五矿期货农产品早报-20251222

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Protein Meal: With support from costs and pressured crushing margins, soybean meal is expected to trade in a range. The bottom of import costs may have emerged, but upward potential requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, but there is support as the de - stocking season approaches [3][5]. - Oils: Palm oil prices are currently suppressed by high production in Malaysia and Indonesia. However, the current inventory build - up may reverse in Q1 next year due to seasonal factors. It is recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [7][9]. - Sugar: Newly estimated increases in production from major sugar - producing countries will shift the global supply - demand balance from shortage to surplus. International sugar prices may lack significant upward momentum until Q1 next year. With the continued opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window, a bearish view is maintained, but short - term观望 is advised due to low domestic sugar prices [12][13]. - Cotton: Although the peak season was lackluster, post - season demand is not bad, and the negative impact of a domestic bumper harvest has been digested. Uncertainty over the Xinjiang cotton target price subsidy policy has led to short - term capital inflows, but the likelihood of a unilateral trend is low due to unconfirmed news and hedging pressure [16][18]. - Eggs: The futures market previously overestimated the peak - season inventory build - up, resulting in high premiums. In the near term, the futures market will likely squeeze out premiums, and it is recommended to sell on rebounds. In the long term, although there is an expectation of capacity reduction, the overall supply decline is limited, so attention should be paid to the upper pressure [19][20]. - Pigs: As consumption is set to increase, the spot market will drive the futures market to stabilize. However, the near - term rebound space is limited due to high supply. It is recommended to sell on rebounds after the consumption - driven rebound. In the long term, with the theme of capacity reduction and low valuations, it is advisable to consider reverse spreads or go long on distant contracts [22][23]. 3. Summary by Directory Protein Meal - Market Conditions: Last Friday, CBOT soybeans closed lower due to slow US soybean sales and expectations of a bumper harvest in South America. Domestic soybean meal spot prices fluctuated by 10 - 20 yuan/ton over the weekend. Last week, soybean meal trading volume decreased, and提货 also declined. MYSTEEL estimates this week's soybean crushing volume at 2.1306 million tons, slightly higher than last week's 2.1206 million tons. The feed enterprise inventory days were 9.23, up 0.1 days from the previous week [3]. - Weather: Forecasts indicate above - normal rainfall in major Brazilian soybean - growing regions in the next two weeks, and normal rainfall in major Argentine regions, except for Buenos Aires Province, where rainfall is expected to be low [3]. - Strategy: With support from costs and pressured crushing margins, soybean meal is expected to trade in a range [5]. Oils - Market Conditions: SPPOMA data shows that Malaysian palm oil production increased by 6.87% in the first ten days of December but decreased by 2.97% in the first 15 days. Shipments decreased by 15.89% - 16.37% in the first 15 days of December. As of December 1, 2025, India's vegetable oil inventory was 1.623 million tons, and November's edible vegetable oil imports were 1.151 million tons, with both month - on - month and year - on - year consumption decreasing. On December 19, Indonesia announced the start of B50 biodiesel road tests, expected to last about six months, with the policy likely to be implemented in H2 2026 [7]. - Strategy: High palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia this year has suppressed prices. In the short term, poor export data and high - year - on - year production are driving prices down. However, the current inventory build - up may reverse in Q1 next year. It is recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [9]. Sugar - Market Conditions: On Friday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were weak. The May contract closed at 5,088 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton or 0.27% from the previous day. Spot prices in Guangxi and Yunnan decreased, while processing plant prices remained stable. In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons. From January to November 2025, cumulative imports were 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 tons. In the second half of November, Brazil's central - southern region had a 21.08% year - on - year decrease in sugarcane crushing and a 32.94% decrease in sugar production. As of December 15, India's cumulative sugar production was 779,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 172,000 tons [11][12]. - Strategy: With expected increases in production from major sugar - producing countries, the global sugar market will shift from shortage to surplus. International sugar prices may lack upward momentum until Q1 next year. With the continued opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window, a bearish view is maintained, but short - term观望 is advised due to low domestic sugar prices [13]. Cotton - Market Conditions: On Friday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices rose slightly. The May contract closed at 14,015 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton or 0.39% from the previous day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B rose 6 yuan/ton to 15,145 yuan/ton. In November 2025, China imported 120,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons. From January to November 2025, cumulative imports were 900,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6 million tons. As of December 19, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous week and 1.4 percentage points from the same period last year. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.04 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons. The USDA's December report estimated the 2025/26 global cotton production at 26.08 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons from November [15][16]. - Strategy: Although the peak season was lackluster, post - season demand is not bad, and the negative impact of a domestic bumper harvest has been digested. Uncertainty over the Xinjiang cotton target price subsidy policy has led to short - term capital inflows, but the likelihood of a unilateral trend is low due to unconfirmed news and hedging pressure [17][18]. Eggs - Market Conditions: Over the weekend, domestic egg prices were mostly stable, with some areas slightly weaker. Egg supply is sufficient, and downstream demand is average. There is a risk of a slight decline in egg prices at the beginning of the week, but prices may rebound slightly later as the New Year approaches and traders may replenish inventory [19]. - Strategy: The futures market previously overestimated the peak - season inventory build - up, resulting in high premiums. In the near term, the futures market will likely squeeze out premiums, and it is recommended to sell on rebounds. In the long term, although there is an expectation of capacity reduction, the overall supply decline is limited, so attention should be paid to the upper pressure [20]. Pigs - Market Conditions: Over the weekend, domestic pig prices trended lower. Some farms may increase supply at the end of the year, and demand may decline slightly after the Winter Solstice. However, after continuous price drops, farmers' resistance to selling has increased, and short - term prices may rise in the north and stabilize in the south [22]. - Strategy: As consumption is set to increase, the spot market will drive the futures market to stabilize. However, the near - term rebound space is limited due to high supply. It is recommended to sell on rebounds after the consumption - driven rebound. In the long term, with the theme of capacity reduction and low valuations, it is advisable to consider reverse spreads or go long on distant contracts [23].