国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20251222

Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis of various futures commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products, and gives corresponding trend forecasts and trading suggestions [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Gold: Inflation is moderately declining, with a trend strength of 0 [2][5][7]. - Silver: Reached a new high, with a trend strength of 0 [2][5][7]. - Platinum: ETF holdings increased marginally, and the price center shifted upward, with a trend strength of 1 [25][27]. - Palladium: After a slight retreat, it resumed its upward momentum, with a trend strength of 1 [25][27]. Base Metals - Copper: Spot weakness restricts price increases, with a trend strength of 0 [2][9][11]. - Zinc: Trading in a sideways range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][12][14]. - Lead: Reduced inventory supports the price, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15]. - Tin: Supply is disrupted again, with a trend strength of 1 [2][17][21]. - Aluminum: Trading within a range, with a trend strength of 1; Alumina is continuing to bottom out, with a trend strength of -1; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, with a trend strength of 0 [22][24]. - Nickel: The fundamental contradictions have not changed significantly, and concerns about Indonesian policies have increased, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel has weak supply - demand fundamentals and is affected by Indonesian nickel ore news, with a trend strength of 0 [29][33]. Energy and Chemicals - Industrial Silicon: The strategy is mainly to short on rallies, with a trend strength of -1 [2][37][40]. - Polysilicon: Trading within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][38][40]. - Iron Ore: Macro risk appetite has been boosted again, and it is trading at a high level in a volatile range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][42][43]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Macro sentiment and fundamentals resonate, and prices are firm, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][45][47]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon: The sector and fundamentals resonate, and the trend is oscillating strongly, with a trend strength of 0; Manganese silicon has a game between long and short sentiments, with a trend strength of 0 [2][49][51]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Trading in a wide - range oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][52][55]. - Log: Trading at a low level in a volatile range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][57][60]. - Para - Xylene: The trend is relatively strong, with a trend strength of 1; PTA is strongly supported by cost, with a trend strength of 1; MEG is trading within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][61][65]. - Rubber: Trading in a wide - range oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][68][69]. - Synthetic Rubber: Gradually entering an oscillating pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [2][73][75]. - Asphalt: Trading at a low level in a volatile range, and geopolitical factors should be monitored, with a trend strength of 0 [2][76][83]. - LLDPE: Some full - density products are switched in production, and valuation support is limited, with a trend strength of 0 [2][87][88]. - PP: PDH profit has recovered month - on - month, and the trend is weakly oscillating, with a trend strength of 0 [2][89][91]. - Caustic Soda: There is still pressure in the later stage, with a trend strength of 0 [2][92][95]. - Pulp: Oscillating strongly, with a trend strength of 1 [2][97][99]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a trend strength of 0 [2][108][109]. - Methanol: Oscillating with support, with a trend strength of 0 [2][111][114]. - Urea: Trading in an oscillating pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [2][115][118]. - Styrene: Oscillating in the short term, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][119]. - Soda Ash: The spot market has little change, with a trend strength of 0 [2][124][125]. - LPG: The short - term trend is weak, with a trend strength of - 1; Propylene has an expectation of supply reduction and demand increase, and the short - term trend has support, with a trend strength of 0 [2][127][131]. - PVC: The trend is weak, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][135][136]. - Fuel Oil: Mainly trading in an oscillating pattern, with support at the bottom, with a trend strength of 0; Low - sulfur fuel oil was strong at night, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rebounded slightly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][138]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: May rebound in the short term, but overall it is oscillating and bottom - seeking, with a trend strength of 0; Soybean oil is weakly running, and it is difficult to stabilize, with a trend strength of 0 [2][166][167][171]. - Soybean Meal: Overnight, US soybeans slightly declined, and Dalian soybean meal may oscillate at a low level, with a trend strength of 0; Soybean No.1 is oscillating, with a trend strength of 0 [2][172][174]. - Corn: Attention should be paid to the spot market, with a trend strength of 0 [2][175][178]. - Cotton: The futures price is oscillating strongly, while the spot trading is light, with a trend strength of 0 [2][179][184]. - Eggs: Oscillating and adjusting, with a trend strength of 0 [2][186]. - Hogs: The weakness of the spot market is emerging, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][188][193]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the purchases of oil mills, with a trend strength of 0 [2][195][197]. Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line): Pay attention to the delivery opportunities for the 02 contract, maintain rolling short - selling for the 04 contract, and focus on the progress of the peace talks in Gaza for the far - month contracts, with a trend strength of 0 [2][140][155]. Fibers - Short - Cut Fiber: Following the raw materials in the short term, with processing fees being compressed, with a trend strength of 0; Bottle chips are following the raw materials in the short term, with a trend strength of 0 [2][156][157]. Paper - Offset Printing Paper: The strategy is to wait and see, with a trend strength of 0 [2][159]. Aromatics - Pure Benzene: Oscillating mainly in the short term, with a trend strength of 0 [2][163][164].