国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20251222

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Inflation is moderately declining [2][4]. - Silver: Reached a new high [2][4]. - Copper: Weakening spot market restricts price increases [2][8]. - Zinc: Trading in a sideways range [2][11]. - Lead: Reduced inventory supports prices [2][14]. - Tin: Supply is disrupted again [2][16]. - Aluminum: Trading in a range [2][21]. - Alumina: Continuing to decline [2][21]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][21]. - Platinum: ETF holdings are increasing marginally, and the price center is moving upwards [2][23]. - Palladium: Resumed its upward momentum after a slight retreat [2][23]. - Nickel: Fundamental contradictions have not changed significantly, and Indonesian policies have increased concerns [2][27]. - Stainless steel: Both supply and demand in the fundamentals are weak, and news about Indonesian nickel mines has caused disturbances [2][27]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - Fundamental Data: Gold T+D closed at 975.82 with a 0.12% daily increase; Comex gold 2602 closed at 4368.70 with a 0.11% increase.沪银2602 closed at 15376 with a -0.93% decrease; Comex silver 2602 closed at 67.395 with a 2.97% increase [4]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest:沪金2602 trading volume was 328,878, an increase of 87,762; open interest was 189,662, a decrease of 7,090.沪银2602 trading volume was 1,904,227, an increase of 332,489; open interest was 337,467, a decrease of 25,935 [4]. - Inventory: 沪金 inventory was 91,716 kg, unchanged;沪银 inventory was 899,636 kg, a decrease of 12,528 kg [4]. - Spread: Gold T+D to AU2602 spread was -4.08, unchanged; 白银T+D to AG2602 spread was 58, an increase of 1 [4]. - Trend Intensity: Gold trend intensity is 0; silver trend intensity is 0 [6]. Copper - Fundamental Data: 沪铜主力合约 closed at 93,180 with a 0.63% daily increase; 伦铜3M电子盘 closed at 11,871 with a 1.22% increase [8]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: 沪铜指数 trading volume was 314,112, an increase of 25,585; open interest was 631,942, an increase of 9,906. 伦铜3M电子盘 trading volume was 19,401, a decrease of 11,963; open interest was 342,000, a decrease of 2,759 [8]. - Inventory: 沪铜 inventory was 45,739, an increase of 1,089; 伦铜 inventory was 160,400, a decrease of 3,875 [8]. - Spread: LME copper cash-to -3M spread was 4.73, an increase of 18.62; 现货对期货近月价差 was -160, a decrease of 20 [8]. - Trend Intensity: Copper trend intensity is 0 [10]. Zinc - Fundamental Data: 沪锌主力收盘价 was 23,075 with a 0.17% daily increase; 伦锌3M电子盘收盘价 was 3,078 with a 0.65% increase [11]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: 沪锌主力成交量 was 88,361, an increase of 2,041; open interest was 86,365, an increase of 2,640. 伦锌成交量 was 8,494, a decrease of 14,475; open interest was 227,461, an increase of 449 [11]. - Inventory: 沪锌期货库存 was 45,178, a decrease of 771; LME zinc inventory was 99,900, an increase of 500 [11]. - Trend Intensity: Zinc trend intensity is 0 [13]. Lead - Fundamental Data: 沪铅主力收盘价 was 16,880 with a 0.57% daily increase; 伦铅3M电子盘收盘价 was 1,984.5 with a 1.25% increase [14]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: 沪铅主力成交量 was 56,461, an increase of 25,238; open interest was 62,177, an increase of 6,505. 伦铅成交量 was 5,862, a decrease of 6,084; open interest was 176,668, a decrease of 415 [14]. - Inventory: 沪铅期货库存 was 14,187, a decrease of 842; LME lead inventory was 258,625, a decrease of 3,500 [14]. - Trend Intensity: Lead trend intensity is 0 [14]. Tin - Fundamental Data: 沪锡主力合约 closed at 343,040 with a 2.59% daily increase; 伦锡3M电子盘 closed at 42,975 with a 0.13% increase [16]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: 沪锡主力合约 trading volume was 240,305, a decrease of 3,224; open interest was 33,801, a decrease of 107. 伦锡3M电子盘 trading volume was 180, a decrease of 9; open interest was 13,988, an increase of 53 [16]. - Inventory: 沪锡 inventory was 7,844, an increase of 242; 伦锡 inventory was 4,645, an increase of 220 [16]. - Spread: SMM 1 tin ingot price was 329,900, an increase of 9,900; 现货对期货主力价差 was 3,020, a decrease of 1,780 [16]. - Trend Intensity: Tin trend intensity is 1 [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Fundamental Data: 沪铝主力合约收盘价 was 22,185; 沪氧化铝主力合约收盘价 was 2,500; 铝合金主力合约收盘价 was 21,235 [21]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: 沪铝主力合约成交量 was 225,621; 沪氧化铝主力合约成交量 was 198,046; 铝合金主力合约成交量 was 4,335 [21]. - Inventory: 国内铝锭社会库存 was 56.10 million tons; 上期所铝锭仓单 was 7.62 million tons [21]. - Trend Intensity: Aluminum trend intensity is 1; alumina trend intensity is -1; cast aluminum alloy trend intensity is 0 [22]. Platinum and Palladium - Fundamental Data: 铂金期货2606 closed at 533.55 with a -1.67% decrease; 钯金期货2606 closed at 480.20 with a 0.76% increase [23]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: 广铂 trading volume was 153,911, a decrease of 948; open interest was 38,087, an increase of 2,123. 广钯 trading volume was 108,461, an increase of 38,341; open interest was 15,221, an increase of 1,371 [23]. - ETF Holdings: Platinum ETF holdings (ounces) were 3,239,006, an increase of 17,641; palladium ETF holdings (ounces) were 1,126,738, an increase of 162 [23]. - Trend Intensity: Platinum trend intensity is 1; palladium trend intensity is 1 [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: 沪镍主力（收盘价） was 117,180; 不锈钢主力（收盘价） was 12,720 [27]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: 沪镍主力（成交量） was 210,637; 不锈钢主力（成交量） was 388,060 [27]. - Industry News: Indonesian policies and regulations have an impact on the nickel market, such as the takeover of a nickel mine by the Indonesian forestry working group and sanctions on mining companies [27][28]. - Trend Intensity: Nickel trend intensity is 0; stainless steel trend intensity is 0 [31].