LLDPE：全密度部分转产，估值支撑有限

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The LLDPE market is facing challenges with limited valuation support due to factors such as partial production conversion in full - density, weakening demand, and potential supply - demand pressure from high - capacity and reduced demand [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The L2605 contract had a yesterday's closing price of 6320, a daily decline of 2.41%, a trading volume of 840011, and an open - interest change of 36438 [1]. - Basis and Spread: The 05 - contract basis was - 50 yesterday compared to - 76 the day before, and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 47 yesterday compared to - 38 the day before [1]. - Spot Prices: In the North, the spot price was 6270 yuan/ton yesterday (down from 6400 yuan/ton the day before); in the East, it was 6400 yuan/ton yesterday (down from 6500 yuan/ton the day before); in the South, it was 6400 yuan/ton yesterday (down from 6430 yuan/ton the day before) [1]. Spot News - The futures price declined under pressure, the market trading atmosphere remained weak. Upstream and futures - cash traders mostly lowered their quotes to meet annual sales targets. Downstream buyers were mostly in a wait - and - see mode. With weakening demand, the industry's willingness to hold inventory was poor, the basis weakened again, and the destocking of warehouse receipts stopped. The offers from the Middle East and the US decreased in volume and were at a premium to the domestic market. Shipments from the Middle East and the US were delayed, and more arrivals are expected in Q1 2026 [1]. Market Condition Analysis - Raw Materials and Monomers: The price of crude oil, the raw material, fluctuated, and the monomer segment was weakly stable. The supply profits of PE ethylene and ethane were compressed [2]. - Market and Demand: The PE futures price oscillated at a low level. The demand for downstream agricultural films weakened marginally, while the packaging film industry maintained rigid demand. After the recent price decline, the willingness of middle - and - downstream players to hold inventory weakened. Upstream producers offered price discounts to sell inventory at the end of the year, resulting in a slight reduction in factory inventory, and the basis was weak [2]. - Supply: Guangxi Petrochemical gradually resumed production. The current maintenance plan for December is neutral. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand [2]. Trend Intensity - The LLDPE trend intensity is 0 [2].