黑色建材日报-20251222

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive on Friday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate. The supply and demand of rebar both increased this week, and the inventory continued to decline. The output of hot-rolled coils decreased significantly, the apparent demand decreased slightly, and the inventory continued to decline. The steel prices are expected to remain volatile at the bottom. Affected by the export license management, the prices of finished steel products are under short - term pressure, and they are expected to gradually digest the policy impact later. The willingness for winter stockpiling is not strong this year, and large - scale replenishment may not occur. The macro - level is still in a policy window period, and attention should be paid to whether the "dual carbon" policy will be strengthened again and have a marginal impact on the steel industry [2]. - The latest overseas iron ore shipments continued to increase. The daily average hot metal output continued to decline, and the port inventory continued to increase while the steel mill's imported ore inventory dropped to the lowest level in the same period of the past five years. The iron ore price is expected to mainly operate within the oscillation range [5]. - The macro - sentiment fluctuations in the market have temporarily ended, and the atmosphere in the black chain index has clearly warmed up. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, and the supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. The future market trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are mainly led by the direction of the black sector, the cost - push problem of manganese ore in the manganese - silicon segment, and the supply - contraction problem of ferrosilicon due to losses. Attention should be paid to the "dual carbon" policy and possible emergencies in the manganese - ore segment [9][10]. - The industrial silicon price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether there are new supply - side disturbances in the northwest. The polysilicon market has a weak balance between the upstream and downstream, and the futures price trend is expected to be unstable. Attention should be paid to the actual spot transactions and warehouse - receipt registration [13][16]. - The glass market is expected to continue the narrow - range oscillation trend in the short term due to weak demand and limited production capacity contraction. The soda - ash market's rebound strength is limited, and short positions can be considered for timely layout [19][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Steel Products Rebar - Market Data: The trading volume was 84,173 tons, a decrease of 8,030 tons. The main - contract open interest was 1.568866 million lots, a decrease of 7,077 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price was 3,170 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3,300 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day [1]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply and demand both increased this week, and the inventory continued to decline, in line with off - season characteristics. The terminal demand is still weak, and the steel price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. Affected by the export license management, the price is under short - term pressure [2]. Hot - Rolled Coils - Market Data: The main - contract closing price was 3,269 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton (- 0.24%). The daily registered warehouse receipts were 103,404 tons, unchanged. The main - contract open interest was 1.191178 million lots, an increase of 1,622 lots. The Lecong aggregated price was 3,270 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3,270 yuan/ton, both decreasing by 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The output decreased significantly, the apparent demand decreased slightly, and the inventory continued to decline. The inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils is relatively prominent, and the steel price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [2]. Iron Ore - Market Data: The main - contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 780.00 yuan/ton on Friday, with a change of + 0.32% (+ 2.50), and the open interest increased by 16,750 lots to 534,900 lots. The weighted open - interest was 920,400 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 795 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 64.63 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.65% [4]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The overseas shipments continued to increase, the daily average hot - metal output continued to decline, the port inventory increased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory dropped to the lowest level in the same period of the past five years. The iron ore price is expected to mainly operate within the oscillation range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Data: On December 19th, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed up 0.48% at 5,808 yuan/ton. The spot - market quotation of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5,720 yuan/ton, converted to the futures price of 5,910 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 102 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed up 0.86% at 5,640 yuan/ton. The spot - market quotation of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 60 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The macro - sentiment fluctuations have ended, and the black chain index has warmed up. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, and that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. The future market trends are affected by the black sector, manganese - ore cost, and ferrosilicon supply contraction. Attention should be paid to the "dual carbon" policy and manganese - ore emergencies [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - Market Data: The main - contract (SI2605) of industrial silicon closed at 8,690 yuan/ton on Friday, with a change of + 0.52% (+ 45). The weighted - contract open interest decreased by 2,503 lots to 407,065 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract was 510 yuan/ton. The price of 421 was 9,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract was 160 yuan/ton [12]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13]. Polysilicon - Market Data: The main - contract (PS2605) of polysilicon closed at 60,245 yuan/ton on Friday, with a change of + 1.59% (+ 945). The weighted - contract open interest decreased by 2,718 lots to 247,847 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, and the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.4 yuan/kg, all unchanged. The basis of the main contract was - 7,845 yuan/ton [14][15]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The market has a weak balance between the upstream and downstream, and the futures price trend is expected to be unstable. Attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and warehouse - receipt registration [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Market Data: The main glass contract closed at 1,041 yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of 1.98% (- 21). The North China large - plate quotation was 1,030 yuan, unchanged; the Central China quotation was 1,080 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises was 58.558 million boxes, an increase of 331,000 boxes (+ 0.57%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 26,289 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their short positions by 28,730 lots [18]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The demand recovery is weak, and the market is expected to continue the narrow - range oscillation trend in the short term [19]. Soda Ash - Market Data: The main soda - ash contract closed at 1,176 yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of 1.42% (- 17). The Shahe heavy - soda quotation was 1,130 yuan, a decrease of 17 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises was 1.4993 million tons, an increase of 5,000 tons (+ 0.57%), including 771,700 tons of heavy - soda ash inventory (a decrease of 18,800 tons) and 727,600 tons of light - soda ash inventory (an increase of 23,800 tons). The top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 10,996 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their short positions by 8,502 lots [20]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The downstream demand is weak, and the market's rebound strength is limited. Short positions can be considered for timely layout [21].