纯碱：“短供减量”与“长线扩产”的博弈

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market's main contradiction has shifted from "high inventory" to the game between "short - term supply reduction" and "long - term capacity expansion." Downstream demand has not substantially improved, and the long - term supply pressure from new natural soda ash capacity in Inner Mongolia remains. The price rebound's height and sustainability are challenged, and the market is expected to find a new direction through oscillations. It is recommended to be cautious in participating in the rebound, gradually lay out short positions on rallies for single - sided trading, temporarily hold off on arbitrage, and consider buying put options to replace short positions [8][37] Summary by Relevant Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main soda ash futures contract SA2605 ranged from 1,123 to 1,203 yuan/ton, with the price center moving down. As of December 19, 2025, the contract rose 50 yuan/ton for the week, a 4.44% increase, closing at 1,176 yuan/ton [5] 2. Supply and Demand of Soda Ash 2.1 Production and Capacity Analysis - As of December 18, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 721,400 tons, a 1.4 - ton (1.91%) decrease from the previous week. Light soda ash production was 331,100 tons (down 65,000 tons), and heavy soda ash production was 390,300 tons (down 75,000 tons). The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 82.74%, a 1.61% decrease from the previous week. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 89.22% (down 0.70%), the combined process capacity utilization rate was 73.07% (down 0.22%), and the overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 87.49% (down 1.33%) [9][11] 2.2 Inventory Analysis - As of December 18, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,499,300 tons, a 33,700 - ton (2.20%) decrease from Monday. Light soda ash inventory was 727,600 tons (up 10,500 tons), and heavy soda ash inventory was 771,700 tons (down 44,200 tons). Compared with the previous Thursday, it increased by 5,000 tons (0.33%). Year - on - year, it decreased by 58,100 tons (3.73%) [7][14] 2.3 Shipment Analysis - As of December 18, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 716,400 tons, an 8.12% decrease from the previous week. The overall shipment rate was 99.31%, a 6.72 - percentage - point decrease [16] 2.4 Profit Analysis - As of December 18, 2025, the theoretical profit of the combined - process soda ash in China (double - ton) was - 41 yuan/ton, a 16.33% increase from the previous week. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 66.70 yuan/ton, a 1.33% increase from the previous week [19][24] 3. Downstream Industry Situation 3.1 Float Glass Industry - As of December 18, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 155,000 tons, the same as on the 11th. The weekly output from December 12 - 18 was 1,084,900 tons, unchanged from the previous week but a 3.24% decrease year - on - year. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 58,558,000 weight cases, a 0.57% increase from the previous week and a 25.73% increase year - on - year. The inventory days were 26.5 days, 0.2 days more than the previous period [27][30] 4. Price Analysis - The price of 5,500 - kcal动力煤 decreased by 5.14% to 738 yuan/ton. The price of well - mine salt remained stable. The price of light soda ash in Central China increased by 2.61% to 1,180 yuan/ton, while most other regions remained unchanged. The price of heavy soda ash remained stable in most regions. The price of float glass decreased by 1% to 1,086 yuan/ton, and the price of 2.0 - mm photovoltaic glass decreased by 8% to 11.5 yuan/square meter. The price of 32% caustic soda in Jiangsu and dry ammonium chloride in Henan remained stable, while the price of synthetic ammonia in Jiangsu increased by 1.76% to 2,434 yuan/ton [36] 5. Operation Suggestions - Single - sided: Be cautious in participating in the rebound and gradually lay out short positions on rallies. Arbitrage: Temporarily hold off. Options: Consider buying put options to replace short positions to reduce market shocks from sudden news [38]