高盛闭门会-全球市场26展望，股市波动性加剧ai主题扩散，利率新兴市场外汇

Investment Rating - The report indicates a constructive outlook for the stock market, suggesting it may continue to rise despite increased volatility [1][2]. Core Insights - Current stock and credit market valuations are high, which contradicts the macroeconomic cycle that has not yet shown typical late-cycle characteristics [1][2]. - AI capital expenditure is expected to drive growth, while a weak labor market may prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt a more accommodative stance, creating a favorable environment for the stock market [1][4]. - The cyclical growth outlook has room for upward adjustment, with tight fiscal conditions potentially pushing long-term bond yields higher, resulting in a steep yield curve [5]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Background - The macroeconomic backdrop for 2025 is described as relatively mild, with steady economic growth and a clear trend towards disinflation [2]. - The stock and credit markets are experiencing high valuations, which do not align with the current macroeconomic cycle [2]. Stock Market Outlook - The S&P 500's risk-adjusted returns are expected to be slightly lower than the highs of the past three years, but short-term valuation constraints are not strong [4]. - The market is sensitive to earnings misses and inflation concerns, with AI capital expenditure expected to create more cyclical opportunities [4][3]. Bond Market Dynamics - The report anticipates that the process of disinflation will return to a positive trajectory, keeping front-end yields low in the U.S. and the U.K. [5]. - Long-term U.S. bond yields are expected to fluctuate within a range, with a favorable outlook for U.K. government bonds due to weak economic data and supportive central bank policies [5]. Currency Market Trends - The foreign exchange market in 2026 is expected to differ significantly from 2025, with the U.S. dollar projected to depreciate moderately due to expectations of interest rate cuts [8][9]. - The Chinese yuan is expected to gradually appreciate, with policymakers likely to accept this trend to maintain export competitiveness [9]. Emerging Market Opportunities - Emerging market equities are projected to deliver a total return of approximately 15%, supported by a favorable macro environment and declining inflation [10]. - Countries with hawkish central banks, such as Hungary and Brazil, are highlighted as having favorable conditions for local rate trades [10]. Hedging Strategies - In the current late-cycle environment, long-term stock holdings are recommended, with a focus on diversification and hedging strategies [11]. - Gold and commodity arbitrage strategies are suggested as effective diversification options, while long call options are recommended for managing stock risk [11].