南华期货2026年国债年度展望：供需再平衡温和再通胀

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The core framework for interest rate bond pricing remains the attitude of monetary policy, market expectations (liquidity), and fundamental expectations [2][92]. - The market has a highly consistent confidence and expectation in re - inflation, but the specific height of recovery depends on the improvement of demand [2][92]. - Next year, external demand is unlikely to continue to provide "above - expected" growth, and the actual growth rate will offset the contribution of re - inflation to the nominal growth rate to some extent [2][92]. - The bond market is facing two major risks: marginal improvement in inflation and supply - demand mismatch at the ultra - long end. The supply - demand mismatch of ultra - long - term government bonds will become more obvious [2][92]. - Monetary policy will maintain a supportive stance, and the central bank's increase in tools such as bond - buying may bring phased market opportunities [2][92]. - Next year, interest rates will generally continue the low - level shock market, and the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds may fluctuate between 1.7% - 2% [3][93]. - It is recommended to increase timing and attention to market data to play for band trading opportunities. Before the cycle indicator indicates that the interest rate will break away from the low level, each approach to the upper limit of the range will be a suitable allocation opportunity [3][93]. - In terms of arbitrage strategies, considering the inevitable rise of inflation and the necessity of maintaining monetary easing under the current fundamentals, steepening the 30 - 2 yield curve is the most certain choice [3][93]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Priced by Marginal Increment - Spring Festival - end of March: There was a resonance between tightened funds and risk appetite, and policy expectations were significantly revised [6]. - Second Quarter: Geopolitical disturbances led to the early implementation of easing policies [6]. - Third Quarter: Market sentiment reversed [6]. - End of October - End of the Year: The restart of bond - buying triggered new policy games [6]. 2. Interest Rate Decomposition: Correctly View "Re - inflation" - Price Trend Improvement: CPI and PPI showed certain trends of improvement, with PPI having a more obvious bottom - up trend [26]. - Consistent Direction, Diverse Optimism Levels - Do not over - estimate the effectiveness of anti - involution policies [6]. - The rise in commodity prices is structurally obvious, with price increases concentrated in some industries [6]. - Demand determines the height of the rebound. The recovery height of CPI and PPI depends on demand improvement, with CPI expected to be between 0 - 1% and PPI between - 1% - 1% [6][40]. 3. Interest Rate Decomposition: The Elasticity of Real Interest Rates Still Lies in Domestic Demand - Economic Growth: Expected Difference Abroad, Elasticity at Home: In 2025, GDP showed certain growth characteristics, and the expected difference in economic growth mainly comes from external factors, while the elasticity lies in domestic demand [46]. - Exports: Maintaining Stability, Difficult to Have Expected Differences - Geopolitical visibility has increased, and the global cycle is improving, but external demand is unlikely to exceed expectations [54]. - The proportion of exports is at a historical high, and the export situation of some countries such as South Korea shows a downward trend in the central level [54][61]. - Domestic Demand: Policy Support, Emphasizing Both Quantity and Structure - Policy Emphasizes Quantity and Quality, "Price" over "Quantity": The Central Economic Work Conference at the end of the year emphasized high - quality development and structural adjustment. In the context of continuing the dual - loose monetary and fiscal policies, the increase in policy intensity in 2026 is likely to be weaker than in 2025 [69][70]. - Still Facing Downward Pressure in the Short Term: Domestic demand, especially consumption and investment, still faces certain downward pressure, and the non - government sector's financing is continuously sluggish and the leverage ratio is still high [72][75]. 4. How to Understand Monetary Policy? - Supportive Policy Stance Remains Consistent: Although the use of traditional aggregate tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts has converged this year, the improvement of the policy tool system has reduced the necessity of continuous use of aggregate policies, and the overall capital cost is low. As long as there is pressure on the demand side, there is no need to doubt the central bank's policy stance [79]. - The Necessity of Interest Rate Cuts is Decreasing, but the "Threshold" to Become a Market Catalyst is also Decreasing: There are concerns that the supply pressure of ultra - long bonds will be too large next year. Bond - buying by the central bank corresponds to the release of long - term liquidity, and if the central bank extends the bond - buying period, it means further improvement in the expectation of monetary easing [91]. 5. Summary and Outlook - Re - emphasize the core framework for interest rate bond pricing, the situation of re - inflation and external demand, and the risks faced by the bond market [92]. - Forecast the trend of interest rates next year, and give suggestions on trading and arbitrage strategies [93].