下游兑现去产能，工业硅反弹

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, industrial silicon prices rebounded from a low level. The main reason was that the polysilicon industry entered the substantial stage of capacity reduction, the supply - demand structure of the silicon material market continued to improve, and China's industrial output growth showed signs of recovery. Technically, the main contract stabilized and rebounded rapidly after testing the 8300 level, and it is expected that the futures price of industrial silicon will continue the rebound trend [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data | Contract | 12 - 19 | 12 - 12 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Industrial Silicon Main Contract | 8690.00 | 8390.00 | 300.00 | 3.58% | Yuan/ton | | Oxygen - containing 553 Spot | 9200.00 | 9200.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | Non - oxygen - containing 553 Spot | 9200.00 | 9200.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | 421 Spot | 9650.00 | 9650.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | 3303 Spot | 10350.00 | 10350.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | Organic Silicon DMC Spot | 13600.00 | 13600.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | Polysilicon Dense Material Spot | 52.00 | 52.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | Industrial Silicon Social Inventory | 55.3 | 56.1 | - 0.8 | - 1.43% | Ten thousand tons | [3] Market Analysis and Outlook - Supply side: Xinjiang's operating rate remained at a relatively high level of 88%, the operating rate in the southwest was weak during the dry season, and the production centers in Inner Mongolia and Gansu shifted downwards, with the supply side continuing to shrink. - Demand side: Leading polysilicon manufacturers planned to significantly adjust spot prices, and the market mainly executed historical orders. Silicon wafer prices approached the cash cost line, and the phenomenon of low - price dumping by second - and third - tier enterprises decreased significantly. Due to the recent sharp increase in silver prices, the cost pressure of battery cells climbed, and leading enterprises signaled price increases. At the component end, due to the small number of distributed project starts, leading enterprises' plans to raise prices were resisted by downstream, and the terminal market was sensitive to prices. - Inventory: Last week, the social inventory of industrial silicon rose to 561,000 tons, and the center of the industrial silicon spot market shifted downwards due to the decline in futures prices [2][5][9]. Industry News - On February 18, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced that as of December 22, 2025, the minimum opening order quantity for trading instructions of polysilicon futures contracts PS2601 - PS2612 was adjusted from 1 lot to 5 lots, while the minimum closing order quantity remained 1 lot [10]. - At the 2025 Photovoltaic Industry Annual Conference on December 18, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association did not predict the next - year's new installed capacity. Analysts predicted that in 2026, under the high - base effect, the new installed capacity in the first half of the year would face great pressure, and there was a high probability of the first negative growth in domestic installed capacity since the photovoltaic grid - parity era. Under conservative/neutral/optimistic scenarios, the new installed capacity in 2026 was expected to be 185/225/275GW. If the new installed capacity in 2025 was assumed to be 285GW, the corresponding year - on - year growth rates would be - 35%/ - 21%/ - 4%. Some institutions predicted that if the industry restored reasonable profitability, the unit price of integrated components might rise to about 0.9 - 1 yuan per watt [11]. Related Charts The report provides charts on industrial silicon production, exports, domestic social inventory, Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt inventory, production of main producing areas, organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, and spot prices of industrial silicon and related products, but no specific data analysis in the text is provided for these charts [12][18][19].