格林大华期货早盘提示：三油-20251222

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For the vegetable oil sector, due to weak external and domestic markets, the rebound failed. It is recommended to hold short positions and not to bottom - fish. For the two - meal sector, in the short term, it is expected to mainly adjust in a range, and intraday short - side operations are recommended, with new short positions added after the support level is broken [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Vegetable Oil Market Review - On December 19, the vegetable oil sector's rebound failed. The main contract of soybean oil Y2605 closed at 7712 yuan/ton, down 1.15% day - on - day, with an increase of 11,645 lots in open interest; the main contract of palm oil P2605 closed at 8292 yuan/ton, down 0.91% day - on - day, with an increase of 24,579 lots in open interest; the main contract of rapeseed oil OI2605 closed at 8744 yuan/ton, down 2.25% day - on - day, with an increase of 15,683 lots in open interest [1] Important Information - As of the end of November, NOPA member companies' soybean oil inventory was 1.513 billion pounds, up 15.95% from the end of October and 39.58% year - on - year. The EPA is expected to finalize the 2026 RVO next year. Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026. Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to exceed 20 million tons this year. Indonesia's B50 implementation is postponed to the second half of 2026. From December 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 2.4%. As of the 50th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China decreased by 4.86% week - on - week [1] Market Logic - Externally, slow exports to China, reduced domestic crushing demand, and the postponement of the US biodiesel policy led to the weak operation of US soybean oil. Poor export data from Malaysia and Indonesia pressured Malaysian palm oil. Domestically, sufficient raw material supply, accelerated auctions by CGS, and the digestion of customs policies led to the decline of domestic vegetable oils [2] Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, hold short positions in vegetable oils, do not bottom - fish or buy basis. Provide pressure and support levels for each contract, such as the Y2605 contract with a pressure level of 8400 and a support level of 7400. No arbitrage strategy is recommended [2] Two - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Market Review - On December 19, due to CGS's accelerated auction rhythm, the two - meal futures were under pressure. The main contract of soybean meal M2605 closed at 2735 yuan/ton, down 0.44% day - on - day, with a decrease of 1374 lots in open interest; the main contract of rapeseed meal RM2605 closed at 2323 yuan/ton, down 0.73% day - on - day, with an increase of 6138 lots in open interest [2] Important Information - In the 2026/2027 season, US farmers are expected to increase soybean planting area to 85 million acres. Private exporters reported soybean sales to China and unknown destinations. As of December 11, the sowing of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 97% complete. StoneX predicted Brazil's soybean output in 2025/26 to reach 178.9 million tons. As of the end of the 50th week of 2025, the inventory of imported soybeans in China increased, while the inventory of imported rapeseed decreased [2][3] Market Logic - Externally, weakening Brazilian soybean premiums and unexpected exports squeezed US soybean export shares, causing US soybeans to continue to fall. Domestically, due to slow de - stocking, the market is cautious. In the short term, Zhengzhou meal is expected to adjust in a range, and it is more sensitive to new topics near the delivery date [3] Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, conduct intraday short - side operations on soybean meal and rapeseed meal, and add new short positions after the support level is broken. Provide pressure and support levels for each contract, such as the M2605 contract with a pressure level of 2858 and a support level of 2660. No arbitrage strategy is recommended [3]