多晶硅：价格波动较大，注意风险控制，工业硅：短期偏强，中期逢高沽空

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For polysilicon, in the long - term, anti - involution will drive price increases, and buying on dips is the best strategy. However, currently, terminal demand is weak, it takes time to implement price hikes across the industry chain. In the short - term, there is a combination of negative factors from increased warehouse receipts and positive factors from anti - involution in the industry chain, leading to large price fluctuations, so risk control is necessary [4][5]. - For industrial silicon, in the short - term, due to some manufacturers' planned joint production cuts to support prices and the strengthening of coking coal prices, the industrial silicon futures may rebound, but attention should be paid to the pressure at the 8800 level. In the medium - term, polysilicon enterprises may cut production, which may lead to a weakening of industrial silicon demand and a potential decline in prices. It is recommended to take profits on short - term long positions in time and sell short on rallies based on downstream demand changes [6][7]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Polysilicon - Supply and demand: In December, silicon wafer production scheduling decreased by 9GW month - on - month to 45GW, corresponding to a polysilicon demand of about 90,000 tons. In December, the polysilicon production was 112,000 tons, and the polysilicon inventory continued to accumulate. The current upstream inventory of polysilicon is about 2.9 million tons, the downstream raw material inventory is about 1.5 million tons, and the inventory of warehouse receipts and traders is about 400,000 tons [4]. - Price and market sentiment: Last week, some polysilicon enterprises raised the spot price to over 65,000 yuan/ton. At the Xi'an Photovoltaic Conference, all links in the upstream and downstream issued self - discipline initiatives to strictly control the operating rate and prices. The recent large - scale spot price adjustment of polysilicon has not led to short - term transactions. The increase in warehouse receipts of Orient Hope and Jinnuo on Friday last week has put some short - term downward pressure on the market [4]. - Trading strategy: - Unilateral trading: Long - term bullish, but large short - term fluctuations, need to control risks and participate with caution [5]. - Arbitrage: None [5]. - Options: None [5]. Industrial Silicon - Supply and demand: This week, the weekly output of DMC was 46,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.30%; the weekly output of polysilicon was 26,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19%; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 60%, unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 59.8%, also unchanged from the previous week. The weekly output of industrial silicon was 80,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.52%. The social inventory of industrial silicon was 553,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,000 tons. The inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 195,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,100 tons. The downstream raw material inventory was 235,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,900 tons [6]. - Trading logic: At the Guangzhou meeting, some manufacturers planned to jointly cut production to support prices. The strengthening of coking coal prices may lead to a short - term rebound in industrial silicon futures, with attention to the pressure at the 8800 level. In the medium - term, polysilicon enterprises may cut production, leading to a weakening of industrial silicon demand and a potential decline in prices [6]. - Trading strategy: - Unilateral trading: Take profits on short - term long positions and sell short near the pressure level [7]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [7]. - Arbitrage: None [7]. Chapter 2: Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data Tracking - Market performance: This week, the industrial silicon futures rebounded slightly, with the main contract closing at 8690 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon spot price remained stable this week [10]. - Downstream demand: The weekly output of DMC increased, the output of polysilicon decreased, and the operating rate of aluminum alloy was seasonally adjusted downwards. The weekly output of DMC was 46,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.30%; the weekly output of polysilicon was 26,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19%; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 60%, unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 59.8%, also unchanged from the previous week [13]. - Industrial silicon production: This week, the industrial silicon output decreased. According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 80,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.52%. The total number of open furnaces for industrial silicon this week was 245, a month - on - month decrease of 5. The number of open furnaces increased by 2 in Xinjiang, decreased by 2 in Yunnan, decreased by 4 in Gansu, and decreased by 1 in Sichuan [18]. - Inventory situation: The factory inventory increased slightly, the social inventory decreased, and the downstream raw material inventory increased. The social inventory of industrial silicon was 553,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,000 tons. The inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 195,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,100 tons. The downstream raw material inventory was 235,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,900 tons [23][24]. - Related product prices: The industrial silicon spot price remained stable this week. The prices of DMC and terminal organic silicon products also remained stable. The price of aluminum alloy increased, and the operating rate remained stable. The industrial silicon raw material price remained stable this week [30][34][43][46]. Chapter 3: Polysilicon Fundamental Data Tracking - Price trends: The prices of polysilicon and its downstream main materials are shown in the table. For example, the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, and there was no change compared with the beginning of December and the end of November [52]. - Component fundamentals: In December, the component order situation was poor, and the manufacturer's production scheduling was significantly adjusted downwards compared with November. It is expected that the domestic photovoltaic component production scheduling in December will be adjusted down to around 42GW. In terms of inventory, the European photovoltaic component inventory increased to 33.1GW, and the domestic photovoltaic manufacturer's component inventory was 31.2GW, at a relatively low - medium level [60]. - Battery chip fundamentals: The export demand for batteries was good. The inventory of specialized battery manufacturers was 9.44GW, with a slight inventory accumulation. In November, the component production scheduling was adjusted downwards, and the battery production scheduling followed suit to 48GW [61]. - Silicon wafer fundamentals: This week, the operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises was adjusted downwards, and the weekly output of silicon wafers decreased to 10.67GW. Currently, the silicon wafer link basically schedules production according to demand, and the silicon wafer inventory is 21.5GW. The silicon wafer production scheduling in December was 45GW, a month - on - month decrease of 9GW [66]. - Polysilicon fundamentals: This week, the polysilicon output decreased slightly, and the factory inventory remained at 291,000 tons. In November, the total production suspension scale of Tongwei Co., Ltd. in Yunnan and Sichuan was 370,000 tons/year. In December, the third - phase project in Inner Mongolia increased the production cut intensity. Some production capacities of GCL Technology and Asia Silicon Industry were cut, while some production capacities of Daqo New Energy and Xinte Energy climbed to full production. It is expected that the polysilicon production in December will decrease by 2,000 tons month - on - month to 112,000 tons [71].