Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the Iron Ore 2605 contract rose 2.63%. The port iron ore inventory continued to accumulate, and the molten iron production continued to decline, with both supply and demand being weak. Affected by the relatively strong sentiment in the commodity market last week, it rebounded in a volatile manner. Iron ore is expected to be in a weak and volatile state in the medium term. For single - side trading, it is advisable to be cautiously short - biased at high levels. If it stabilizes above the important pressure level of 800 yuan/ton in the future, it is recommended to exit and wait and see. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [4][5][35] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Disk Analysis - This section includes futures price, spread analysis, and position analysis, but specific data and analysis are not provided in the given text [6][10] II. Important Market Information - In 2025, China's steel exports continued the trend of "increasing volume but decreasing price". From January to November, China exported 1.08 billion tons of steel, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%, and the annual export volume is expected to reach a record high. The average export price of steel was 696 US dollars per ton, a year - on - year decrease of 8.3%. - Australian mining company Genmin Limited recently completed a private placement financing of 25.7 million Australian dollars (approximately 17 million US dollars) for the subsequent development of its Baniaka iron ore project in Gabon. The project has confirmed ore resources of about 759 million tons, with an initial planned production capacity of 5 million tons per year, which is expected to increase to at least 10 million tons per year, and commercial production is expected to start around the end of 2026 [13] III. Supply - side Situation - As of November 2025, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 110.54 million tons, a decrease of 770,000 tons from the previous month; the average import price was 101.49 US dollars per ton, an increase of 0.94 US dollars per ton from the previous month. - As of November 2025, Australia's iron ore shipments were 61.849 million tons, a decrease of 4.993 million tons from the previous month; Brazil's iron ore shipments were 30.963 million tons, an increase of 1.708 million tons from the first half of the month [18][20] IV. Demand - side Situation - This section involves the daily molten iron production of 247 steel mills, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills, and the procurement volume of Shanghai terminal wire rods and screws, but specific analysis is not provided in the given text [21][25][30] V. Fundamental Analysis - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore in national steel mills was 87.2395 million tons, a decrease of 1.1025 million tons month - on - month; the daily consumption of imported ore by the current sample steel mills was 2.8056 million tons, a decrease of 27,100 tons month - on - month; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 31.09 days, a decrease of 0.09 days month - on - month. - Mysteel's survey of 247 steel mills showed that the blast furnace operating rate was 78.47%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.16%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 84.93%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.20%; the steel mill profitability rate was 35.93%, unchanged month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 12.55%; the daily molten iron production was 2.2655 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 26,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 28,600 tons. - The total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 national ports was 155.1263 million tons, an increase of 812,100 tons month - on - month; the daily port clearance volume was 3.1345 million tons, a decrease of 57,400 tons; the number of ships at the port was 111, an increase of 4. - Last week, Mysteel's statistics on the full sample of independent coking enterprises showed that the capacity utilization rate was 72.05%, a decrease of 1.11%; the daily coke production was 630,000 tons, a decrease of 9,800 tons; the coke inventory was 911,000 tons, an increase of 37,800 tons. - Mysteel's survey on the profit situation per ton of coke in 30 independent coking plants across the country showed that the national average profit per ton of coke was 16 yuan/ton; the average profit of quasi - first - grade coke in Shanxi was 35 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 65 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia's second - grade coke was - 23 yuan/ton, and in Hebei's quasi - first - grade coke was 66 yuan/ton [32][33] VI. Market Outlook - The port iron ore inventory continues to accumulate, and the molten iron production continues to decline, with both supply and demand being weak. Affected by the relatively strong sentiment in the commodity market last week, it rebounded in a volatile manner. Iron ore is expected to be in a weak and volatile state in the medium term [35] VII. Operation Strategies - Single - side trading: Be cautiously short - biased at high levels. If it stabilizes above the important pressure level of 800 yuan/ton in the future, it is recommended to exit and wait and see. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [36]
华龙期货铁矿周报-20251222
Hua Long Qi Huo·2025-12-22 02:22