - term, and the weakening of agricultural demand and the increase in supply pressure in the long - term, urea prices are expected to be in a weak oscillation [24]. - Methanol: With the recovery of domestic supply, the high - level and narrow - range fluctuation of the downstream methanol - to - olefins operating rate, and the weak traditional demand, the inventory of enterprises and ports shows different trends. Attention should be paid to the impact of the situation in Iran on methanol prices [25]. - Polyolefins: With the weakening of PE demand and the relatively stable PP supply and demand, polyolefins are expected to be in a weak oscillation. The PE main contract is expected to be in a weak oscillation, and the PP main contract is expected to trade in a range [25][26]. - Soda Ash: With the oversupply situation and the increase in production costs, and the mitigation of the supply - demand contradiction after the reduction of supply, it is recommended to observe temporarily [27]. Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: According to the USDA report, the global cotton supply - demand situation has changed slightly. With the stable consumption of new cotton and the policy expectation of the planting area in Xinjiang, the prices are expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation [29]. - PTA: Due to the uncertainty of the international oil situation and the OPEC+ production - suspension decision, the price of PTA has increased. With the continuation of de - stocking, PTA is expected to rise in an oscillatory manner, and the short - term range of 4,600 - 4,900 yuan/ton should be focused on [29][30]. - Apples and Jujubes: With the stable price of stored apples and the slow progress of jujube acquisition and the slight loosening of prices, both are expected to be in a weak oscillation [30][31]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Live Pigs: In the short term, the demand is boosted by the winter solstice pickling, but the supply pressure is still high. In the long term, although the production capacity is being reduced, it is still above the equilibrium level. Short - term contracts are recommended to be sold on rallies, and long - term contracts should be bullish with caution [31][33]. - Eggs: Currently, the supply is sufficient, but the supply pressure is gradually weakening. In the long term, the supply pressure still exists. It is recommended to wait for rallies to hedge for short - term contracts, and pay attention to factors such as chicken culling and external policies [33][34]. - Corn: In the short term, the price may be under pressure due to the increase in grain sales. In the long term, although the cost support is strong, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and the upside is limited. Grain holders can hedge on rallies [35]. - Soybean Meal: The near - term contracts are supported by cost and de - stocking expectations, while the long - term contracts are affected by the expected high yield in South America and cost reduction. Range trading is recommended, and spot enterprises can fix prices on dips [36]. - Oils: Due to factors such as the poor demand for US soybeans, the expected high yield in South America, and the improvement of the domestic supply situation, the prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are under pressure. It is recommended to be cautious about short - chasing [36][37][41].