Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, although there is uncertainty at the end of the year due to some funds cashing in on profits, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips as policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [4]. - For treasury bonds, in the short term, the bond market is expected to fluctuate due to weak domestic demand and institutional behavior disturbances. There is an expectation of a rebound after the supply - demand relationship is repaired at the end of the year [6]. - For precious metals, with the release of overseas central bank monetary policy risks and the expectation of a loose monetary policy from the Fed, gold and silver prices are expected to remain strong. It is recommended to hold long positions [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different outlooks. For example, copper is expected to trade in a high - level range; aluminum is expected to oscillate and gradually rise; zinc may have an upward impulse in the short term but is expected to be weak in the medium term; lead is expected to be strong in a wide - range in the short term; nickel is recommended to be observed in the short term; tin is expected to be affected by supply and demand and trade in a range; lithium carbonate is recommended to be observed due to uncertainty in supply recovery; alumina is recommended to be observed due to cost and supply factors; stainless steel is expected to continue to build a bottom in a range; and cast aluminum alloy is expected to trade in a range [11][13][16][17][19][21][22][24][25][27]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation. Iron ore prices are expected to trade in a range. Glass is expected to trade in a narrow range, and soda ash is recommended to consider short positions. Manganese - silicon and silicon - iron prices are expected to be affected by the black sector and their own fundamentals. Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices are expected to follow the market with some uncertainties [30][32][34][35][38][40][43]. - For energy and chemicals, rubber is recommended for short - term operations. Crude oil is recommended to wait and see. Methanol is recommended to be observed. Urea is recommended to go long on dips. Pure benzene and styrene can be considered for long - position operations on non - integrated profits. PVC is recommended to go short on rallies. Ethylene glycol needs to guard against the risk of a rebound. PTA can be considered for long - position operations on dips. Para - xylene can be considered for long - position operations on dips. Polyethylene can go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips. Polypropylene is expected to be supported by a change in the cost - supply pattern in the first quarter of next year [49][51][53][56][58][61][63][65][67][69][71]. - For agricultural products, for live pigs, it is recommended to short after a consumption - driven rebound in the near term and consider reverse spreads or long positions in the far term. For eggs, it is recommended to short on rallies in the near term and pay attention to the upper pressure in the far term. For soybean and rapeseed meal, prices are expected to oscillate. For oils and fats, short - term operations based on high - frequency data are recommended. For sugar, short - term observation is recommended. For cotton, it is unlikely to have a unilateral trend [74][76][79][81][84][87]. Summaries by Directory Macro - Financial Stock Index - Market Information: The National Internet Information Office and the CSRC are cracking down on false information in the capital market. The National Healthcare Security Administration includes AI - assisted diagnosis in the price composition of pathological diagnosis. The Ministry of Commerce aims to boost consumption. Chinese scientists have made a breakthrough in optical computing chips [2]. - Basis Ratio of Index Futures: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have specific basis ratios [3]. - Strategy: Although there is uncertainty at the end of the year, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - Market Information: On Friday, the prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed. In November, the number of new foreign - invested enterprises increased, but the actual use of foreign capital decreased. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations and had a net injection of funds [5]. - Strategy: The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to weak domestic demand and institutional behavior disturbances. There is an expectation of a rebound after the supply - demand relationship is repaired at the end of the year [6]. Precious Metals - Market Information: Shanghai gold and silver prices rose. COMEX gold and silver prices are at certain levels. The Bank of Japan's interest - rate hike was less hawkish than expected, and the prices of gold and silver stabilized and rebounded. The holdings of major gold and silver ETFs increased, and the silver lease rate rose slightly [7][8]. - Strategy: With the release of overseas central bank monetary policy risks and the expectation of a loose monetary policy from the Fed, gold and silver prices are expected to remain strong. It is recommended to hold long positions [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Market Information: The Japanese interest - rate hike led to a rise in copper prices. LME copper inventory decreased, and the domestic warehouse receipt increased. The domestic copper spot import was at a loss, and the refined - scrap copper price difference widened [10]. - Strategy: The Fed's loose monetary policy and the easing of concerns about the US stock AI bubble are positive. However, the supply - demand situation restricts the upward movement of copper prices. It is expected to trade in a high - level range [11]. Aluminum - Market Information: Overseas supply disturbances pushed up the price of LME aluminum. The position of the Shanghai aluminum contract increased, and the inventory situation changed. The domestic spot was at a discount to the futures [12]. - Strategy: With the decline in global aluminum inventory and positive external factors, the price of aluminum is well - supported. However, tariff and seasonal factors pose pressure. It is expected to oscillate and gradually rise [13]. Zinc - Market Information: The price of Shanghai zinc index rose slightly. The inventory and basis of zinc in different markets changed [14][15]. - Strategy: The shortage of domestic zinc ore is expected to ease. The LME zinc inventory increased, and the domestic social inventory decreased. The price is expected to be weak in the medium term but may have an upward impulse in the short term [16]. Lead - Market Information: The price of Shanghai lead index rose. The inventory and basis of lead in different markets changed [17]. - Strategy: The supply of domestic lead ingots is expected to tighten, and the inventory is at a relatively low level. The price is expected to be strong in a wide - range in the short term [17]. Nickel - Market Information: The price of Shanghai nickel rebounded significantly. The spot premium and cost of nickel remained stable, while the price of nickel iron declined slightly [18]. - Strategy: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large. It is recommended to observe in the short term [19]. Tin - Market Information: The price of Shanghai tin rose. The production of tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi faced different problems, and the demand was affected by high prices [20]. - Strategy: The supply and demand of tin are both weak. The price is expected to follow the market with some uncertainties [21]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The price of lithium carbonate rose. The price of lithium concentrate decreased slightly [22]. - Strategy: The short - term supply recovery expectation was falsified. It is recommended to observe due to the uncertainty of the mid - term fundamentals [22]. Alumina - Market Information: The price of the alumina index decreased. The domestic spot was at a premium to the futures, and the overseas price remained stable [23]. - Strategy: With the recovery of ore supply and over - capacity in the smelting end, it is recommended to observe due to cost and supply factors [24]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: The price of the stainless - steel contract rose. The spot price increased, and the inventory decreased [24]. - Strategy: The spot market is inactive, and the price is expected to continue to build a bottom in a range [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The price of the cast - aluminum alloy contract rose. The position and inventory changed [26]. - Strategy: With a strong cost and supply disturbances, but weak demand and delivery pressure, the price is expected to trade in a range [27]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market Information: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased slightly. The warehouse receipt and position of the contracts changed. The spot prices in different regions remained stable or decreased slightly [29]. - Strategy: Terminal demand is weak, and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils is relatively high. Steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation. The export license policy may have a short - term impact [30]. Iron Ore - Market Information: The price of the iron - ore contract rose slightly. The spot price and basis changed [31]. - Strategy: The supply of iron ore is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. The port inventory is increasing, and the steel - mill inventory is at a low level. The price is expected to trade in a range [32]. Glass and Soda Ash - Market Information: The price of the glass contract decreased. The inventory increased, and the positions of long and short decreased. The price of the soda - ash contract decreased. The inventory increased, and the positions of long and short decreased [33][35]. - Strategy: The demand for glass is weak, and it is expected to trade in a narrow range. The demand for soda ash is weak, and it is recommended to consider short positions [34][35]. Manganese - Silicon and Silicon - Iron - Market Information: The prices of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron contracts rose. The spot prices increased, and the basis changed [36]. - Strategy: The prices are expected to be affected by the black sector and their own fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the cost of manganese ore and the supply contraction of silicon - iron [38]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Information: The price of the industrial - silicon contract rose. The spot price remained stable, and the basis changed. The price of the polysilicon contract rose. The spot price remained stable, and the basis changed [39][41]. - Strategy: The price of industrial silicon is expected to follow the market with some uncertainties. The price of polysilicon is expected to be unstable, and attention should be paid to spot transactions and warehouse - receipt registration [40][43]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Market Information: The price of rubber oscillated weakly. The开工 rate of tire enterprises changed, and the inventory increased [45][47]. - Strategy: A neutral approach is recommended for short - term operations. A hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is recommended [49]. Crude Oil - Market Information: The price of the INE crude - oil contract decreased. The inventory of refined oil products changed [50]. - Strategy: A low - buying and high - selling range strategy is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now [51]. Methanol - Market Information: The regional spot and futures prices of methanol changed. The MTO profit decreased [52]. - Strategy: After the realization of positive factors, the market is in a short - term consolidation. The port pressure remains, and it is recommended to observe [53]. Urea - Market Information: The regional spot and futures prices of urea changed. The basis decreased [54][55]. - Strategy: The supply is decreasing, and the demand is increasing. The price is expected to build a bottom in a range. It is recommended to go long on dips [56]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The prices and basis of pure benzene and styrene changed. The supply and demand indicators also changed [57]. - Strategy: It is possible to go long on non - integrated profits of styrene before the first quarter of next year [58]. PVC - Market Information: The price of the PVC contract decreased. The spot price, basis, and cost changed. The开工 rate and inventory also changed [59]. - Strategy: The domestic supply is strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to go short on rallies [61]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The price of the ethylene - glycol contract decreased. The supply, demand, and inventory indicators changed [62]. - Strategy: The supply is expected to improve, but the inventory is increasing. It is necessary to guard against the risk of a rebound [63]. PTA - Market Information: The price of the PTA contract increased. The supply, demand, and inventory indicators changed [64]. - Strategy: The supply is in high - level maintenance, and the demand is affected by the off - season. It is recommended to consider long - position operations on dips [65]. Para - Xylene - Market Information: The price of the para - xylene contract increased. The supply, demand, and inventory indicators changed [66]. - Strategy: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to consider long - position operations on dips [67]. Polyethylene - Market Information: The price of the polyethylene contract decreased. The spot price, basis, and inventory changed [68]. - Strategy: The price is expected to be supported by a change in the cost - supply pattern. It can go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [69]. Polypropylene - Market Information: The price of the polypropylene contract decreased. The spot price, basis, and inventory changed [70]. - Strategy: The supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory pressure is high. It is expected to be supported by a change in the cost - supply pattern in the first quarter of next year [71]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market Information: The price of live pigs decreased. The supply is expected to be sufficient, and the demand may decline slightly [73]. - Strategy: It is recommended to short after a consumption - driven rebound in the near term and consider reverse spreads or long positions in the far term [74]. Eggs - Market Information: The price of eggs remained stable with a slight decline in some areas. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is general [75]. - Strategy: It is recommended to short on rallies in the near term and pay attention to the upper pressure in the far term [76]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Information: The price of CBOT soybeans decreased. The domestic spot price of soybean meal changed slightly. The supply and demand indicators changed [77][78]. - Strategy: The price is expected to oscillate due to cost support and pressure on crushing margins [79]. Oils and Fats - Market Information: The price of domestic oils and fats decreased. The production and export data of Malaysian palm oil changed. The inventory and consumption data of Indian vegetable oils changed [80]. - Strategy: Short - term operations based on high - frequency data are recommended [81]. Sugar - Market Information: The price of the sugar contract decreased. The spot price decreased. The import and production data of sugar changed [82][83]. - Strategy: Short - term observation is recommended due to the expected increase in global supply [84]. Cotton - Market Information: The price of the cotton contract increased slightly. The spot price increased. The import, production, and inventory data of cotton changed [85][86]. - Strategy: It is unlikely to have a unilateral trend due to uncertain policies and hedging pressure [87].
宏观金融类：文字早评2025/12/22星期一-20251222
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-12-22 02:11