商贸零售行业周报：海南封关正式启动-20251222

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3] Core Insights - The retail sector experienced a significant increase of 6.66% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.94 percentage points [5][10] - The current Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio for the retail sector is 52X, which is a 3.25 percentage point increase from the previous week, with a one-year range of 31.27X to 52X [6][17] - The launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port and the implementation of a new customs supervision system are expected to create new growth opportunities for the retail sector, particularly through the expansion of the "zero tariff" product catalog [7][21][22] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The retail sector's index closed at 2458.79 points, with a weekly increase of 6.66%, ranking first among the Shenwan primary industries [5][10] - Various sub-sectors showed positive performance, with general retail up 9.67% and professional chains up 5.06% [11] Industry Dynamics - The Hainan Free Trade Port's full closure has been officially launched, allowing for maximum freedom of goods movement between Hainan and overseas, while maintaining efficient regulation with the mainland [7][21] - The "zero tariff" policy has expanded significantly, increasing the number of duty-free items from approximately 1,900 to about 6,600, enhancing the competitiveness of retail prices in Hainan [22][24] Investment Recommendations - Focus on leading duty-free retailers that hold duty-free operating licenses, as they are the most direct beneficiaries of the new policies [8][25] - High-end consumer goods and department stores are expected to benefit from the favorable retail environment created by the closure [8][25] - Modern logistics and supply chain service providers will see increased business volume due to the expected growth in people and goods movement [8][25] Valuation Metrics - The current Price-to-Book (PB) ratio for the retail sector is 2.09X, with a one-year range of 1.52X to 2.1X [6][18]